Say Anything Blog

You actually think we have a chance at a strong economy in 08?
WOW. Let me guess, you listen to Rush, right?
2008 will be the hardest year for our economy since the late 80’s.
The printing presses ran too long and now it is time to pay, too many dollars out there.

Regardless of political leanings and who the manager is, the right answer is for all of us to work together to be successful.

Please......

“We have a dollar that’s adjusting and I am for a strong dollar.....
Our dollar doesn’t buy as many barrels of oil as it used to and so therefore it’s more expensive for the American people”..... Bush 3/12/08

2008 will be the hardest year for our economy since the late 80’s.

Let’s see the doom and gloomers have been wrong every chance they get.

If we keep taxes low the economy will be fine.  Raise taxes and it goes into the toilet.

What’s going to happen to US industry when the global warming extremists like John McCain double the price of electricity?  I would think all these factories will close and set up in countries where they aren’t scared of technology.

TW
Well that takes a load off my mind.....all we have to do is keep taxes low and everything will be fine, cool.

You are so wise....... do you think it is a good time to buy real estate? Why won’t Bernanake lower interest rates? What was wrong with keeping them at 1%?
Economics is so difficult for me to understand with all them big words they use, but you make it so simple.

“We have a dollar that’s adjusting and I am for a strong dollar.....
Our dollar doesn’t buy as many barrels of oil as it used to and so therefore it’s more expensive for the American people”..... Bush 3/12/08

Was it the word economy that I used or was it toilet.  I don’t consider those ‘big words.’

The real estate market can’t grow faster than the economy forever.  It appears to have run it’s course.

Fortunately the commercial side of it isn’t overbuilt which caused us a lot of problems in the late 80’s early 90’s. 

Most people are going to stay in their houses and wait for the market to turn around, so that’s painful but from from a disaster.  A home shouldn’t be counted as a short term investment.

You probably missed the part in school where they explained that interest rates are about at the long-term average right now.  Why would we lower them.  The money supply seems to be in good hands.

Of course the Fed only sets short term rates.  The market sets the long-term rates.  Long term mortgage rates have been low because a) The lenders thought that their money was secure(pretty much true today) and b)the lenders had confidence in the Fed to keep inflation low.

So a higher short term rate help keeps the lid on inflation which keeps the long-term rates low.

What’s going to happen to US industry when the global warming extremists like John McCain double the price of electricity?  I would think all these factories will close and set up in countries where they aren’t scared of technology.

Mark D
If you want finely hashed, fundamental, freedom-oriented reasons for cutting taxes and getting the government out of our hair… read this. Why should we throw the constitution out the window over economic concerns? Especially ones that pretend to see into the future and, as a result, beg more than a few questions… ? Also the inherent epistemic chauvinism involved in centrally planned economies… can’t be explained away… at least that I have heard to date.

Fortunately the commercial side of it isn’t overbuilt which caused us a lot of problems in the late 80’s early 90’s.

Your right.....We only have six Starbuck’s on my block and I think 11 would be considered overbuilt.

Most people are going to stay in their houses and wait for the market to turn around, so that’s painful but from from a disaster

Unless you took out one of them subprime or alt-a loans, but then again that is well contained...right?

You probably missed the part in school

Scoool?

Could you purchase a 30 year treasury between 2001 and 2006?

“We have a dollar that’s adjusting and I am for a strong dollar.....
Our dollar doesn’t buy as many barrels of oil as it used to and so therefore it’s more expensive for the American people”..... Bush 3/12/08

Your right.....We only have six Starbuck’s on my block and I think 11 would be considered overbuilt.

I think any Starbucks are too many, but if that doesn’t have much to do with the discussion except for the fact that a lot of people have money in their pockets.

Unless you took out one of them subprime or alt-a loans, but then again that is well contained...right?

