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Thursday, February 15, 2007

Selling Cows to Buy Milk

This is a quote from Peter Shiff’s weekly column.

On Tuesday of this week we learned that in 2006 Americans racked up a record $763.6 Billion trade deficit, and that two Australian mining firms, Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton, were each contemplating $40 billion bids for U.S. aluminum giant Alcoa.  Not only did Wall Street and the media fail to grasp the negative significance of each story, but they also failed to see the strong connection between the two.

By running huge trade deficits, Americans are literally selling cows to buy milk.  Alcoa is just the latest heifer headed for the auction block.  In other words, because we do not trade enough domestically manufactured consumer goods for those we import, we are making up the difference with our assets instead.  To the extent that foreigners are tiring of buying more Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, they are casting their eyes on industrial assets.  Last year’s trade deficit alone provided foreigners with enough dollars to buy twenty Alcoa’s.

Many Americas do not see the downside of such a transfer.  In fact, they might even see it as a benefit, as shares of Alcoa would likely rise sharply.  However, in exchange for losing one of the world’s preeminent mining companies to Australia, Americans would only be compensated by the return of their paper dollars. Future profits that would have been earned by Americans will now be earned by Australians instead.

We have seen this type of action in the past the UAE trying to buy some east coast ports and the Chinese trying to buy an oil company.  If the government steps in and stops this sale from going through like the others foreign governments will no longer be as willing to hold our dollars let alone extend the 2 billion dollars that we require daily to keep our economy going.

Comments

A suggestion we take a page out of Putin’s book eh?


rasberry

Sparkie Arbuckle on February 15, 2007 at 05:06 pm

By running huge trade deficits, Americans are literally selling cows to buy milk.

This is absolutely false; the so-called “trade deficit"(not a deficit at all, since there is no guaranteed amount of trade income we “should” have), only means that we are wealthy enough to buy a lot of stuff from other countries, and they are not wealthy enough to buy much from us.  The only people who are in danger from this are the trade unions, who want to keep business here, even though their activities have made business unprofitable in many cases.  This BS started mainly during the Carter administration.


If life doesn’t begin at conception, why do they call it birth control?

robert108 on February 15, 2007 at 07:25 pm

I have a huge trade deficit with my grocer.


What’s going to happen to US industry when the global warming extremists like John McCain double the price of electricity?  I would think all these factories will close and set up in countries where they aren’t scared of technology.


The Whistler's signature
The Whistler on February 15, 2007 at 07:38 pm

I have a huge trade deficit with my grocer.

Sure, I do too and with many others, my grocer and yours can use dollars to buy stuff, pay their mortgage etc. On the flip side I run huge trade surpluses with some customers, and I use those dollars to buy stuff etc....

Some and a growing number of Americans run such huge trade surpluses with too many places that their income will just cover the interest payments and rent and then no one will extend them credit to keep the charade going.


"All the perplexities, confusion and distress in America arise not from defects in their Constitution or Confederation, nor from want of honor or virtue, so much as downright ignorance of the nature of coin, credit and circulation.”
- John Adams

Troy_Pineri on February 16, 2007 at 06:53 am

We should just go back to the economic conditions of the 30’s when we ran huge trade surpluses.

That must mean we’d be rich.


What’s going to happen to US industry when the global warming extremists like John McCain double the price of electricity?  I would think all these factories will close and set up in countries where they aren’t scared of technology.


The Whistler's signature
The Whistler on February 16, 2007 at 06:55 am

We should just go back to the economic conditions of the 30’s when we ran huge trade surpluses.

That event was caused by the Federal Reserve too as is the current “orchestrating” that will blow up.  Thanks for pointing it out.


"All the perplexities, confusion and distress in America arise not from defects in their Constitution or Confederation, nor from want of honor or virtue, so much as downright ignorance of the nature of coin, credit and circulation.”
- John Adams

Troy_Pineri on February 16, 2007 at 07:00 am

I agree about the cause of the Great Depression, however I’m merely pointing out that your analysis is exactly Bass Ackwards. 

When we are profitable we can afford to import goods.  When we are not we export goods.

The trade deficit is evidence of our wealth.


What’s going to happen to US industry when the global warming extremists like John McCain double the price of electricity?  I would think all these factories will close and set up in countries where they aren’t scared of technology.


The Whistler's signature
The Whistler on February 16, 2007 at 07:10 am

The trade deficit is evidence of our wealth.

