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Wednesday, July 02, 2008

Will McCain Have Any “Coattails”?

Question for general debate. Heard it on Rush today, and submit it for the SA commenters.

Since most of us agree that the Congressional elections are as important as the Presidential election, the importance of the “coattails” of both candidates is definitely part of the mix.
It McCain going to help Republicans increase their representation in the next Congress?

Inquiring minds want to know.

Comments

I personally think McCain is going to need to ride coattails of good GOP Congressional candidates to get elected.  Not a good, or at least not an easy, year for “my” side.

Bike Bubba on July 2, 2008 at 11:17 am

It McCain going to help Republicans increase their representation in the next Congress

Only if he wins.  One must not forget that many people vote straight party.


You don’t have to be a moron to be a liberal Democrat but it sure helps.

docdave on July 2, 2008 at 01:06 pm

Only if he wins.

I believe that is the definition of “coattails”.  My question still stands.  Is he “spreading the love” to other Republicans/conservatives, or is he playing to the lefties?


"Give the lefties a pile of money, and they’ll spend it buying votes.” - Rush Limbaugh on the “bailout”.

robert108 on July 2, 2008 at 01:16 pm

My question still stands. Is he “spreading the love” to other republicans/conservatives, or is he playing to the lefties?

Is it worth the time to point out to you that that is NOT the question you asked in your post?

THIS is what you asked.

Is McCain going to help Republicans increase their representation in the next congress?

Of course the second version of your question doesn’t “still stand”, because you never asked it!


"Here lies, in honored glory, an American soldier, known but to God.”

The times, they are a-changin’...
Bob Dylan

pparets on July 2, 2008 at 01:25 pm

Of course the second version of your question doesn’t “still stand”, because you never asked it!

What is your definition of “coattails”, then?


"Give the lefties a pile of money, and they’ll spend it buying votes.” - Rush Limbaugh on the “bailout”.

robert108 on July 2, 2008 at 01:33 pm

r108:  You made a blatant mistake! 

When your coat-tails question was answered, you created a different question and claimed that it ‘still stands’!!

A question that has not been asked cannot ‘still stand’.  That’s a fact.  Duh.


"Here lies, in honored glory, an American soldier, known but to God.”

The times, they are a-changin’...
Bob Dylan

pparets on July 2, 2008 at 01:42 pm
Avatar for Jack

McSame will get stomped like a narc at a biker rally in November.

Only the 23r;s who still love Bush and live inside a right-wing media bubble will vote for him. Y’know---people like y’all.

The 73% of Americans who disaprove or strongly disapprove of Bush will proudly vote for Obama.

Jack on July 2, 2008 at 01:48 pm

pp: You are right; in thinking I was only asking one question, I realize now that I actually asked two.

The first question goes to McCain’s campaigning style, which seems to be exclusive to himself.

The second question is: If he has any coattails, who will be riding them?  I confess to making an unwarranted assumption, which was that McCain might be looking to benefit his own Party.  In fact, it’s an open question in and of itself.

Thanks for helping me sharpen things up a bit.

You still haven’t revealed your own definition of “coattails”.  Of course, I expected you to make yet another personal attack, as that is what you do.


"Give the lefties a pile of money, and they’ll spend it buying votes.” - Rush Limbaugh on the “bailout”.

robert108 on July 2, 2008 at 01:49 pm

Jack - Only the 23r;s who still love Bush and live inside a right-wing media bubble will vote for him. Y’know---people like y’all.

Said the 11 percenter. (or 18 percenter versus 29 for Bush)

The 73% of Americans who disaprove or strongly disapprove of Bush will proudly vote for Obama.

Major fallacy of logic here.

Jack’s bubble.

likwidshoe on July 2, 2008 at 02:28 pm

r108:  First, and in answer to you original question, I do not see McCain having much ‘coat-tail’ influence on this election.  His own credentials are in question among many and he is simply not a ‘celebrity’ kind of personality.

Looking at what I just wrote, I have probably given my definition of coat-tails: a combination of credibility and personae which convinces large numbers of voters to support not only the candidate and his ideals, but also those whom he supports. 

I don’t see McCain doing that.

I would be very interested to know how you see it.


"Here lies, in honored glory, an American soldier, known but to God.”

