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Monday, November 19, 2007

Mann Hockey Stick Contradicted by New Study

Hot off the presses, there is a new study that has just been released by Craig Loehle, “A 2000-year global temperature reconstruction based on non-treering proxies. ” First here’s the punch line:

What this says basically is that, in keeping with medieval records suggesting a warm Europe for that period, that global temperature was warmer during that period than it is currently.

Obviously that’s a problem for believers in anthropogenic global warming.

I’ll note that this is in Energy & Environment, and there is some skepticism about the degree of true peer review for this journal.  Nonetheless, the principle holds that “if a thing is true, it is true regardless of who said it”, it’s reasonable to treat this research skeptically, but to also start with the assumption of good faith on the part of Loehle. 

I say that because we all know that he will be smeared by the left-wing for daring to question their views; and if not the journal he published his report in, then instead expect any cooperate funding his organization receives to be scruitinized.  That does always seem to be a substitute for reason on their side.

Comments

Clearly Mr. Carrick here is a neo-con hack that’s paid off by Big Oil.

I feel like I’ve omitted a talking point.

A little help…


Fileitunder.com

Hoodlumman on November 19, 2007 at 01:46 pm
Avatar for FlyOnTheWall

Big tobacco Jews? 

Blackwater in the illegal war ... CIA operatives ...

losing steam here.

FlyOnTheWall on November 19, 2007 at 02:18 pm

No doubt.  We need some sort of Cliffs Notes for this crap…


Fileitunder.com

Hoodlumman on November 19, 2007 at 02:20 pm
Avatar for FlyOnTheWall

christian fundamentalist Taliban rethuglican bushitler lying lobotomized bots!

A little visit to Democratic Underground starts the love flowing.

FlyOnTheWall on November 19, 2007 at 02:37 pm
Avatar for physics geek

So instead of a hockey stick, we’ve now got the Big W. Maybe I should be looking under it for something precious, like a copy of An Inconvenient Truth that someone has set fire to. After all, it’s getting cold outside.

physics geek on November 19, 2007 at 02:44 pm

we’ve now got the Big W.

Short for Whistler.


What’s going to happen to US industry when the global warming extremists like John McCain double the price of electricity?  I would think all these factories will close and set up in countries where they aren’t scared of technology.


The Whistler's signature
The Whistler on November 19, 2007 at 02:49 pm

Heh. Great post, Carrick.

Not that these incovenient facts will sway the gorebots from their fervant belief in Gore’s Incovenient Truth. There are fingers in ears and lalalalala I can’t hear you about this right now.

Facts are such tiresome things, aren’t they?


Election ‘08 - We Are So Screwed

Pilgrim on November 19, 2007 at 03:51 pm

By the way, chop off all but the last 500 years or so off that chart.  That’s what the alarmists keep doing. 

When you look at it that way it sure does make it look significant.

But when you look at the trend for a few thousand years you’ll see that we aren’t seeing anything at all unusual.


What’s going to happen to US industry when the global warming extremists like John McCain double the price of electricity?  I would think all these factories will close and set up in countries where they aren’t scared of technology.


The Whistler's signature
The Whistler on November 19, 2007 at 04:17 pm

The other thing is that even this graph has been set up to really highligh small differences.  From the highest to the lowest part of the graph isn’t really much more than one degree.

Around here the temperature changes that much ever 5 minutes.


What’s going to happen to US industry when the global warming extremists like John McCain double the price of electricity?  I would think all these factories will close and set up in countries where they aren’t scared of technology.


The Whistler's signature
The Whistler on November 19, 2007 at 04:19 pm

I blame Bush for the good weather.

Good research, Carrick.


If life doesn’t begin at conception, why do they call it birth control?

robert108 on November 19, 2007 at 04:30 pm

Whistler:

By the way, chop off all but the last 500 years or so off that chart.  That’s what the alarmists keep doing.

That or they end up with a crazy horizontal line like Mann’s hockey stick.  Proof that the Earth really is static and unchanging, and the Greeks were right.  wink

The other thing is that even this graph has been set up to really highligh small differences.  From the highest to the lowest part of the graph isn’t really much more than one degree.