The trade deficit is evidence that we have given our wealth away.


"All the perplexities, confusion and distress in America arise not from defects in their Constitution or Confederation, nor from want of honor or virtue, so much as downright ignorance of the nature of coin, credit and circulation.”
- John Adams

Troy_Pineri on February 16, 2007 at 07:15 am
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Only to someone with a child’s grasp of economics.


When the people fear their government, there is tyranny; when the government fears the people, there is liberty.

-- Thomas Jefferson

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Rob on February 16, 2007 at 07:20 am

Only to someone with a child’s grasp of economics.

Oh! how So?


"All the perplexities, confusion and distress in America arise not from defects in their Constitution or Confederation, nor from want of honor or virtue, so much as downright ignorance of the nature of coin, credit and circulation.”
- John Adams

Troy_Pineri on February 16, 2007 at 07:28 am

The trade deficit is evidence of our wealth.

Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha.

Ha ha ha ha. Sniffle. Ha ha ha.


rasberry

Sparkie Arbuckle on February 16, 2007 at 07:35 am

The so-called “trade deficit” is not a deficit at all, but merely the resultant of two causally unrelated numbers. The Dems have manufactured this little piece of scareology to appease their union voter base, and continually use it as a political weapon to attack the prosperity of Republican administrations and to weaken our economy by using a strawman argument against free trade policies that enrich us.  The childish part is in thinking that our imports and exports are in any way causally related.  They aren’t.


If life doesn’t begin at conception, why do they call it birth control?

robert108 on February 16, 2007 at 07:40 am
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Oh! how So?

Because there doesn’t need to be a balance between imports and exports, and our economy doesn’t need to be based on manufacturing like it was in the past.

What America excels at is innovation.  Development.  We create new technologies (drugs, electronics, etc.) used all over the world.

Other countries excel at manufacturing.  In a lot of instances they produce goods cheaper and at a better quality than our factories do (thanks mostly to unions).  So we import their goods and export our innovation and technology.

There doesn’t need to be a balance because not all economies are the same.  The trade deficit, as robert108 points out, is just a SCARY NUMBER! the media and left like to trot out.  You should think about it a little more and not swallow everything you hear on television.


When the people fear their government, there is tyranny; when the government fears the people, there is liberty.

-- Thomas Jefferson

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Rob on February 16, 2007 at 07:56 am

I suppose Troy’s all anxious to cut our trade deficit by about 40 Billion dollars a year by developing our oil deposits in the arctic wastelands.

How come the people so unhappy with the trade deficit are the same ones putting restrictions on US businesses so that those jobs go overseas?

Another imponderable is why the leftist want the US workers to be confined in the same stinky old factory doing the same stinky old work for their entire lives.

I mean sure that was Marx’s vision of the world…


What’s going to happen to US industry when the global warming extremists like John McCain double the price of electricity?  I would think all these factories will close and set up in countries where they aren’t scared of technology.


The Whistler's signature
The Whistler on February 16, 2007 at 08:02 am

What America excels at is innovation.

Rob innovation is going overseas too, all that Americans are good at doing is consuming.


"All the perplexities, confusion and distress in America arise not from defects in their Constitution or Confederation, nor from want of honor or virtue, so much as downright ignorance of the nature of coin, credit and circulation.”
- John Adams

Troy_Pineri on February 16, 2007 at 08:20 am
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all that Americans are good at doing is consuming.

Well gee whiz, Troy, how do you think we can afford to do all that consuming?  How do you think we can afford to buy all those imported good if all our jobs are going over seas?

Get a clue.


When the people fear their government, there is tyranny; when the government fears the people, there is liberty.

-- Thomas Jefferson

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Rob on February 16, 2007 at 08:27 am

Troy’s speaking for his own liberal self.

Liberals are a drain to society.


What’s going to happen to US industry when the global warming extremists like John McCain double the price of electricity?  I would think all these factories will close and set up in countries where they aren’t scared of technology.


The Whistler's signature
The Whistler on February 16, 2007 at 08:30 am

...all that Americans are good at doing is consuming.

Troy,

An interesting critique of contemporary America, you’ve offered.

Now, how many glasses are there in your Avatar?


“Poverty of goods is easily cured; poverty of the mind is irreparable.”

Bat One on February 16, 2007 at 08:39 am

Now, how many glasses are there in your Avatar?

LOL! That put a smile on my face!