The times, they are a-changin’...
Bob Dylan

pparets on July 2, 2008 at 02:41 pm

McCain, with all of his faults,

Or Barack Obama’s fascism?

likwidshoe on July 2, 2008 at 02:48 pm

Likwidshoe:  True, that!!


"Here lies, in honored glory, an American soldier, known but to God.”

The times, they are a-changin’...
Bob Dylan

pparets on July 2, 2008 at 02:53 pm

While channel surfing the Talking Heads, Political Wonks shows I ran across a group discussing McCain’s strategies and chances.  I didn’t catch the girls names—as there were two of them as guests on that channel, but I thought their analysis was dead on.

The darker-complected girl (mulatta with straight hair, or Indian or deeply-tanned white chick) was of the opinion that McCain was playing to the independents, the Reagan Democrats and other swing voters.  She noted that he needed the Evangelist votes and had pretty much been ignoring Conservatives.

In a nutshell she said the Middle was McCain’s evident constituency.  They did discuss the unpopularity of his pushing for Amnesty last summer and how that had almost killed his campaign, how he had tried a little damage control by stating he had gotten the message and how his recent overtures to Hispanics seems to contravene that.

They didn’t make any conclusions beyond that, but up to that point I agreed very much with her assessment of the situation as of Yesterday.

For my own part, I think this election is still up in the air.  We have two exquisitely-bad candidates.

McCain has done nothing to woo Conservatives.  My guess is that his contempt will extend all the way through November, feeling, as many old Republican politicians did, sneeringly, that Conservative voters will have no other place to go.

Looking back at other underwhelming candidates, such as Gerald Ford, Bob Dole and Bush Senior, they do have a place to go.... home on November 7th, kicking back on the La-Z-Boy.

Finally, that brings us to the question of coattails.

McCain?  Only if he is convincing Independents and Reagan Democrats and pissed-off Hillary voters to throw a lever or punch a chad for him.

The Republican party is on its own.  I will vote a Party line ticket and write in someone else—maybe even Obama.


...for great justice

2eaqln4.jpg

Move_Zig on July 2, 2008 at 02:54 pm

I would be very interested to know how you see it.

I’m in agreement with you as to outcome, but my method of arriving at that conclusion differ slightly.
Thanks for the civil answer.  /sincerity


"Give the lefties a pile of money, and they’ll spend it buying votes.” - Rush Limbaugh on the “bailout”.

robert108 on July 2, 2008 at 03:00 pm

Move_Zig:  When I recieved the latest phone-call from the McCain campaign asking for more money - I have given a fair amount so far - I said, “No, thank you. I will not give any more cash until Senator McCain clearly affirms that border security will be his first - and for the time-being - only priority, AND until he changes his energy policy by dropping the cap-and-trade scheme and demanding the opening of ANWR to drilling.”

The young lady responded with, “We’re hearing a lot of that.  Thank you.”

Money talks… very loudly. And, believe it or not, I have been listening to you creepy, right-wing fanatics.  smile


"Here lies, in honored glory, an American soldier, known but to God.”

The times, they are a-changin’...
Bob Dylan

pparets on July 2, 2008 at 03:09 pm

It (sic) McCain going to help Republicans increase their representation in the next Congress?

No.

Anything else I can help you with 108?


Excuse me, you were saying?


realitybasedbob's signature
realitybasedbob on July 2, 2008 at 03:12 pm

Move_Zig: When I recieved the latest phone-call from the McCain campaign asking for more money - I have given a fair amount so far - I said, “No, thank you. I will not give any more cash until Senator McCain clearly affirms that border security will be his first - and for the time-being - only priority, AND until he changes his energy policy by dropping the cap-and-trade scheme and demanding the opening of ANWR to drilling.”

Good for you!


"Give the lefties a pile of money, and they’ll spend it buying votes.” - Rush Limbaugh on the “bailout”.

robert108 on July 2, 2008 at 03:15 pm

After reading that, I felt I suddenly had to sit down.

Then I realized that I was already sitting down.

Whew!


...for great justice

2eaqln4.jpg

Move_Zig on July 2, 2008 at 03:31 pm

I said, “No, thank you. I will not give any more cash until Senator McCain hooks me with the bait I have been taught to take.”


