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Friday, June 01, 2007

Jobs, Payroll and Employment Numbers in for May

The BLS reported their May employment numbers:

Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 157,000 in May, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.5 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today.  Health care and food services added jobs, while employment declined in manufacturing.  Average hourly earnings rose by 6 cents, or 0.3 percent, over the month.

The number of unemployed persons (6.8 million) and the unemployment rate (4.5 percent) were unchanged in May.  The jobless rate has ranged from 4.4 to 4.6 percent since September 2006.  Over the month, the jobless rates for the major worker groups--adult men (4.0 percent), adult women (3.8 percent), teenagers (15.7 percent), whites (3.9 percent), blacks (8.5 percent), and Hispanics (5.8 percent)--showed little or no change.  The unemployment rate for Asians was 2.9 percent, not seasonally adjusted.

Average hourly earnings of production and nonsupervisory workers on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 6 cents, or 0.3 percent, in May to $17.30, seasonally adjusted.  Average weekly earnings grew by 0.6 percent over the month to $586.47.  Over the year, average hourly and weekly earnings rose by 3.8 and 4.1 percent, respectively.


Now, it appears to me that this means that your average American worker is earning 4% more than they did a year ago, that unemployment for adults is around 4%, and that the economy has created pushing 10M jobs since 2003 when the Bush tax cuts went into effect.

The markets have taken notice of the positives:

The economic data capped a week of better-than-forecast earnings and acquisitions that added to more than $1 trillion in takeovers so far this year. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index surpassed its 2000 record and set two more peaks this week, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average today reached its 26th high for the year.

``We’ve had a well-balanced economic picture, very low inflation and good earnings,’’ said Lincoln Anderson, who helps manage $150 billion as chief investment officer of LPL Financial Services in Boston. ``The combination is great for stocks.’’

The S&P 500 added 5.72, or 0.4 percent, to 1536.34. The Dow average increased 40.47, or 0.3 percent, to 13,668.11. The Nasdaq Composite Index climbed 9.4, or 0.4 percent, to 2613.92.

The S&P 500 gained 1.4 percent in the week, while the Dow added 1.2 percent and the Nasdaq 2.2 percent. Exchanges were closed May 28 for the Memorial Day holiday.


Clearly what this means for the American economy is that:

  • Outsourcing is getting worse and more and more good paying jobs are going overseas.
  • The good jobs that paid high wages are going to India so that a few corporate execs can get massive bonuses and the new jobs that are left behind are at Walmart or in the services sector that pay next to nothing.
  • Most American adults cannot make ends meet on two incomes and the minimum wage needs to rise so that struggling adults with families can get by.
  • Tax cuts will only benefit the rich and the lost revenue will cut into services that the poor and the unemployed need so they can get by.


We see that every single premise offered is wrong.  The tax cuts are creating jobs which increases the competition for workers forcing companies to pay more.  Adult unemployment is almost non-existent (especially for whites, but is at historic lows--lower than during the Clinton boom years--for minorities as well) so employers can only pay the worst performing adults minimum wage because there are so many new jobs created every day.  Teenagers that lack job skills are the most likely to be unemployed and also by far the most likely to make minimum wage. The “outsourcing” boogeyman that Dems campaigned on the last two election cycles does not exist at the Macroeconomic level.  Some jobs have gone overseas and that sucks for the people that lose them.  But the economy as a whole has created close to 10M net jobs since 2003 and that is counting the job losses to “outsourcing”.  If the new jobs created were low paying, average hourly wages would be dropping not rising.

Hating Bush and wanting these things to be untrue due to that hatred, or hating the wealthy because they drive H2’s and keep getting richer, is not sufficient to logically ignore the facts.  Whining about homelessness, or lack of healthcare, or poor wages, or unemployment is not enough to override the facts.  Having a bleeding heart may indeed cut the blood flow to one’s brain that processes economic data, but the facts are in--Republican policies of tax cuts, less regulation, and a pro-business climate work.  They stimulate job growth and that benefits everyone.  Even the middle class working man has a 401k and the rising stock market and rising wages are good for the middle class.  Wage growth is outpacing inflation and a huge part of that is due to the “Walmart effect” or the forced lower prices and efficiencies that Walmart has placed on all businesses by creating competition. Now, I will open it up to the trolls to post how wrong I am on all accounts and why we need Hillary, Barack, or John “haircut, two Americas” Edwards to save the country from poverty.  Please enlighten us:

Comments

Not quite the 90’s.
Seven years of stagnation
2000041411337600545_rs.jpgSeven

Seven years of bad luck,
good things in your past

When you believe in things
that you don’t understand,
Then you suffer,
Superstition ain’t the way

WOOF on June 1, 2007 at 06:11 pm

Interesting and well thought out. I enjoyed reading your economic analysis; it was presented very clearly. For what my two cents is worth, I’m posting a lighter version of outsourcing; actually it’s a re-posting from my other blog.