"All the perplexities, confusion and distress in America arise not from defects in their Constitution or Confederation, nor from want of honor or virtue, so much as downright ignorance of the nature of coin, credit and circulation.”
- John Adams

Troy_Pineri on February 16, 2007 at 08:42 am

how do you think we can afford to do all that consuming?

In the past 30 or so years we (the US) has gone from the worlds largest creditor to the worlds largest debtor. Thats how. In essence is America is the spoiled rich kid who has squandered the mother of all inheritances.


"All the perplexities, confusion and distress in America arise not from defects in their Constitution or Confederation, nor from want of honor or virtue, so much as downright ignorance of the nature of coin, credit and circulation.”
- John Adams

Troy_Pineri on February 16, 2007 at 08:45 am
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Certainly America has not acted, generally, in a fiscally responsible manner in the last 30 years, but that’s not a problem created by the trade deficit.  That’s a problem brought on by entitlement programs which require us to spend more and more every single year.

Now, since you’re oh-so-worried about our national debt I’m sure you’ll join me in calling for no new entitlements like socialized medicine?  And a reduction in expenditures on programs like Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security?

Because you are concerned about the debt, right?


When the people fear their government, there is tyranny; when the government fears the people, there is liberty.

-- Thomas Jefferson

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Rob on February 16, 2007 at 08:50 am

The childish part is in thinking that our imports and exports are in any way causally related.  They aren’t.

Of course they are.  When China sells goods in America they recieve American dollars for their goods. What can they do with those American dollars?  In the past, they could buy American made goods, or trade them for gold.  In todays system the only thing American dollars are good for is Oil, and American Assets.  When foreign nations tire of buying bonds and T-bills, what will they buy with those dollars.  American assets like Alcoa above or oil companies, or North Dakota coal deposits etc.


"All the perplexities, confusion and distress in America arise not from defects in their Constitution or Confederation, nor from want of honor or virtue, so much as downright ignorance of the nature of coin, credit and circulation.”
- John Adams

Troy_Pineri on February 16, 2007 at 08:50 am
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Troy, ever was responsible for teaching you economics should be bent over someone’s lap and spanked.  I’m serious.


When the people fear their government, there is tyranny; when the government fears the people, there is liberty.

-- Thomas Jefferson

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Rob on February 16, 2007 at 08:54 am
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If you’re so worried about how much money Americans spend (and I notice that you don’t seem to differentiate between government spending and private spending, typical socialist) then why would you insist that they pay more for American-made products when cheaper products are available?

Have you no sympathy for the working poor?


When the people fear their government, there is tyranny; when the government fears the people, there is liberty.

-- Thomas Jefferson

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Rob on February 16, 2007 at 08:57 am

One factor that’s beyond Troy is the amount of wealth being produced in this country every year.

Suppose the wealth of North Dakota was going up 10% every year.  Would it be a problem if people in Minnesota were investing enough to fund half of that growth? 

That’s not a great explanation of what’s going on here, but I think it does illustrate the point.


What’s going to happen to US industry when the global warming extremists like John McCain double the price of electricity?  I would think all these factories will close and set up in countries where they aren’t scared of technology.


The Whistler's signature
The Whistler on February 16, 2007 at 09:03 am

Now, since you’re oh-so-worried about our national debt I’m sure you’ll join me in calling for no new entitlements like socialized medicine?  And a reduction in expenditures on programs like Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security?

You’re right.  Social Security is a flawed program.  When it was created the average man/woman lived to 55 so the benefits started 10 years after the average life expectancy.  Today SS should start when someone reaches 80.

The second of many flaws with the program is SS is based on the population continually going up. I don’t support the privatization of the program, but benefits should be based on what one person actually produces in their lifetime, and the money should not be put in a general fund, and the government/federal reserve need to be held more accountable for accurated reporting on CPI.  Government planned inflation is destroying this program.

Medicare/Medicaid is a big mess, something that should never have been created, I don’t have the time to comment here.


"All the perplexities, confusion and distress in America arise not from defects in their Constitution or Confederation, nor from want of honor or virtue, so much as downright ignorance of the nature of coin, credit and circulation.”
- John Adams

Troy_Pineri on February 16, 2007 at 09:06 am

Suppose the wealth of North Dakota was going up 10% every year.  Would it be a problem if people in Minnesota were investing enough to fund half of that growth? 

