It’s way, way early but here’s an early look at the slate of Presidential candidates for Republicans in 2012:
Huckabee – 21%
Romney – 20%
Palin – 14%
Gingrich – 12%
Ron Paul, Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour, Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty, Rep. Mike Pence and former Senator Rick Santorum all scored in the single-digits in that order.
In a matchup against Obama, Huckabee won by the greatest margin 52 – 44. Romney was second at 50 – 45. Gringrich would lose by two points, 47 – 49, and Obama has an eight point lead over Palin 52 – 44.
All about the sort of results you’d expect to see in a poll that puts Mike Huckabee on top. But to be frank, I don’t think the ultimate nominee will be anyone at the top of this poll. Romney isn’t going to win the nomination with the government health care skeletons in his closet. Gingrich is a tired old retread more interested in selling books, and Huckabee is a big-government Republican nanny statist who is going to be operating in a primary environment dominated by tea party voters and Sarah Palin.
The person I’m looking to win the nomination for 2012 isn’t Palin herself, but rather someone who Palin could support. I think Sarahcuda knows enough about her own level of support among so-called “moderates” and Democrats to know that she’d make a poor national candidate. But she controls a lot of support in the base, so I think she’ll embrace her role as kingmaker. She’ll run in the process, only to ultimately bow out and throw her support behind another candidate.
And given her history, whoever it is will likely be an unconventional pick.