New Hampshire Primary: Post-Mortem
Republicans
John McCain’s “surge” in New Hampshire will likely be short lived unless he can run within 3 points of Mitt Romney in Michigan. Since Romney’s father George was governor of Michigan, failing to decisively win Michigan would probably represent a death blow to any momentum being created going into his February 5th efforts.
Mike Huckabee, with his 3rd place - beating Rudy Giuliani in his back yard - showed that his strength goes beyond the bible belt. Ron Paul’s tie with Giuliani in independent rich New Hampshire would have to be viewed as a slight disappointment given his stronger than expected showing in Iowa last week.
Michigan will also be big for Fred Thompson whose future in South Carolina may be predicted by McCain’s performance in Michigan. If McCain struggles in Michigan and Romney walks away with the state, the likelihood that McCain will bow out and endorse Thompson before February 5th increases. A strong McCain performance in Michigan will mean that Thompson will have to wiin South Carolina on his own and will require a dismal McCain performance in S.C. to build any momentum at all.
Of course, being the Fusion Candidate allows Fred Thompson to hang back and aim for delegates rather than states and hope for a convention decision.
Democrats
Only time will tell if anything comes out of the mid-day reports of ballot shortages. Speculation of tampering and fraud on the Democrats side started almost as soon as the polls opened.
Hillary Clinton’s surprise attack in New Hampshire will propel her into Nevada. South Carolina is now ‘do or die’ for John Edwards - anything less than a win in S.C. and he might as well go sit on the chair that says V.P. Candidate on the back.
The notion that Barrack Obama is mortally wounded due to New Hampshire is farcical. His showing in the south and the industrial mid-west will be far more important than New Hampshire.
Summary
Overall, New Hampshire really did not change anything, the media will increase it’s fixation on Hillary’s emotional outbursts. Obama is still the man to beat on the Democrats’s side, and Huckabee looks to be more than just a passing fad.