I’ll give you that.  That is not beyond me.  But we are not using what we import from China to build infrastructure or create wealth.  We are using it to buy TV’s, cell phones, microwaves etc.


"All the perplexities, confusion and distress in America arise not from defects in their Constitution or Confederation, nor from want of honor or virtue, so much as downright ignorance of the nature of coin, credit and circulation.”
- John Adams

Troy_Pineri on February 16, 2007 at 09:08 am

Sorry typing too fast,

We are NOT using imports from Chins to build…

Gotta go to work…


"All the perplexities, confusion and distress in America arise not from defects in their Constitution or Confederation, nor from want of honor or virtue, so much as downright ignorance of the nature of coin, credit and circulation.”
- John Adams

Troy_Pineri on February 16, 2007 at 09:10 am

Troy:  It’s not actually up to you to decide what people get to spend their money on.


What’s going to happen to US industry when the global warming extremists like John McCain double the price of electricity?  I would think all these factories will close and set up in countries where they aren’t scared of technology.


The Whistler's signature
The Whistler on February 16, 2007 at 09:14 am

Troy:  It’s not actually up to you to decide what people get to spend their money on.

Your putting words in my mouth…


"All the perplexities, confusion and distress in America arise not from defects in their Constitution or Confederation, nor from want of honor or virtue, so much as downright ignorance of the nature of coin, credit and circulation.”
- John Adams

Troy_Pineri on February 16, 2007 at 01:33 pm
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Today SS should start when someone reaches 80.

So you’re not the least bit concerned that the SS program is so woefully inefficient that we must push the age at which people start getting the money back to the point where most people are dead just so that the program can survive?

It doesn’t bother you that most of us won’t get back from SS a fraction of what we paid in?

*shakes head in disgust*

But we are not using what we import from China to build infrastructure or create wealth.  We are using it to buy TV’s, cell phones, microwaves etc.

And saving billions of dollars every year on those items by buying them from people who can produce them more cheaply and more efficiently than we can.

Why should we pay more for products just because of your silly economic notions?

Also, why can’t you understand that each nation’s economy is different?  America’s economy has changed, from a manufacturing and agrarian-based one to one more focused on research, development and innovation.  Meanwhile China specializes more in factories that produce consumer goods.

It’s called free trade, and it’s a good thing Troy.  It’s one big reason why our economy is so vibrant and resilient right now.


When the people fear their government, there is tyranny; when the government fears the people, there is liberty.

-- Thomas Jefferson

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Rob on February 16, 2007 at 01:59 pm
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By the way, Troy, US exports are at their highest level ever:

Exports comprised 11.1 percent of U.S. GDP in 2006, the highest ever in dollar terms. It was 5.2 percent 50 years ago and 9.6 in 2002.


When the people fear their government, there is tyranny; when the government fears the people, there is liberty.

-- Thomas Jefferson

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Rob on February 16, 2007 at 02:22 pm

Troy_Pineri said, Today SS should start when someone reaches 80.

The men in my big family don’t live that long.

Why do you want to steal from us? What have we done to you?

likwidshoe on February 16, 2007 at 03:54 pm

It doesn’t bother you that most of us won’t get back from SS a fraction of what we paid in?

It does bother me, but I realized that I more than likely will not get a dime back. 

So you’re not the least bit concerned that the SS program is so woefully inefficient that we must push the age at which people start getting the money back to the point where most people are dead just so that the program can survive?

Thats how the program was initially setup

It’s one big reason why our economy is so vibrant and resilient right now.

More like the Federal Reserve know how to put the printing presses in overdrive.


"All the perplexities, confusion and distress in America arise not from defects in their Constitution or Confederation, nor from want of honor or virtue, so much as downright ignorance of the nature of coin, credit and circulation.”
- John Adams

Troy_Pineri on February 16, 2007 at 03:58 pm

Lik -

I hear you, men in my family don’t live that long either.


"All the perplexities, confusion and distress in America arise not from defects in their Constitution or Confederation, nor from want of honor or virtue, so much as downright ignorance of the nature of coin, credit and circulation.”
- John Adams

Troy_Pineri on February 16, 2007 at 04:01 pm

But we are not using what we import from China to build infrastructure or create wealth.

Ever hear of Home Depot? That’s just one.  Much infrastructure and many jobs. You are economically ignorant, Troy.  Put aside those Marxist tracts and read some Milt Friedman, or start your own business; it will do you a world of good.  The stuff you’re reading is making you stupid.


