Poll: Cramer Leads Heitkamp by 12

Earlier this week we got polling, commissioned by local NBC affiliates, which indicated that Republican Kevin Cramer was leading Democrat Heidi Heitkamp by 10 points in North Dakota’s Senate race.

Bolstering that poll’s credibility is a second poll commissioned by Fox News which indicates that Cramer is beating Heitkamp by 12 points. The full polling memo is below, but here’s the key result:

Interestingly, Cramer also beats Heitkamp among women, though it’s close:

That’s a remarkable number given how much effort Democrats have put into attacking Cramer’s comments about the accusations against Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh. Those comments made national news, yet seem to have had little impact on Cramer’s popularity. If anything, is popularity seems to have surged since a Fox News poll showed Cramer with a four point lead over Heitkamp in late September.

Here are the results of all the public available polling since February:

What’s prompted this dramatic swing towards Cramer in recent weeks? I’m sure there are a lot of variables, but if I had to pick one I’d say it’s backlash from voters over how Democrats have handled the Kavanaugh situation.

This headline from NPR is telling: “Amid Kavanaugh Confirmation Battle, Democratic Enthusiasm Edge Evaporates”

If Heitkamp doesn’t vote for Kavanaugh, she probably can’t win this race. Though, at this point, voting for him is no sure bet either.

Meanwhile, Democrats are (not unjustifiably) pointing out that Heitkamp has been way behind in the polls before and won, though this seems a bit like praying for lightning to strike twice: