Poll Bias
Sit in the Corner:
According to Winston’s analysis, there is a material discrepancy between the party identification listed by people in exit polls (people who actually voted) between 1992 and 2004, and those used over the last few weeks.
In short, between 1992 and 2004, only once did one party enjoy an advantage as large as 4 points over the other in party ID. But in recent polling samples used by eight different polling organizations (USA Today/Gallup, CBS/NYTimes, ABC/Washington Post, CNN/Opinion Research, Newsweek, AP/Ipsos, Pew, and Time), the Democratic advantage in the sample surveyed was never less than 5 points. All these organizations conducted surveys in early October. According to Winston, the Democrats held the following party ID advantages in these early-October surveys:
* USAToday/Gallup: 9 points.
* CBS/NYT: 5 points
* ABC/WP: 8 points
* CNN: did not provide sample party ID details.
* Newsweek: 11 points.
* AP/Ipsos: 8 points.
* Pew: 7 points.
* Time: 8 points.
So maybe the Republicans will lose. I don’t think so but my record on predictions is pretty poor. Given the history of midterm elections it wouldn’t be surprising for the majority party to lose.
On the other hand I have learned not to trust the polls. When the Republicans took the House by storm in 1994 the media didn’t give them much chance. Another example is the “close” elections that Ronald Reagan had to win the Presidency.
It seems pretty clear right now that the media polls have stacked the deck against Republicans. I think they’re trying to depress GOP turnout.
On the other hand, not everyone is pessimistic.
While some predict Republicans could lose up to 25 seats in the House, Rove predicts the GOP will lose eight to 10—fewer than the 15 seats the Democrats need to gain control, the Washington Post said Sunday.
Rove predicted Democrats wouldn’t be able to capture the six seats needed to retake the Senate, either, the Post said.