If life doesn’t begin at conception, why do they call it birth control?

robert108 on February 16, 2007 at 09:12 pm

start your own business; it will do you a world of good.

I own seven! How about you?


"All the perplexities, confusion and distress in America arise not from defects in their Constitution or Confederation, nor from want of honor or virtue, so much as downright ignorance of the nature of coin, credit and circulation.”
- John Adams

Troy_Pineri on February 17, 2007 at 08:18 am
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It does bother me, but I realized that I more than likely will not get a dime back. . . .

Thats how the program was initially setup

And you’re ok with it?

My goodness...I don’t even know how to respond to someone who doesn’t even care that the government is wasting his money.

I own seven! How about you?

I don’t mean to call you a liar, but seven businesses?

I’m skeptical.  Especially given your economic naivete.


When the people fear their government, there is tyranny; when the government fears the people, there is liberty.

-- Thomas Jefferson

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Rob on February 17, 2007 at 08:37 am

don’t even know how to respond to someone who doesn’t even care that the government is wasting his money.

I do care!  I am also realistic to the situation. I will have to pay into SS, and will probably never collect. 

Especially given your economic naivete.

Whatever.  You’re being conned by the government/Federal Reserve to hold onto your dollar denominated assets while the rich are getting out of theirs.  It’s much that dot.com bubble burst.


"All the perplexities, confusion and distress in America arise not from defects in their Constitution or Confederation, nor from want of honor or virtue, so much as downright ignorance of the nature of coin, credit and circulation.”
- John Adams

Troy_Pineri on February 17, 2007 at 09:18 am

Troy: If the US converted to the Euro, we would then determine its value.  Duh.


If life doesn’t begin at conception, why do they call it birth control?

robert108 on February 17, 2007 at 09:36 am

Troy: If the US converted to the Euro, we would then determine its value.  Duh.

There all pieces of paper! Duh!


"All the perplexities, confusion and distress in America arise not from defects in their Constitution or Confederation, nor from want of honor or virtue, so much as downright ignorance of the nature of coin, credit and circulation.”
- John Adams

Troy_Pineri on February 17, 2007 at 09:50 am

There all pieces of paper! Duh!

You can’t possibly be a business owner.  More like student drinker, I think.


If life doesn’t begin at conception, why do they call it birth control?

robert108 on February 17, 2007 at 10:06 am
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You’re being conned by the government/Federal Reserve to hold onto your dollar denominated assets while the rich are getting out of theirs.

Says the guy who won’t lift a finger to so something about the colossal waste that is Social Security.  You just shrug your shoulders and say “oh well” to those thousands of dollars you pay in every year.

I know I’m paying a few thousand dollars in a year, and it drives me nuts.

By the way, which businesses do you own?


When the people fear their government, there is tyranny; when the government fears the people, there is liberty.

-- Thomas Jefferson

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Rob on February 17, 2007 at 10:20 am
Avatar for Mark D

Troy is the only one here who makes sense

Mark D on February 17, 2007 at 04:27 pm

Troy is the only one here who makes sense

Backing Ponzi Schemes makes sense?

Don’t ever walk into a casino Mark D. You’ve got “sucker” written all over you.

likwidshoe on February 17, 2007 at 04:30 pm
Avatar for Mark D

More and more countries are moving away from the almighty dollar. Deficits DO matter and anyone who thinks that we are not headed for a major recession watches toooooo much MSM.
Our economy has been growing due to housing , every other person is either (or was)a realestate agent, mortgage broker, construction worker, Home Depot employee and so on. What will happen this spring when they realize the housing isn’t coming back like they have been told?
Who will fill the malls?
It’s not doom and gloom, it’s reality.

Mark D on February 17, 2007 at 04:45 pm
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Budget deficits do matter, but trade deficits don’t.


When the people fear their government, there is tyranny; when the government fears the people, there is liberty.

-- Thomas Jefferson

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Rob on February 17, 2007 at 05:04 pm
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Budget deficits do matter, but trade deficits don’t.

I disagree.
The pressure on the US dollar is growing rapidly, the holders are getting nervous, and with the slowing of the economy it will only escalate. We will find it harder and harder to park our trade deficit dollars unless we increase the incentive to hold them.....interest rates. Massive monetary expansion = inflation, no way around it.

Mark D on February 17, 2007 at 05:27 pm
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