That’s an excellent point.  Getting it accurate to 1°C across 2000 years using these proxy methods is pretty challenging.  Really the span of predictions among the different reconstructions could be used to estimate just how uncertain the reconstructions really are.

Carrick on November 19, 2007 at 05:08 pm

Carrick! Wait. Are you trying to tell us that during the long, warm period it was warmer? Or that during the long, warm period it was warmer? I’m is confused! The Goreacle said it has never been warmer than it is now and is going to be in 23,,no,,34,,,,no,,,18, ah hell, some number of years some time in the not to distant far future.

The Goreacle wouldn’t lie to us! And Ted Danson(noted climatologowissy dowacky) said in 1988 the oceans were going to die and all life be wiped out in 10 years, so we got what, like 5-6 years left before we die. Hell with it! Lets party.


Una Salus Victus Nullam Sperare Salutem

2Hotel9 on November 19, 2007 at 07:58 pm
Avatar for dontubeleevit

An interesting article on Mann and his data..

http://www.ldsmag.com/ideas/070313goodprint.html

dontubeleevit on November 20, 2007 at 07:38 am
Avatar for jeff

Clearly this data has been created by the military industrial complex with cooperation from Big Oil.
Global Warming is a fact, not a theory.  I know because Al Gore tells me so.
He says there is no debate.  He told me that polar bears are dying, ice caps are melting, we are all going to drown, and the only thing we can do to fix it is feed him jelly donuts, stop flying, discontinue use of refrigerators and air conditioning, exterminate farting cows, go vegan, stop driving, stop going to the grocery store, lose weight, and buy carbon credits so he can continue to fuel his private jets, SUV entourages, and heat and cool his enormous home.  Oh, I almost forgot - he also wants me to live in a smaller house.
You shills are all bought and paid for by big oil and have been brainwashed by Bush and Cheney.
Without a scientific consensus, there is no scientific truth.  The greenies have tested and re-tested their data.  They don’t want to show it to you because you would only lie about how the computer models are flawed, having been calibrated to produce the results they wanted.  That’s just not going to fly!
Listen, if smart people like Leonardo DiCaprio believe in global warming, who the hell are you to question it?
That’s just unpatriotic!

jeff on November 20, 2007 at 09:19 am
Avatar for Dennis W. Welch

Human derived Global Warming is a scam.  Al Gore was doomed to go down in history as that poor slob that lost the presidency because he couldn’t even carry his home state’s voters.  He needs some other legacy to be remembered by.  His phony facts and pseudo-science cannot be supported by scientific evidence. Whenever some of his crap is refuted, they (the “warmers” ) attack the messenger. The earth is heating up slightly in a multi-thousand year cycle that has repeated itself since the mesozoic era.  We didn’t cause it and we can’t stop it.  If Gore and the Gorites want to believe man is causing climate change, then to what do they attribute the current warming trend seen on planet Mars- little tiny Martians all driving around in miniature Hummers?

Dennis W. Welch on November 20, 2007 at 09:49 am
Avatar for jeff

we all know that Mars is heating because of mmgw (martian made global warming).
Martians run their heating and a/c all the time and drive gas guzzling SUV’s everywhere, further feeding the interplanetary big oil companies.  The worst part of it all is that the biggest oil producers in the galaxy are some of the worst terrorists in the universe.  The Saturnians are at the center of the axis of evil.  George Bush knows all about this and is part of the problem, not the solution, having supported Saturns regime change, installing an oppressive dictator who pretended to be interested in democracy. 
We need to open a universal dialogue with the Saturnians, accept them as they are without judging their behaviors, and keep Bush from declaring war on Saturn, which is inevitable as he has been setting this up for years.
Bush lied, Saturnians died.

jeff on November 20, 2007 at 10:05 am
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Like, dude… everyone knows that mars wasn’t heating until the corporations sent a rover there ... its been spewing man-made CO2 ever since.  It only takes one.

Cody on November 20, 2007 at 10:11 am
Avatar for Lawrence Hughes

The Martian Global Warming is obviously caused by the (MAN MADE) rovers we sent there. Oh wait - those are solar powered.... NEVERMIND!