Of course without doom and gloom you guys wouldn’t get up in the morning.  Did you really think the housing market was going to stay up there forever.  On the other hand for reasons I’ve already explained the market isn’t going to crash, maybe fizzle for a while.

Could you purchase a 30 year treasury between 2001 and 2006?

Is there a point somewhere there?

What’s going to happen to US industry when the global warming extremists like John McCain double the price of electricity?  I would think all these factories will close and set up in countries where they aren’t scared of technology.

TW...again your wisdom blows me away. I will go to my doom and gloom blogs and relay your info.

Inverted yield curve keeps inflation down....
Housing market will only “fizzle” or poop out.

China and Yen carry trade has nothing to do with keeping inflation and mortgage rates low? The fed has kept inflation low by printing a shitload of dollars?

“We have a dollar that’s adjusting and I am for a strong dollar.....
Our dollar doesn’t buy as many barrels of oil as it used to and so therefore it’s more expensive for the American people”..... Bush 3/12/08

The fed has kept inflation low by printing a shitload of dollars?

Bass ackwards.  That really worked well for the Weimar Republic.

Too funny for words.

What’s going to happen to US industry when the global warming extremists like John McCain double the price of electricity?  I would think all these factories will close and set up in countries where they aren’t scared of technology.

Your right.....We only have six Starbuck’s on my block and I think 11 would be considered overbuilt.

Evidence of an overbuild of commercial real estate is given anecdotally based on the market penetration of Starbucks.  Good logic there.  Commercial Real Estate is more than stores and strip malls.  It is also office space.  None of the major cities are experiencing the vacancy rates that happened in the 1980’s and 1990’s that caused the last downturn. 

What we are seeing is a transfer of capital out of the previously hot and now underperforming real estate market back into the stock market (which is where short term investments belong, not flipping houses like you are some show on A&E).  US Corporate Earnings (for the S&P 500 Companies) have averaged 10% growth for the last five years.  Yet the market has stayed stagnant due to the lack of appeal versus the quick profits of the real estate run-up.  PE ratios are on the low side and this makes for a ton of opportunities.  Expect the S&P to average close to its historical growth rate of 10% based solely on earnings growth, and slightly more because investers are getting back into the stock market.

Just have a look at the S&P.  Notice a trend there?  But instead you want to talk about how many Starbucks you have on your block.

Mark D
Tell people to stop buying ‘Fivebucks’ coffee if you think they are taking over the market to quick. I support local businesses when it is more desireable… quality or price wise.

S&P was at 800 in Jan 2003.  Now it is at 1450.  I didn’t realize the economy was that bad.

I assume that with your infinite wisdom, you are shorting the market left and right to prepare for the immediate downturn and recession.  Put your money and bets where your mouth is.  Go start shorting the market and preparing for ‘08.

I have a small investment property that is still appreciating and $160k in indexed mutual funds.  The fundamentals of the market are still there and real estate is not a bad investment right now--if you are in the right markets.  My investment property is at a ski resort and was drastically undervalued when we purchased and then improved it.  I am opening two restaurants this coming year and am having a hard time even getting a space for them, the real estate vacancy rate is so low.

But I assume that you are a whiney Liberal Arts graduate or college dropout that has a negative net worth and pays no dividend or capital gains taxes.  You are able to bet on a market downturn because you have nothing to lose badmouthing the economy.  I on the other hand have my entire savings bet on a combination of the retail climate, real estate climate, and stock market growing--or at very least staying stagnant before it grows.

Since you are giving financial planning advice, how should I balance my portfolio to maximize my profits when the economy crashes because of Bush?

Residential has a long way to go before we hit bottom. Prices will free fall this summer and continue till the next.
Commercial real estate lags the residential real estate market, common sense will tell you that.
More office space for who? Citi workers?

“We have a dollar that’s adjusting and I am for a strong dollar.....
Our dollar doesn’t buy as many barrels of oil as it used to and so therefore it’s more expensive for the American people”..... Bush 3/12/08