Say Anything Blog

In many ways I agree.  But this analysis only works if Putin was essentially wrong in his central premise: that the West is too weenie to do anything substantive about his attack. 

And further, that the ferocity and success of his attack will cow regional powers to bow to his intimidation and simultaneously not only keep countries from aligning themselves with the West in general and the USA in particular, it will encourage similar aggression in other parts of the world (e.g. Red China, North Korea, Venezuela, and Third World SHC’s against vulnerable neighbors)

Thus the West in general and the USA in particular MUST, absolutely MUST demonstrate to Russia that there is a price to be paid and that the price outweighs any rewards by a considerable sum.

On an heretofore undiscussed but very much related matter, this is the danger of unilateral disarmament.  These wars can crop up in a heartbeat (although a good Intel section can usually read the signs weeks, months or even years in the offing)  Any conflicts we will be presented with are very much a come-as-you-are affair. 

The number and nature of men and machines are finite, subject to rapid reduction in the form of combat losses.  Thus unilateral disarmament is a very bad idea, particularly when it comes to long-lead high-value weapon systems or combat specialties.

Just as you cannot get nine women pregnant and expect one baby to be ready in a month, many highly-specialized skill specialties take many months if not years to have good troops online.  Pilots cannot be trained in weeks like they did in the days of the crude biplanes of WWI.  Specialized forms of combat, such as SEALs, Recon, Special Forces and the like, take months, if not years of training, as do specialties such as foreign language training, electronics and so forth.

Wedded to this is the fact that for us to project power overseas, we will not have any hometeam advantage.  Everything that has to go into combat and combat support has to be transported there, subject to being intercepted and destroyed on the way.  In the case of Soviets, Red Chinese or any other overseas foe—they are already where they will be fighting.  If anyone cares to examine the Korean conflict they will see a clear illustration as to how very quickly US forces can be greatly outnumbered in any strategic or tactical situation.

I don’t know if McCain knows this.  Chances are he has a firmer grasp of when it is necessary to fight and of the constant need to be prepared to fight than the racist fool Obama. 

Bush seems to understand the necessity of making Russia pay a price for this.  I don’t think Leftards have the faintest clue.  My guess is you could rub their face in it and they would still deny clear facts, such is their contempt for the United States and self-enforced ignorance of history.

We will be in a very bad way come November, no matter which flawed candidate wins.  This situation will get worse before it gets better.

...for great justice

Whether they are defending the Soviet Union or bleating for Saddam Hussein, liberals are always against America. They are either traitors or idiots, and on the matter of America’s self-preservation, the difference is irrelevant.” —Ann Coulter, P. 16

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AMERICANS FOR TRUTH

NO PRIDE. LV

MASS RESISTANCE

THE PINK SWASTIKA

While Russia might be petro-dollar rich at the present moment, its greater economy is still in shambles

All the more reason for our drilling in areas that Frau Pelosi opposes. More oil & gas available on the world market would open options for Europe to look elsewhere besides Russia for supplies. The Soviet Union collapsed because it went bankrupt fighting the cold war, its economy is not that strong and wouldn’t take much to bankrupt it again.

At least when George Bush was reading My Pet Goat, he genuinely had no idea Manhattan was being terrorized. And it wasn’t by his own plane.

In many ways I agree.  But this analysis only works if Putin was essentially wrong in his central premise: that the West is too weenie to do anything substantive about his attack.

IMO, he’s playing a Nineteenth Century game in a Twenty-First Century world.  In general, but especially since the birth and rise to ascendancy of the US, economics is more important than military strength.  Of course, we can afford both, unlike the stagnant socialist economies.
If you remember, Reagan defeated the Soviets with the economics of the SDI program, for the most part.  We could afford it, and they couldn’t.  We just used it to bring Poland over to our side.  Missile defense.

If govt control of the economy were the way to go, the Soviet Union would be the richest, most powerful nation in the history of the world.

Thanks to Obama, America remains the only country where it is illegal to drill our own oil!

R108,

There could be a good outcome to this.  Russia, heretofore, has basked in the ambiguity of the post-Soviet era.  While they were not a clear threat to anyone, then their economy or goods might offer some advantages and the security considerations faded into the background.

Now that the Bear is showing its teeth and claws again, and assuming the US signals its intention to intervene meaningfully on the behalf of its friends, this could drive regional powers into our arms, and hopefully, speed the process of applicants to NATO membership.

My guess is that Putin was taking advantage of Georgia’s ambiguous status vis-a-vis the US and Western orbit.  We cannot intervene directly without in seeming, at least in part, as the aggressors.  Think of it as a reverse Monroe Doctrine, wherein any regional country near the Soviets (um.. Russia… ) will not be allowed to go completely within the Western orbit.

My guess is that the Brezhnev Doctrine enunciated in the aftermath of the Soviet invasion of Czechoslovakia is still valid in Putin’s mind, only they have not had the wherewithal to enforce it until now.

This expansionist mindset has deep roots in Russia.  Russia offers very few geographic barriers to foreign land invasions, save its crappy weather.  Like American Southerners, who still remember the Civil War as if it happened last year, or the Arabs, to whom the Crusaders are a fresh western insult, the Russians remember the successive Mongol invasions sweeping in from the East, and the successive invasions by the likes of Napoleon, and the Germans of WWI and WWII.  Their reaction is to seize border countries to push out the Russian frontiers in the form of a buffer.  Thus, Poland was redrawn to be about 300 miles Westward, giving up its eastern provinces to Russian and gaining the German territories East of the Oder-Neisse and Danzig.  Finland lost a substantial chunk of land, and so on and so forth.

But, if somehow, we can ensure that the Soviets do not completely overrun Georgia and the Georgians are given space to become full member of NATO and thereafter get trained and re-equipped by the USA and her allies, even if it means without the breakaway provinces, then Georgia will have secured a better position when it comes to international security than it had when it started.

The danger is that Russia will continue to advance until all of Georgia is under its control and does not leave.  Or if it leaves, it might have done so much damage, arrested all Western-oriented intelligentsia and substituted Russian-friendly puppets to alter the character of that entire country.

I still think that it may be essential that the US and her allies stand ready to use force to prevent the overrun of Georgia’s capital.  This is best done, if with the UN’s blessing.

...for great justice

Whether they are defending the Soviet Union or bleating for Saddam Hussein, liberals are always against America. They are either traitors or idiots, and on the matter of America’s self-preservation, the difference is irrelevant.” —Ann Coulter, P. 16

http://i44.tinypic.com/t89p3s.jpg[/IMG]”]

AMERICANS FOR TRUTH

NO PRIDE. LV

MASS RESISTANCE

THE PINK SWASTIKA

MZ: Good analysis.  This aggressive mood has already turned the rest of Europe in the direction of the US, despite the leftie BS about them “hating” us.  We have been defending the Euros for a long time, and when it gets down to it, they know who the good guys are.
I think developing our own oil is even more a matter of national security after Putin’s move here, no matter what the eventual outcome.  There’s just no sane reason not to be a player in the world energy market, especially when it’s so readily available to us.

If govt control of the economy were the way to go, the Soviet Union would be the richest, most powerful nation in the history of the world.

Thanks to Obama, America remains the only country where it is illegal to drill our own oil!