Rod St. Aubyn: Will Republicans Shoot Themselves In The Foot In 2016?

More Republican candidates for President announced in the past week or so and even more are planning their announcements in the coming week. While this may appear to be good news for Republicans, I fear that it may work to their detriment.

Hillary Clinton dominates the Democrat candidates and also contributions for her campaign. Even with all of the alleged scandals she continues to hold her own against her Democrat opponents. Even though I don’t like most polls, a recent CNN poll showed 57% of those polled “do not consider her (Hillary) honest and trustworthy.” One news report stated that fellow Democrat officeholders were concerned about the new poll, but her campaign stated that support, especially among women, was strong and growing stronger.

You would think that with all of the issues about Hillary’s past (Benghazi, missing emails, private email accounts, and the Clinton Foundation irregularities) it would be ripe for Republicans to take the Presidency in 2016. To top that off, we have a very unpopular President. Another recent poll showed that George W. Bush was even more popular that President Obama.

We all remember the unpopularity of George W. Bush at the end of his Presidency and how the Democrats capitalized on that in every election possible. People were war weary and the economy was struggling. Those factors were used in every congressional and senate race along with the campaign for President. In some cases it was effective.

[mks_pullquote align=”right” width=”300″ size=”24″ bg_color=”#000000″ txt_color=”#ffffff”]If the Supreme Court rules that subsidies can be used for only state-based exchanges, Republicans, who control both the House and the Senate, will be scrambling trying to find a solution. They are potentially facing a no-win situation.[/mks_pullquote]

In the next 3 weeks, the Supreme Court will be ruling on whether citizens in states like ND that do not have its own health insurance exchange are entitled to the subsidies. If the Supreme Court rules that subsidies can be used for only state-based exchanges, Republicans, who control both the House and the Senate, will be scrambling trying to find a solution. They are potentially facing a no-win situation. For those that want Obamacare to fail, they don’t want Congress to do anything. For those Republican citizens currently receiving subsidies in states without a state-based exchange, they will demand a fix.

My guess is that the Republican candidates for President will all have different ideas on this situation and they will be attacking each other rather than putting their focus on Hillary Clinton. They will all be trying to highlight the differences between them and the rest of the Republican pack.

One thing that I have noticed from past elections. Democrats have been better about rallying around the endorsed Democrat candidate for President. I can’t say the same about the Republicans. I recall talking to several supporters of Ron Paul’s past campaigns and they emphasized that they would simply not vote during that election. They wouldn’t vote for the Democrat, but they couldn’t support Romney either. So instead many stayed home. I also heard the same from other Republican supporters whose favorite was not endorsed.

There are so many divisive issues that the Republican candidates will have differing views – Obamacare, Common Core, right to life issues, immigration reform, trade policies, and defense policies including ISIS.

The 2016 election is so very important for many reasons. One of which is appointments to the Supreme Court. Several members are getting pretty old and have hinted that they may retire in the next few years. For no other reason, if the Republicans can hold onto the Senate, the House and are successful with the presidency, appointments to the Supreme Court could assure that the right judicial picks are selected.

I really worry that with so many Republican candidates for President, their ideologue supporters will find many reasons to not to support the endorsed candidate. And we could once again shoot ourselves in the foot – not just for the 2016 election, but years to come with Supreme Court appointments.