With Apologies to the Half-Witted Leftie…the Real Good News from Iraq
Ed Morrisey (Captain Ed of Captain’s Quarters) has an important article at the AEI website website, American.com:
With most of American politics focused on the troop surge and partisan maneuverings over its implementation, another story has gotten lost: The Iraqis themselves have made important progress in a basic economic issue that has fueled the sectarian divide.
The only real industry in Iraq comes from its only real natural resource: oil. Unfortunately, the reserves of oil are not shared equally among the population groups. Most of the oil is located outside the “Sunni triangle” and the Sunnis have fought the Shi’ites (and the Kurds to a lesser extent) in order to keep them from federalizing Iraq and hoarding all of the oil revenue from their respective areas of the nation. Many Sunnis have been unwilling to accept a democratically-elected government that naturally favors Shi’ites, or the federalism that favors the Kurds.
Over the past three years, the politicians were unable to settle on an equitable and secure revenue-sharing plan that still allowed the Kurds and the Shi’ites to manage their own resources. But now things have changed. The Kurds, who had held out the longest, agreed to share their oil revenues on a basis that had already won support from the Shi’ites and the Sunnis. Two days later, the Iraqi cabinet approved the deal, and the Iraqi Parliament will likely vote it into law.
This agreement got a boost earlier this month when geologists and seismologists reported oil and natural gas reserves in Anbar, a Sunni stronghold. The reserves in Anbar so far do not appear to be anywhere near as large as those in the Kurdish or Shi’ite regions. However, their existence gives the Sunnis incentives to stabilize Anbar and start building infrastructure to exploit their holdings. If they can reduce the violence, more surveys could be conducted that might find even more reserves, giving them even more opportunity to flourish.
This development sends two strong signals, both of which bode well for the long term. First, the Sunnis will now have an investment in the success of the central government. Revenue sharing will only occur if the government remains in place; if Iraq falls apart, the Sunnis will see no revenue from either area. Second and just as important, the process of reaching this agreement demonstrates that Iraq can teach itself democracy and internal diplomacy. If the three factions can reach lasting agreement on oil, it will generate momentum for the resolution of less-tractable disputes.
As usual, Ed notes both the obvious development AND the true, longer term significance. The Iraqi people are teaching themselves how to make self-governance work. No small accomplishment for an ethnically and religiously diverse people who have been under the harsh command of a brutal autocrat for nearly 40 years.
This is real progress.
Chuck
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