ONLY IN AMERICA? I DON’T THINK SO.

By now we’re all familiar with outsourcing, the “off-shoring” of jobs traditionally held by American workers to other countries because of labor costs.  America has been doing this for decades in the manufacturing industry, and we as a people have more or less accepted it, until it reaches our doorstep.  We think our jobs cannot possibly be done overseas by someone else.  It’s actually happening now to some extent in Health Care. 

Let’s say you’re a hospital administrator, CFO specifically, and you have to cut the budget across the board.  You can’t possibly afford to cut back on necessary personnel, of course, the doctors and nurses, so you look at the jobs that don’t require direct patient contact.  You and your department managers discuss the kinds of jobs that could possibly be outsourced, reducing the costs of wages and health insurance, pension plans, and the like.  Many jobs exist in different departments that can be outsourced (and in some cases, entire departments).  Here a just a few that come to mind where most of the employees can be eliminated because their jobs can be outsourced: Information Systems, Payroll, Human Resources, Medical Transcription is already outsourced, and eventually the entire Medical Records Department due to the mandated Electronic Medical Record in a few years. 

I was shocked when I heard of a hospital that actually outsourced its weekend and emergency radiologists because it saved their budget hundreds of thousands of dollars.  How is this possible? They download the image (x-ray, CT scan, MRI) onto a CD-ROM, it’s “read” by the computer, and sent as an encrypted attachment to a radiologist in India, who reads it, and a voice recognition system actually types his dictation into the computer.  With one click, the report is sent back to the hospital in America.

But wait! There’s more! I just picked up the May issue of FSB (Fortune Small Business) and I have to tell you what I read.  The title of this article is “JET-SET SURGERY.” Health-care costs have escalated so much that some employers are saving money by flying their employees abroad for inexpensive medical procedures!  It’s a growing practice; the slang for it is “medical tourism”.  It makes a lot of sense to me. Surgery abroad costs 30-80% less.  For example, coronary artery bypass graft, approximately $75,000 here in the U.S., is under $12,000, and that includes roundtrip airfare.  Who can argue?  There’s even kind of a travel agency that hooks you up with all the arrangements.  Global Choice Health Care.  They use providers who are accredited from the JCI (Joint Commission International).  If you want great looking dental implants and want to save many thousands of bucks, go to Costa Rica or Brazil.  How about a couple of hip replacements in India? In South Africa, they do terrific cosmetic and reconstructive surgery. 

Well, I’m glad I don’t work for anyone other than myself.  And it won’t be anytime soon before I fly.  Haven’t been on a plane in 37 years.

angelina on June 2, 2007 at 09:15 am

Superstition?  With the dot-com bubble and Enron, the “Clinton prosperity” was mostly superstition.  The reality is that his raping the military is simply an expense that was passed on to the Bush Administration, and the damage is not yet all undone, especially in the Intel sector.  We’re still paying for the “Clinton prosperity”.


Media uncovers more Palin stories in one weekend than Obama stories in two years. Still no bias detected

Obama: more experienced than Bristol Palin

robert108 on June 2, 2007 at 09:24 am

Woof, you absolute douche.  It is obvious that you don’t have a 401k or any stocks in the S&P 500 whatsoever to post a graphic that is blatantly and completely false.  The scale on the left indicates that the S&P was at almost 5000 under Clinton.

Let’s try the actual S&P 500 from yahoo.com:

<img alt="spx.png" src="http://www.ski-blog.com/images/spx.png" width="512" height="288" >

Note that if you took a ruler and lined it up for about the last 40 years, including over the last six or seven, it would be almost a completely straight line, except for 1996 to late 1999, where it had a big spike then a sharp drop.  Still holding the straight line, it looks like a “bubble” over the line.  It seems out of place.

Not quite the 90’s.
Seven years of stagnation

Yeah, good answer.  How have your stocks been doing lately?  Ever heard of the dot.com boom and bust?  You think that had any influence at all?  The recession that started under Clinton?  9-11?

Justin B. on June 2, 2007 at 07:12 pm

spx.png

Justin B. on June 2, 2007 at 07:13 pm

The chart shows the S&P back to where it was in 2000.

What cost $1.00 in 1999 would cost $1.20 in 2006.

Also, if you were to buy exactly the same products in 2006 and 1999,
they would cost you $1.00 and $0.83 respectively.