Yun Chu said, “You must strictly not express in words what is very significant. Both dragon and snake are killed in one blow.”

Sparkie Arbuckle on July 2, 2008 at 03:41 pm

We must face some unpleasant realities.

The Republicans cut their own throats by ruling as big government liberals and now are trying to run for election or reelection as moderate (RINO) Republicans. They are paying a price for their eight year of hubris.

McCain almost daily pisses off conservatives, he only runs 5-days a week, he is not offering the people a reason to vote for him except the war on terrorism; and our success in Iraq, while it should not have, has taken the war in Iraq and the war on global Islamic Terrorism off the table. He has not presented a clear vision for America’s future, he will not run against Obama because he wants to play nice; which by the way, is because he has never really operated a successful campaign organization, and his lack of fight is an act of surrender to Obama. No V.P. pick or convention to election burst of energy will make up for his lackluster campaign now. In short, McCain wants to be President, but he has no fire in his belly to actually fight for it and win and he is not making the sale to the American people!

Therefore, there will be no coattails even if by a miracle Obama loses, note I did not say if McCain wins!

By the way, neither will Obama have any coattails, the Democract Congressional blow-out that will be close to the one in the Thirties, these dies are already cast, and they were cast by a bunch of selfish Republicans.

There will be big, absolutely huge losses for the GOP in this election cycle!

We will have President/Commissar and General Chairman of the American Soviet (Council) Socialist Party (aka Democrat Party) Barak Hussien Obama!

We will have a fillibuster proof congress and they will have at least two years to launch every socialist program known to man.

Other than the above, I feel very optimistic! smile


No matter the age or state of health, for a military man it is always glorious to tilt at windmills, rescue a fair Dulcinea and be a gallant knight in armor in a glorious cause.

Neiman on July 2, 2008 at 03:52 pm

It (sic) McCain going to help Republicans increase their representation in the next Congress?

No.

Anything else I can help you with 108?

Speaking for me, you can help Robert108 by forming one intellgent, coherent sentence and making just a tiny, positive contribution to any debate.


No matter the age or state of health, for a military man it is always glorious to tilt at windmills, rescue a fair Dulcinea and be a gallant knight in armor in a glorious cause.

Neiman on July 2, 2008 at 03:54 pm

I like toast.


Excuse me, you were saying?


realitybasedbob's signature
realitybasedbob on July 2, 2008 at 04:03 pm

20hagz9.jpg


...for great justice

2eaqln4.jpg

Move_Zig on July 2, 2008 at 04:19 pm

I like toast.

So does Heywood Banks. Since you mention it, there appear to be similarities.


"we should select our leaders on principle first, electability second.”

A young man whose wisdom far exceeds his years

Spartacus on July 2, 2008 at 04:31 pm

Now, now, Zig… let’s not press your luck here....


"Here lies, in honored glory, an American soldier, known but to God.”

The times, they are a-changin’...
Bob Dylan

pparets on July 2, 2008 at 04:41 pm

I like toast.

with or without jam? The fate of the world rides on your response, so PLEASE CHOOSe CAREFULLY!
lol
nice

dragon poker on July 2, 2008 at 04:53 pm

We must face some unpleasant realities.

Another honest and respectful post. Neiman you should give lessons.

dragon poker on July 2, 2008 at 04:55 pm

Jumping into the conversation.  By the title I don’t think that McCain will have any coattails, not even for the people voting for him.

But Obama’s negative coattails is about all we can count on.


What’s going to happen to US industry when the global warming extremists like John McCain double the price of electricity?  I would think all these factories will close and set up in countries where they aren’t scared of technology.


