Unemployment Numbers Reporting
Headline: Initial jobless claims fall more than projected:
First Paragraphs—
The number of Americans filing claims for jobless benefits fell more than economists predicted, a sign some employers have stopped paring staff as the recession eases.
Applications dropped by 38,000 to 550,000 in the week ended Aug. 1, figures from the Labor Department showed today in Washington, the fifth straight time claims were under 600,000 after being above that level since January. The total number of people collecting unemployment insurance rose.
Great news. So great that later on:
These numbers signal the worst is behind us, but we are not out of the woods yet, said David Semmens, an economist at Standard Chartered Bank in New York. We are not going to see strong consumer spending with numbers that look like this.
The worst is behind us… until you see the numbers further down:
The four-week moving average, a less-volatile measure than weekly initial claims, fell to 555,250 from 560,000 the prior week.
The level of continuing claims increased by 69,000 to 6.31 million in the week ended July 25…
The Labor Department will probably report tomorrow that the economy lost 328,000 jobs in July, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg, following a decline of 467,000 in June. The jobless rate probably rose to 9.6 percent from 9.5 percent, the survey showed.
I am all about optimism, but what I see here is that long term continuing recipients of unemployment rose by 69,000 in one week and the 4 week moving average feel by less than 5,000 people or under 1%. Furthermore, the unemployment rate is going to rise tomorrow and another 350,000-400,000 jobs are going to be lost during the month of July.
Each month there are 150,000 new entrants into the job market so 150,000 jobs need to be created just to keep pace. This means that when added to the job losses there are a net half a million more people without jobs this month.
Turning the corner is when we stop losing jobs each month, we see a real drop in the weekly unemployment numbers, and the unemployment rate stabilizes, something that was already supposed to have happened according to the graphs that the Dems showed us when they ramrodded through the stimulus. They “misread” how bad the economy was though, and it is Bush’s fault.
What we know is that things are going to continue to get worse for a while. What turned the corner means is that things getting worse will continue, just at a slower pace of getting shittier. Turned the corner to me means things are starting to get better, not that things are not getting worse as quickly as they were before.
