New York Times Analysis Picks Berg To Win Over Heitkamp In ND Senate Race


According to the New York Times’ political prognostications blog FiveThirtyEight, the recent polling showing Republican Senate candidate Rick Berg in a tie with Heidi Heitkamp doesn’t mean much. Noting the importance of oil politics to the outcome of this election, they’re still giving Berg a 78% chance of winning the race.

“According to the current FiveThirtyEight forecast, the Republican, Mr. Berg, is a 77 percent favorite,” reads the most recent post on the state. Here’s how they arrived there. Note the bottom showing the polling in the race (excluding, rightly, non-sensical polling released by the Democrats) which indicates that the Mason-Dixon polling showing the Senate race tied is a bit of an outlier:

Democrats have done a very, very good job of creating the public perception of a close race between Heitkamp and Berg. And, to be sure, Heitkamp’s well-run campaign has made the race closer than many expected it to be. But Heitkamp has simply had too much ground to make up. To be competitive with Berg she has to distance herself from her political party, and from policies/political leaders she’s been extremely loyal too, and it’s hard to imagine that many voters are taking her election year conversion all that seriously.

Rob Port

Rob Port is the editor of In 2011 he was a finalist for the Watch Dog of the Year from the Sam Adams Alliance and winner of the Americans For Prosperity Award for Online Excellence. In 2013 the Washington Post named SAB one of the nation's top state-based political blogs, and named Rob one of the state's best political reporters.

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