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Friday, March 23, 2007

Man Causing Global Warming?  Methinks Thou Dost Protest Too Much

The fly sat upon the axel-tree of the chariot-wheel and said,
What a dust do I raise!
—Aesop, Greece, 6th Century, BC

Between cows farting, Hummers humming and smokestacks belching pollution into the sky, the Earth is undergoing changes.  But to what extent?  Are we (humans) the cause? And most importantly, can we (the humans again) do anything about it?

Left unsaid by the Humans-Causing-Global-Warming mythologists, the hockey-stick-graphing Alarmists, is the other potential cause of Climate Change:
the interplay between the Sun and the Earth. 

More to the point, the sun’s blasting many billions tons of material into space in the course of a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME).  One such blast may be the equivalent to the mass of 200,000 cruise ships—not a trivial amount of energy. 

When one of these blasts is directed to Earth, this mass of ionized particles—energy if you will—collides with the magnetic fields surrounding the Earth, collectively known as the Van Allen Belts (see the graph above).

Normally, the Earth’s magnetic field, which shares a polarity similar to the Sun, deflects much of this energy.  However, solar and geomagnetic researchers have observed that our magnetic shield is diminishing, even if slowly.  Could THAT be a cause of any natural, cyclic climate change?

Earth’s Magnetic Field is Fading

Earth’s geodynamo creates a magnetic field that shields most of the habited parts of our planet from charged particles that come mostly from the sun. The field deflects the speeding particles toward Earth’s Poles.

Without our planet’s magnetic field, Earth would be subjected to more cosmic radiation. The increase could knock out power grids, scramble the communications systems on spacecraft, temporarily widen atmospheric ozone holes, and generate more aurora activity.

Cracks in Earth’s Defenses Let Space Storms In

Earth’s magnetic field emanates from the poles and extends beyond the atmosphere and past the highest Earth-orbiting satellites.

Earth’s natural defenses are routinely compromised by huge cracks that open up for hours, allowing space storms to pour through like a hurricane through an open window.

The magnetic field absorbs the brunt of a solar storm, which is a huge cloud of charged particles, ions and electrons. The Sun constantly spits out a “wind” of these particles. During intense activity, it can shoot a coronal mass ejection (CME) our way. A CME—the most damaging sort of solar storm—is to the solar wind what a hurricane is to a summer breeze.

Magnetic Storms Rip Through Earth’s Magnetosphere

A magnetic storm produces about a million megawatts of electricity, enough to power the United States. the Sun regularly sends massive solar explosions of radiative plasma with the intensity of a billion megaton bombs hurtling through the solar system. The travel time for the solar wind from the Sun to the Earth is two to four days.

The Sun’s corona can rip open and spew as much as 20 billion tons of material into space—equivalent to the mass of 200,000 cruise ships. These explosions are known as coronal mass ejections (CMEs), the hurricanes of space weather.

When a CME ploughs into the solar wind, it can create a shock wave that accelerates particles to dangerously high energies. Behind that shock wave, the CME expands into a huge cloud that engulfs planets in its path with plasma.

The solar wind pushes and stretches Earth’s protective magnetic field into a vast, comet-shaped region called the magnetosphere. The magnetosphere and Earth’s atmosphere protect us from the solar wind and other solar and cosmic radiations.

Luckily for us, few CMEs are aimed at the Earth. If a CME erupts on the side of the Sun facing us, the results around Earth can be spectacular and sometimes hazardous.

At the speed of light, flashes of X-rays and ultraviolet rays from the Sun arrive at the Earth in 8 minutes. Hitting the atmosphere they cause disturbances in the ionosphere, which reflects radio signals. Changes in the ionosphere can interrupt short-wave radio transmissions and cause errors in navigation systems.

Also at a high speed, but following a curved path, solar protons and other energetic particles from the Sun reach the Earth in an hour or two. They can harm astronauts, damage spacecraft and if they reach the ground they can cause errors in computers.

Gusts and shocks in the solar wind due to an eruption take a few days to reach the Earth. When they arrive, they buffet the Earth’s magnetic shield, the magnetosphere, causing a magnetic storm, which makes compass needles wander. The varying magnetic field can provoke damaging surges of current in long metallic structures such as power lines and pipelines. The magnetic disturbances can also dump particles from space into the upper air, where they cause auroras.

