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Monday, May 05, 2008

Prophets Of Recession Hedging Their Bets

Thomas Lifson

Anatole Kaletsky of the Times of London heralds a recession in predictions of a recession in the US economy.

[Warren] Buffett, having speculated against the dollar for years and declared that credit derivatives are financial weapons of mass destruction, has finally begun to find attractive opportunities to invest his money and told his shareholders last week that the worst of the credit crisis was probably over. Mr Soros, in his forthcoming book, The New Paradigm for Financial Markets, states unequivocally: “We are in the midst of a financial crisis the likes of which has not been seen since the Great Depression.” But after making $3 billion for Quantum Endowment Fund by anticipating last year’s bear markets, he is now hedging his bets, as is only to be expected from the world’s most successful hedge fund manager. “I may well be proven wrong,” he told The New York Times last week, adding that he might yet again turn out to be “the boy who cried wolf”.

[...]

Indeed, the Bank’s calculations suggest that present pricing of mortgage-related bonds in financial markets has probably overstated the future losses on US sub-prime lending by about double.

It is true we are not out of the woods yet, but with stimulus checks arriving, interest rate cuts taking effect, the run on the dollar abated, and oil prices weakening, there are reasons for optimism. Of course the MSM will continue to peddle doom and gloom, even as canny liberal investors like Buffet and Soros prepare to profit from the upturn.

This is not news to those who know about economics, but it’s good to hear it in the MSM.
BTW, why aren’t the lefties hating on Soros, who is an evil hedge fund manager?  Double standard?

Comments

Hyman Roth always made money for his partners.

why aren’t the lefties hating on Soros, who is an evil hedge fund manager?

Bear Sterns , not so much.

Here, protected, free to
make our profits without the
Justice Department, the FBI;…
in partnership with a
friendly government

WOOF on May 5, 2008 at 11:47 am

why aren’t the lefties hating on Soros, who is an evil hedge fund manager?

Bear Sterns , not so much.

Non-responsive, as usual.
Are you trying to make some sort of point, Woof?  You just throw out names that I guess are stock leftie buzzwords, but they have no actual meaning.
We are not in a recession, and now even the leftie liars are backing off.  Delicious!


If you don’t know by now, don’t mess with it.

robert108 on May 5, 2008 at 12:07 pm

he is now hedging his bets, as is only to be expected from the world’s most successful hedge fund manager. “I may well be proven wrong,” he told The New York Times last week, adding that he might yet again turn out to be “the boy who cried wolf”.

R108 markets don’t move in straight lines, duh!  I am a big gold bull but have been shorting it since it hit 1034; and even with in that trend I went long once.  These guys are probably operating on more than one time frame.  The economice outlook will look rosy until the new year.  It’s an election year.  Watch out for 2009! 

As for Buffet

Buffett..  has finally begun to find attractive opportunities to invest his money

I am not sure what specifically this article is referencing but his last two public deals is Wrigley and BNSF Stock. 

Buffet helped take Wrigley; the worlds largets gum manufacturer with loads of potential in emerging markets; into private hands; and took a stake in another private company; which also has great potential in foreign markets.  That purchase signifies that Warren thinks the American Economy is going to tank and he is looking for profits overseas.  His other international purchase of recent was a private company in Israel.

His purchase in BNSF shows that he thinks oil is going higher and in the long run shipping on the rails will be cheaper than trucking with gas.

Art.Downs on May 5, 2008 at 03:22 pm
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