The Whistler's signature
The Whistler on July 3, 2008 at 07:56 am

Your party is experiencing a schism. This coattails debate is more-or-less the more extreme factions of your party whining about their waning popularity. By overplaying the same emotional appeals, delivering little product, and often embellishing the details for expediency; some of the more extreme factions within the GOP have overplayed their ace. People have not only lost trust, they have become desensitized to the scare tactics employed in the political arena by y’all. The results of that could very well be more grave than appeasement, IMO. Take a lesson from McCarthy. While vigilance is important, that’s a bipartisan issue. You guys need a BIOS update like woah. You can consolidate the same old block, but that ain’t gonna get you a president.
Furthermore, the equivocation on the small government issue is a big problem. The treatment of religious factions and those who want similar morality legislated used to be a ‘state issue’. The failure to consistently continue to peg it as a state issue has caused countless to fall from the fold. View the gay marriage scene. View Terry Shaivo. If you live in Oklahoma, Texas, or Idaho, et al. don’t stress it. If you don’t, move to a state that has laws you agree with. I believe Tennessee has been enjoying a population influx due to their tax laws. Again, the treatment of these issues is important. Consolidating a voting block for McCain is a different feat than doing so for someone like Bush. You guys have McCain for a reason. If the same old players, who have landed your party in this situation, demand influence… the mid range voters may fly the coop.
Frankly, I think that McCain will win crushingly, irregardless. The whole racism is a public/private issue. What people say when interviewed for a poll is different than what people vote for. They did call YOUR NUMBER to ask, after all. I think that they will poll for Obama, McCain will win, and the sociologists will head out into the storm like meteorologists chasing a tornado.


Yun Chu said, “You must strictly not express in words what is very significant. Both dragon and snake are killed in one blow.”

Sparkie Arbuckle on July 3, 2008 at 08:20 am

Whistler: Gotta disagree here.  Unless Obama’s messianic image has deflated by November, his adoring minions will vote for anyone or anything that he suggests.  His coat-tails could be vast!

And don’t forget the old saw… “Make it emphatic… vote straight democratic.” Unless McCain can miraculously break Obama’s stranglehold, that mot will still hold true.


"Here lies, in honored glory, an American soldier, known but to God.”

The times, they are a-changin’...
Bob Dylan

pparets on July 3, 2008 at 08:58 am

Well I’m saying that the only passion on the right is going to be to beat Obama, not support the Republican Nominee.

I mean even GWB had coattails after a fashion.  Rove’s brilliant get out the vote campaign helped the GOP as a whole, even though GWB wasn’t all that popular by that time.  (Of course Kerry helped)


What’s going to happen to US industry when the global warming extremists like John McCain double the price of electricity?  I would think all these factories will close and set up in countries where they aren’t scared of technology.


The Whistler's signature
The Whistler on July 3, 2008 at 09:04 am

Agreed.  Except that Barack Obama is no John Kerry.


"Here lies, in honored glory, an American soldier, known but to God.”

The times, they are a-changin’...
Bob Dylan

pparets on July 3, 2008 at 09:09 am

Take a lesson from McCarthy.

Expose the communists in the Federal govt?  Always a good idea.  Let’s start with Obama and his buddies.


"Give the lefties a pile of money, and they’ll spend it buying votes.” - Rush Limbaugh on the “bailout”.

robert108 on July 3, 2008 at 09:09 am

Sadly, 108, in 2008, I’m not sure that many people would even care about a socialist/communist expose.

The mills of academia have done their job in the intervening 50 years.


"Here lies, in honored glory, an American soldier, known but to God.”

The times, they are a-changin’...
Bob Dylan

pparets on July 3, 2008 at 09:12 am

pp: You’re certainly right about verbal desensitization, but the actuality of Dem Marxism still doesn’t appeal to the American people.  The tidal wave of American objection to both the McCain amnesty bill and the results of Dem energy policies are manifest.  The only thing remaining is to reveal the true cause.
The Dem fealty to Marxist ideology needs to be made known to all Americans.


"Give the lefties a pile of money, and they’ll spend it buying votes.” - Rush Limbaugh on the “bailout”.

robert108 on July 3, 2008 at 09:19 am

I mean even GWB had coattails after a fashion.

What the MSM likes to cover up about Bush’s victory in 2004 is that he garnered a record number of votes for any Presidential election winner in history.  He was also a very clear Republican, not a “maverick”.


"Give the lefties a pile of money, and they’ll spend it buying votes.” - Rush Limbaugh on the “bailout”.

robert108 on July 3, 2008 at 09:41 am

Except that Barack Obama is no John Kerry.

An emptier suit than Kerry, that’s saying something. 

What the MSM likes to cover up about Bush’s victory in 2004 is that he garnered a record number of votes for any Presidential election winner in history.  He was also a very clear Republican, not a “maverick”.

And those votes turned out for other Republicans as well.  McCain’s going to depress the Republican turnout.