An average solar flare or CME releases, in two hours, enough energy to power the United States for 10,000 years.

and here…

At present, the overall geomagnetic field is becoming weaker at a rate which would, if it continues, cause the field to disappear, albeit temporarily, by about 4000 AD. Other sources have put the date of field collapse as early as 3000 AD. The strong deterioration began at least 150 years ago and has accelerated in the past several years; however, it should be noted that the geomagnetic intensity has declined almost continuously from a maximum achieved approximately 2000 years ago. So far the strength of the Earth’s field has decreased by 10 to 15 percent over the last 150 years, and approximately 35% over the last 2000 years.

and here…

The energy in sunlight at the top of the atmosphere, for example, is 1.4 kilowatts per square meter, which reduces to about 1 kW/m2 by the time it reaches the Earth’s surface. The size of the target is p RE2, or about 1.2 x 108 km2 (1 RE is defined as one Earth radius, or about 6378 km). That means the total solar energy hitting Earth is about 1017 Watts!

So to discount the massive amounts of energy we are being bombarded with by our nearest star, and then to focus on car exhaust and cow farts seems to be engaging in delusions of grandeur as to how much effect man really has on this, our Spaceship Earth.

Comments

I saw a programme on TV that suggested that the earth’s weakening magnetic field is a symptom of impending (within the next 150 years) polar shift. That the field will weaken over that period (during which compass travel will be impossible and there will be aurora throughout the world on a nightly basis) and at some point the poles will shift (or swap over). Then the magnetosphere will become stronger again. I keep searching for it again, but haven’t been able to find the reference yet.


Do not fear to be eccentric in opinion, for every opinion now accepted was once eccentric.

ManofFireandLight on March 24, 2007 at 02:51 am

Flamer, it’s done that in the past so it’s not impossible. 

But how are they going to blame that on western civilization?


What’s going to happen to US industry when the global warming extremists like John McCain double the price of electricity?  I would think all these factories will close and set up in countries where they aren’t scared of technology.


The Whistler's signature
The Whistler on March 24, 2007 at 06:13 am

Is that a new nickname?

I’m sure they could find a way, if they felt the need.


Do not fear to be eccentric in opinion, for every opinion now accepted was once eccentric.

ManofFireandLight on March 24, 2007 at 06:20 am

MZ, you done did it again! How they a gonna scaremonger all us peons if’n you keep smackin’em with actual scientific data. Your not playing fair!

Limey, I have read that piece, not certain, but I do belive it was in Nature Magazine about 10-12 years ago. Or perhaps the Geophysical Union Newsletter. It has also, several years ago, been mentioned in National Geographic. It was not the primary subject, only part of an article concerning migratory birds, if I recall correctly.

Again MikeZulu, excellent post! Do you mind if I digg it? Hope not, because thats next.


Una Salus Victus Nullam Sperare Salutem

2Hotel9 on March 24, 2007 at 06:52 am

Is that a new nickname?

Yeah, I couldn’t get into the MOFAL or even the Limey.


What’s going to happen to US industry when the global warming extremists like John McCain double the price of electricity?  I would think all these factories will close and set up in countries where they aren’t scared of technology.


The Whistler's signature
The Whistler on March 24, 2007 at 06:54 am

Toot ain’t feeling the love, Limey!


Una Salus Victus Nullam Sperare Salutem

2Hotel9 on March 24, 2007 at 06:56 am

Wow. the more you read about the phenomona that affect the earth, the more you see how provincial and narrow many of the climate doom and gloomers are.  I feel so fortunate to live when I do.

Zsa Zsa on March 25, 2007 at 05:50 am

Thanks folks! Please, Digg away.

Yes,I live within SCUD range of the NASA launch pads and they run NASA programming 24/7.  While not always riveting, they have shown that science is often IMHO far more interesting than anything that the Great Social Corrosive — Hollywood — could ever come up with.

Just the good fortune of location, I guess.  But having watched their programming and learned about the Van Allen Belts, Space Weather, Coronal Mass Ejections and the upcoming Pole Shift, hearing the BS that AlGore spews out is maddening.

Consider the arrogance and blindness of the Algoreians: assuming the Sun is remaining at a fairly constant 93 million miles from the Sun, a slight tilt, occasioned by the Earth in her stately dance through her orbit, determines whether you are living in a boiling desert, in a temperate zone, or locked in perpetual cold. 

Our relationship with the Sun is very much like sleeping with a friendly elephant.  It may not intend any harm, but it’s sheer size means that every belch or shift of position, affects us tremendously.