Do the inflation math

WOOF on June 3, 2007 at 09:48 am

Do the inflation math

Fair enough.  Seventeen cents divided by 7 years equals 2.4, which is about what inflation has been averaging in our economy.  The flaw in your leftie economic thinking is that the products are the same.  In computers and TV sets, for instance, you get a lot more for your dollar now than you did in 1999, due to market forces.  Your static analysis just isn’t accurate.  Nice try, though.


Media uncovers more Palin stories in one weekend than Obama stories in two years. Still no bias detected

Obama: more experienced than Bristol Palin

robert108 on June 3, 2007 at 10:09 am

The chart shows the S&P back to where it was in 2000.

WOOF,

You are unquestionably good at being glib, but I wonder if you are anywhere near as capable at being rational.  Particularly where economic policy is concerned.  For example, can you make a modestly compelling case that the country’s economic system wouldn’t be far, far worse under an AlGore presidency?  Somehow, I doubt it.

The recession that began with the tech bubble burst in late summer of 2000 and the economic effects of the 9-11 attacks would have been no less severe if Mr. Gore had not lost his home state of Tennessee and the 2000 election.  And it is probably safe to assume that a Gore presidency would not have offered any economic policies to counteract the economic downturn as have the Bush tax cuts.  Democrats have shown themselves to be vehemently opposed to any sort of effective tax cuts, which leaves us with the very real question of where the stimulus to move the economy out of recession would have come from had the Democrats been in charge.  Perhaps Mr. Gore would have relied on the very same combination of willful ignorance and wishful thinking that marked the Clinton/Gore approach to Islamist terrorism?  Of course, Gore is nowhere near as skillful with those very public crocodile tears that Clinton used to bamboozle his audiences into thinking he was actually moved by the suffering and outrage caused by terrorists or was actually accomplishing anything in response to their attacks.

Certainly there’s been no talk from Democrats of late about continued economic growth.  I can’t think of one single Democrat candidate who has mentioned the need for continued economic growth, or suggested a policy to spur that growth.  In fact, if there’s one thing the Democrats all seem to agree on, besides surrender to Islamist terrorists, its surrender to the temptation to cut off continued economic growth by raising taxes.

Glib is certainly cute… but nothing else.  Once again, you’ve added nothing meaningful to the conversation.


“Poverty of goods is easily cured; poverty of the mind is irreparable.”

Bat One on June 3, 2007 at 11:07 am

Bat: Great points.  In fact we have hard evidence of how things would have proceeded under a Dem administration: the proposed 400 billion tax increase they want to sock us with.  Can you imagine what the taxes would have been under Dem control since 2000?
Talk about outsourcing!


Media uncovers more Palin stories in one weekend than Obama stories in two years. Still no bias detected

Obama: more experienced than Bristol Palin

robert108 on June 3, 2007 at 11:18 am

Do the inflation math

Do the PE ratio math.  If you want to talk S&P 500, at least talk about the fundamentals.  Do a PE Ratio graph over the past 25 years.  I explained more about PE ratios and the fact that the PE ratio in 2000 was 45 and todays is around 17.

That means that if today’s PE ratios were at 45 like they were during the dot.com bubble, the stock market would be at 3500-3750 instead of 1500.

Today’s stock market is based on Earnings as evidenced by a PE Ratio that is close to historic averages.  The correction of the market to normal levels took almost 4 years.  The growth cycle the last 3-4 years has been based on earnings growth and most analysts believe a PE ratio of 18-19 is the target, meaning that today the market is still undervalued by 10% or so.

Give us a primer on the market, Woof.  How are your investments doing?  Do you understand why, or are you one of those investors that bought pets.com or e-junk.com during their IPO and thought you were going to be a billionair like Warren Buffet?

Justin B. on June 3, 2007 at 12:20 pm

Justin,

WOOF’s too busy being glib to be cogent.


“Poverty of goods is easily cured; poverty of the mind is irreparable.”

Bat One on June 4, 2007 at 05:30 am

Justin,

How about a primer on incentives while we’re at it?  Specifically, incentives relating to capital and the effect that the level of taxation on capital has on markets.

What’s amazing, besides the obtuse economic illiteracy of those on the Left, is the level of economic growth despite such Democrat-inspired impediments as Sarbanes-Oxley.

We had a stark reminder a few months back of what the disincentive of increased taxes on capital can do to the markets, when the mere suggestion of a tax hike on capital by the Chinese government tanked the Shanghai market, and within hours the NYSE as well.

People who gleefully suggest the taxation of anything that moves, are in no position to be have their economic and tax policy prescriptions taken seriously.


“Poverty of goods is easily cured; poverty of the mind is irreparable.”

Bat One on June 4, 2007 at 06:01 am
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