What’s going to happen to US industry when the global warming extremists like John McCain double the price of electricity?  I would think all these factories will close and set up in countries where they aren’t scared of technology.


The Whistler's signature
The Whistler on July 3, 2008 at 10:45 am

You guys need a BIOS update like woah. You can consolidate the same old block, but that ain’t gonna get you a president.

You cannot get elected by pissing off the voting blocks that you need to win. Playing to constiuancies that will not vote for you under any circumstances....is utter folly. McCain’s campaign strategy seems to be to piss off Conservatives as much as is humanly possible while trying to hold hands with the liberals who despise him. It’s the damnest campaigning I’ve seen in my life.

Furthermore, the equivocation on the small government issue is a big problem. The treatment of religious factions and those who want similar morality legislated used to be a ‘state issue’. The failure to consistently continue to peg it as a state issue has caused countless to fall from the fold. View the gay marriage scene. View Terry Shaivo.

Very few people actually want small government. This is why we never get politicians who deliver on this promise...because people want handouts. But if there’s anything to learn from the gay marriage issue, it’s that people are sick of liberals pushing gay marriage despite them. It’s energizing the people to fight back. The Terri Schiavo debacle pissed everyone off as they saw a political game being played with a persons life. the polls consistantly showed people disgusted with everyone involved.

Frankly, I think that McCain will win crushingly, irregardless. The whole racism is a public/private issue. What people say when interviewed for a poll is different than what people vote for.

The people who say they are voting for Obama...vote for Obama. This silliness that people are secretly racist and lying about who theyll vote for to cover it up is complete conjecture.

The polls have been consistantly wrong for one simple reason...they survey 1000 or so people in a county of 50 thousand, and wonder why the other 49 thousand votes didn’t go the same way.


For the first time in my adult life, I am ashamed of my country.

Kenny on July 3, 2008 at 12:48 pm

This silliness that people are secretly racist and lying about who theyll vote for to cover it up is complete conjecture.

The Dem Party, especially the middle class and working class Dems, is still reservoir of racism in this country.  Don’t expect many of them to vote Obama, no matter what they might tell a pollster.


"Give the lefties a pile of money, and they’ll spend it buying votes.” - Rush Limbaugh on the “bailout”.

robert108 on July 3, 2008 at 12:52 pm
Avatar for Jack

Hey bob...you still haven’t answered my challenge.

I’m sure it’s just an oversight.

So what’s it gonna be, kid?

Jack on July 3, 2008 at 01:05 pm

This silliness that people are secretly racist and lying about who theyll vote for to cover it up is complete conjecture.

No its not. I have already read about the phenomenon occurring during the primaries. Obama is polling about 6 pts higher than McCain. If we had a real election today, McCain would win by at least 2 pts. This is my opinion. I would gamble on it.


Yun Chu said, “You must strictly not express in words what is very significant. Both dragon and snake are killed in one blow.”

Sparkie Arbuckle on July 3, 2008 at 07:58 pm

No its not. I have already read about the phenomenon occurring during the primaries. Obama is polling about 6 pts higher than McCain. If we had a real election today, McCain would win by at least 2 pts. This is my opinion. I would gamble on it.

It was complete conjecture during the primaries. It was an accusation made without any evidence to actually back it up. The reporters were in full spin mode trying to explain why their polls were wrong. So the answer they came up with: BIG SCAWY RACISM.

The correct answer: 99.999% of people who said they voted for Obama did. Those who didn’t...God only knows what their reasons were for lying. Having seen exit polling take place, for every person who answers 3 or more tell the pollster to piss off. “My vote is none of your damn business” in essence. Even at exit polls, the number of people polled are a thousand or so in each state. The more likely explaination for the reason that the polls were wrong is not that the people lied...but that the other people who WEREN’T polled voted differently.

I have repeatedly pointed out the flaw with weekly polls on this basis. It is highly unlikely that public opinion is actually changing between the majority of the votes. Rather the change is simply the result of changing the survey group. The opinions haven’t changed...the people have.

We simply don’t know where the voters actually stand between McCain/Obama, and we have no reason to believe the BS theory of the racist lying voter. It doesn’t make any sense, therefore it’s not true.


For the first time in my adult life, I am ashamed of my country.

Kenny on July 3, 2008 at 09:09 pm
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