Consider the massive size comparison between the Earth and Sun.
2004910901782531924_th.jpg

You cannot see it in the thumbnail, but upon downloading the original you will see the Earth as a small dot on the Sun’s upper right hand side.

Yes, the Sun affects us, and a loss in our protective magnetic shield (kinda like the Death Star, hey?) will mean we’ll all have to go out slathered in SUNBLOCK 2000, if at all.

With regard to our English friend, I vote for moniker MOFO, and that with all due respect, as he has shown that he is open to reason and will consider new data, unlike trolls whose purpose is simply to get those Yanks all wound up.


...for great justice

egpzpj.jpg

Move_Zig on March 25, 2007 at 09:18 pm

Thanks for that MZ!

P.S.

assuming the Sun is remaining at a fairly constant 93 million miles from the Sun,

I didn’t know ours was a binary system!


Do not fear to be eccentric in opinion, for every opinion now accepted was once eccentric.

ManofFireandLight on March 26, 2007 at 12:37 pm

There is speculation that Sol and Alpha Cent are a combined orbital system, though that is a bit more than 93 million miles.


Una Salus Victus Nullam Sperare Salutem

2Hotel9 on March 26, 2007 at 02:49 pm

Where? That sounds intriguing?


Do not fear to be eccentric in opinion, for every opinion now accepted was once eccentric.

ManofFireandLight on March 26, 2007 at 02:51 pm

It was kicked around in the late ‘70s, have not heard much recently. Just one of those odd bits I never quite forget.


Una Salus Victus Nullam Sperare Salutem

2Hotel9 on March 26, 2007 at 03:27 pm

assuming the Sun is remaining at a fairly constant 93 million miles from the Sun,

Dammit MOFO,

I mean Dunkirk

er....

The Earth…


...for great justice

egpzpj.jpg

Move_Zig on March 26, 2007 at 10:26 pm

ADDENDUM

Another aspect important to how well the Earth’s magnetic fields shield us from the blasts off the Sun—or not—may depend in part upon the POLARITY of the respective magnetic fields.

It is general knowledge that the Earth has a magnetic field and that compasses operate by detecting the North-South orientation of these magnetic lines of flux.  The Earth in this respect, has been likened to a large bar magnet.  For the sake of argument, let us assume that the bar magnet’s North Pole coincides with the Earth’s North Pole.

The Sun also shares this characteristic, in that it too has a North and South magnetic pole.

You might recall in grade school science class the fun with magnets experiments.  First, with the bar magnet laying on the workbench, a piece of paper being laid over it and finely shaved iron filings poured out onto the paper. 

2000225363328502934_rs.jpg

By gently tapping the paper the iron filings would align themselves with the North South lines of flux, dipping in towards the North and South ends.

The second step of this experiment was to try to force two North ends of separate magnets together—only to have them push off from one another, since Like Repels

Flip one of the bar magnets and they are powerfully drawn together since Opposites Attract.

Well, if our magnetosphere has been protecting us from the Sun’s Coronal Mass Ejections, it is also partly because our North Poles were both North - repelling the masses of charged particles shot out to the Earth.

But the Sun, every 11 years flips it’s magnetic poles, in a period called SOLAR MAX.

The Earth on the other hand, has changed it’s North and South poles many times, but at very erratic intervals.  Some say were are overdue for a Polar Shift.

During those times when the Earth and Sun’s poles are in opposition, much of the shielding effect of the Van Allen Belts is lost.  During those times we see losses in telecommunications, power outages and Northern Light displays further South than one normally sees them (the South Pole also has Northern Lights, but they are called Aurora Australis).

I don’t claim to be a scientist or engineer, so polarity itself may not be a major factor, however, it does seem that our protective magnetic shield has been declining for some time now, perhaps exposing the Earth’s surface to more of the Sun’s energy.

Thus a candidate for the true cause of any Global Warming / Climate Change????


...for great justice

egpzpj.jpg

Move_Zig on March 26, 2007 at 11:16 pm

An alternative hypothesis. Though I think we all agree that that issue is far too complicated to be able to attribute it to one cause.


Do not fear to be eccentric in opinion, for every opinion now accepted was once eccentric.

ManofFireandLight on March 27, 2007 at 12:41 pm

Yes, just because A’Tuin turns to left or right does not mean the world is ending.


Una Salus Victus Nullam Sperare Salutem

2Hotel9 on March 27, 2007 at 05:26 pm
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