Rod St. Aubyn: It Ain't Over Until It's Over

Former New York Yankee great, Yogi Berra, has been credited with some great lines, but the one that he said, “It ain’t over ’til it’s over”, definitely applies in the political world as well. As political debates occur candidates’ poll numbers shift dramatically. Carly Fiorina’s poll numbers didn’t qualify her in the first tier of candidates for the first Fox Republican Debate. However, after her first performance in the second tier debate, her appeal and standing rocketed up and she is likely to be in that first tier during the next debate.

Many, including myself, thought that Donald Trump’s poll numbers would drop after his public spat with Fox’s Megyn Kelly. However, instead his poll numbers have increased. Some of his appeal is his straight forward, no political correctness style of speech which enamors him with many Americans. In my opinion, the public is so frustrated with Washington that they want anyone that is willing to challenge the status quo.

This seems especially apparent when you see so many conservatives advocate for The Donald, even though many of Trump’s positions in the past are far from being conservative. This evolution of his positions was highlighted in a Washington Post article. Trump once advocated for universal healthcare, but has since described Obamacare as “disaster called the big lie.” He once supported a longer waiting period for gun purchases and was opposed to “assault weapons”, but now says that he does “not support expanding background checks” and said current background checks “don’t work.” He once announced that he was “very pro-choice”, but now says that he is “pro-life.” There are many other position changes that have evolved with Donald Trump. Whether these issues will impact his future poll position is a definite “wait and see.”

[mks_pullquote align=”right” width=”300″ size=”24″ bg_color=”#ffffff” txt_color=”#000000″]We are almost a year away from the Republican convention and in the political world a lot can change in a day[/mks_pullquote]

We are almost a year away from the Republican convention and in the political world a lot can change in a day. You can bet that news reporters are searching for ANYTHING to bring down a presidential candidate, immaterial if it is distorted or not. What the candidate says to a reporter, a friend, or even an adversary can be the top story of the day and can greatly impact that candidate’s standing in the public polls.

To a great degree, this vetting can be very beneficial to the general electorate. The public needs to find out exactly how these candidates would perform if they are to be elected to highest office in this country. I only hope that this vetting is fair and not biased for some other reason.

The political turmoil is not only reserved to the Republican races for President. Now Hillary Clinton finds herself in the hot seat. After she surrendered her private server to the FBI, there have been several stories that she did in fact receive top secret information on this personal server, which is illegal based on Federal law. This potential email scandal is beginning to concern many top Democrats. There has been talk about Vice President Biden throwing his hat into the ring. Support for Sen. Bernie Sanders, an independent and self-described socialist, has gained significantly in the polls. There is even talk about recruiting former VP Al Gore into the Democratic race.

Just as these news stories can quickly change the political picture, it is far too early to rule any candidate out in these races. While I personally do not trust Hillary Clinton, just as most Americans in recent polls, I would not rule her out of this race yet. She and her husband have many supporters and they hold much influence over many top Democratic operatives. This email investigation will take many months to unravel. In addition, there will most likely be political maneuvering to stall any action long after the November, 2016 election. Who knows, she could hold claim to several “firsts” if she is elected as President – “the first female elected President” and possibly as a friend described it to me, “the first President that can make their own prison license plate.”

Be prepared for many, many twists and turns leading up to the November, 2016 Presidential Election. The presidential endorsements and the election itself promises to make many candidates look like cats with nine lives. As Yogi stated it best, “It ain’t over ’til it’s over.”