Say Anything Blog

Will Franklin of Willisms (and son of site regular Zsa Zsa) writes about one of his favorite topics--domestic net migration frequently at his site.  I want to take it a step further with a discussion of demographics and education in California.

First, let’s take a look at the most recent US Census data on net domestic migration:

New York, in contrast, had the largest annualized net outmigration during the period, averaging 183,000. California (99,000) and Illinois (72,000) were ranked second and third, respectively…

California experienced the largest numerical change in average annual net migration between the 1990s and the 2000–2004 period. While the state continued to experience net outmigration between 2000 and 2004, the average annual net outmigration of 99,000 was smaller than the comparable figure of 221,000 per year during the 1990s.

Net domestic migration is one part of the population picture.  This means that in the 1990’s, 2.2M more US Citizens moved from the state of California than to the state of California.  From 2000-2004, another 500,000 moved and projecting the last three years that the trend remains, that is 3M more citizens leaving California than moving there.

The numbers grow even more ominous when you factor in birth rates.  Studies on fertility rates show that for Whites, Blacks and Asians, the number of births per woman is below the replacement rate of 2.1:

As shown in Figure 2, Latinas have much higher fertility rates than other ethnic groups in California. As of 2005, the total fertility rate for Latinas in California was 2.9 children per woman, substantially higher than for Asians, African Americans, and whites, who all had fertility rates well below the replacement level of 2.1.

According the the Census, the total population of California was 29.75M in 1990.  Of that number, 7.6M were Hispanics and 20.5M were White.  Yet from July 1, 2000, to July 1, 2007, the population of California increased from 34M to 36.5M according to the US Census figures. Of the 34M in 2000, 20.1M were white and 11M were Hispanic.

As I posted earlier today on Neiman’s Homeschooling thread, that leave California in an interesting predicament.  California must test their high school students in Spanish when assessing their scholastic proficiency for No Child Left Behind:

Try this shit on for size from California’s annual No Child Left Behind Tests:

Between spring 1999 and spring 2005, districts were required to administer the SABE/2 to Spanish-speaking English learners (ELs) in grades two through eleven who were enrolled in California public schools fewer than 12 months when the tests were administered. Districts had the option of testing Spanish-speaking English learners who were enrolled in a California public school 12 months or more when the tests were administered. The tests were administered between March 15 and May 14 of each year. Students in grades two through eleven were tested in Spanish reading and language, as well as mathematics in Spanish. Students in grades two through eight were also tested in Spanish spelling. Students were required to take the SABE/2 in addition to taking the required state achievement tests in English for their grades.

Here is what the results show:

For students administered the test as second graders, the average student math score is 69%.  For those tested as twelveth graders, that score drops to 31%.

These figures are directly from California’s testing website. 

For junior in high school, only 35% score at proficient in English, 40% score proficient in Math, 28% in science, and 33% in history.

The numbers are closer to 20% in Los Angeles County and San Bernadino County.

In every sense and at every grade level, Hispanics perform far worse in Math, Reading, Writing, Social Studies, and Science than their White counterparts, even when those exams are administered in Spanish to compensate for language differences.  Whites are leaving California in droves and White women are having children at well below the replacement rate.  These problems of California schools working so hard to educate Hispanic children in most public schools are dragging down the test scores and performance of their white peers.  Pockets of affluence and educated kids still do well, as do most asians, but these are in large part because these kids are isolated due to demographics and home prices from the poorer Hispanics.

In light of the recent home schooling decision, it is becoming apparent--if you are White, affluent, and desire for your children to be educated, you need to move your ass out of California or into a neighborhood so excluse and isolated that they are shielded from the major demographic problems going on.