Is the Real Problem for Republicans Conservative Democrats?
Much has been made of the 2006 elections being a referendum on the Republican Party & especially on the Iraq War. In fact, if you listen to liberals, you will hear the claim that anti-war, pro-life and other liberal values are sweeping their candidates into office. Such a claim, which is typically based on generic Senate and House polling data, do not look at the realities that drive individual voters’ decisions in local races.
It would be very interesting to do a complete survey, but if you look at some of the US Senate races where Republicans are in trouble, or strongly challenged, you find a picture very much at odds with this “liberal rising tide” pushed by the left & the main stream media. What is really happening, I think, is that Republican candidates are being simply being challenged by conservative Democratic opponents.
Take for example, Bob Casey of Pennsylvania: pro-life, anti-abortion, probably favors the war in Iraq but has to play a balancing game to keep his radical liberal base on board. In this example, Santorum is also a very weak candidate running against a much more competent politician. Santorum’s big problem is that this election is a referendum on him, with no “distracting factors” of an opposing ideology or an inept opponent to keep moderate voters on board.
Then we can consider the case of the Whistler’s favorite author, James Webb of Virginia. Not exactly a leftie, as he is pro-military, served as a Republican under Ronald Reagan, running on a very conservative (for a DNC candidate) platform.
In Tennessee we have another social conservative, Harold Ford, and a consummate politician.
In races where ultraliberal strongly anti-war challengers are running against more conservative or pro-war incumbants, such as Ned Lamout in Connecticut, it does appear to be the case that the challenger is getting pounded.
In the end, it is probably safe to conclude that the real problem that the Republicans in many key elections are facing is one of competence and stronger opponents who are frankly not that different in ideology from their Republican counterparts.