Lawrence Hughes on November 20, 2007 at 10:19 am
Avatar for Half Elf

Without a scientific consensus, there is no scientific truth.

Facts are not dependent upon consensus.
If we only needed a consensus the planet would still be flat, and located in the center of the universe. Copernicus was excommunicated from the catholic church for the heresy of suggesting that we were not the absolute center of it all.
I am really curious why the temperature on Mars is increasing at the same rate as Terran temperature, and my SUV has never been there.

Half Elf on November 20, 2007 at 01:32 pm

In related stories, South America experienced their coldest winter in around 100 years.  Even Buenos Aires had snow.  Also, the UK recently had one of their earliest snowfalls.  Yep, extreme global warming is just around the corner.


You don’t have to be a moron to be a liberal Democrat but it sure helps.

docdave on November 20, 2007 at 01:58 pm

Carrick I’ve heard that we’ve actually been static or even cooling the last 3 years? 

Any basis for that?


What’s going to happen to US industry when the global warming extremists like John McCain double the price of electricity?  I would think all these factories will close and set up in countries where they aren’t scared of technology.


The Whistler's signature
The Whistler on November 20, 2007 at 02:10 pm

In related stories, South America experienced their coldest winter in around 100 years.

I believe the same is true for just about the entire southern hemisphere, including South Africa, and Australia, both of which experienced unusually severe winters.


“Poverty of goods is easily cured; poverty of the mind is irreparable.”

Bat One on November 20, 2007 at 02:57 pm

Whistler:

Carrick I’ve heard that we’ve actually been static or even cooling the last 3 years?

No, but the global mean temperature has been pretty much stable since 1998.  That is the last ten years globally have not exhibited significant global warming (for example the global mean temperature was -0.03°C cooler than 1998).

Carrick on November 20, 2007 at 04:47 pm

That is the last ten years globally have not exhibited significant global warming (for example the global mean temperature was -0.03°C cooler than 1998).

Oh I’d call that a trend.  OK Seriously isn’t that a huge problem for those proving manmade global warming?

It seems to me since CO2 concentrations are higher now then 1998 that would blow away their entire theory.


What’s going to happen to US industry when the global warming extremists like John McCain double the price of electricity?  I would think all these factories will close and set up in countries where they aren’t scared of technology.


The Whistler's signature
The Whistler on November 20, 2007 at 05:12 pm

Whistler:

It seems to me since CO2 concentrations are higher now then 1998 that would blow away their entire theory.

If the theory is that the only reason the temperature is increasing is because there’s more CO2 in the atmosphere, that’s true.

If you force them to admit that the Sun plays a role, then they are in immediate trouble of course.  Because first we probably don’t understand the full role that the Sun plays on climate, and we can’t really say how much of the temperature increase is natural versus man-made.

Carrick on November 20, 2007 at 05:20 pm

If the theory is that the only reason the temperature is increasing is because there’s more CO2 in the atmosphere, that’s true.

That is in fact what they’re saying, at least for public/political consumption.


What’s going to happen to US industry when the global warming extremists like John McCain double the price of electricity?  I would think all these factories will close and set up in countries where they aren’t scared of technology.


The Whistler's signature
The Whistler on November 20, 2007 at 05:21 pm

Yep.  I agree that’s exactly what many of them are saying, even in technical publications.  The same models that can’t explain the warming trend from circa 1905-1945, the subsequent cooling to 1980, nail the period 1980-2000 (only because the temperature was increasing and so was the CO2), also cannot explain the relatively flat temperatures from 1998-current.

I think it is because the models are defective, personally.

Carrick on November 20, 2007 at 05:26 pm

I think it is because the models are defective, personally.

I don’t know how any person can come up with any other conclusion given those facts.

I just read that science wasn’t about consensus, but rather rigorous testing. 

They’ve failed.


What’s going to happen to US industry when the global warming extremists like John McCain double the price of electricity?  I would think all these factories will close and set up in countries where they aren’t scared of technology.


The Whistler's signature
The Whistler on November 20, 2007 at 05:36 pm
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