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Tuesday, February 05, 2008

Iran Being Cut Off

A fourth underwater telecommunications cable between Iran and OPEC countries has been cut in about a week. The cables carry both Internet and regular telephone traffic and TelCos have started using IP to transmit long distance calls because it’s cheaper. The odds of this happening accidentally are greater than winning the lotto. Most telecom people would say that this is impossible.

The thing that immediately comes to mind is that, like Saddam did prior to the invasion and Chavez is currently doing, Iran has started demanding oil payments in Euros. OPEC monarchs agreed, in exchange for protection from external forces and internal coupes, to hedge the dollar by pricing oil in U.S. currency. As the dollar continues to fall, the Euro is a more attractive form of payment.

If Iran is able to talk a couple of OPEC kings into following suit, no amount of interest rate cutting or tax rebates could stop the fall.

Cable Cuts!

Comments

Sounds like a Naval Special Warfare op, possibly with an ROV and a Glomar Explorer or two.

Good to cut off their commo before hitting them with the ordinance.

I hope, I hope.


...for great justice

egpzpj.jpg

Move_Zig on February 5, 2008 at 12:24 pm

By an odd coincidence (?), former UN Ambassador John Bolton has an OpEd in today’s WSJ about “Our Politicized Intelligence Services” calling on DNI Michael McConnell to revise the most recent NIE on Iran to accurately reflect the threat, while a report out of Israel notes that Mossad head Meir Dagan has reported that his agency expects Iran to have nuclear weapons within three years.

The likelihood that the cable interruptions are accidental is miniscule.  The only really question is whose Op is this?

In any event, the fact that the telcos have gone to VOIP certainly doesn’t hurt our ability to monitor their communications.


“Poverty of goods is easily cured; poverty of the mind is irreparable.”

Bat One on February 5, 2008 at 12:48 pm

Same region, but not all affected communication lines between Iran and OPEC.  One affected India, another Bangladesh, a third to Egypt.

It isn’t a coincidence of course.  There’s global-warming inspired winter storms off Egypt that have forced a rerouting or maritime traffic.  People have been dropping cables where they aren’t supposed to, leading to the outages.

Egypt “proved” that it couldn’t be maritime traffic because it is marked as a “no go” zone on their maps, and it is therefore illegal for ships to go there.  Some proof.

Conspiracy theories work better when you omit facts.

Carrick on February 5, 2008 at 01:22 pm

Meant to say “ People have been dropping anchors”

Carrick on February 5, 2008 at 01:23 pm

9/11 truffers have a new conspiracy theory to toddle about with. Too fucking funny.


Una Salus Victus Nullam Sperare Salutem

2Hotel9 on February 5, 2008 at 03:36 pm

seems to me that the nut jobs are out again with their black helicopters. Give me a break, I bet George W. Bush did it himself after listening to the Iranians.


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goon on February 5, 2008 at 06:58 pm

Admittedly, the theory that the rapid-fire series of partings of communications channels to and from Iran may be evidence of a special op is pure conjecture.  Perhaps wishful thinking on my part, possibly egged on by my need for a distraction from the increasingly depressing election news.

Perhaps it’s that both the US and Israel are alarmed by Iran’s single-minded determination to get nuclear technology, wedded to its stated intention to use it once so armed.  Perhaps it’s based on Bush’s and Israels stated intentions not to allow a nuclear armed Iran and that the time for Bush to act is drawing to a close.  Perhaps it’s the fact that the cutting off international communications of a target country is one aspect of waging war on any enemy, per the US military doctrine of C3I (Command, Control and Communications - now being updated as ‘C4I’ to include computers) .  Perhaps it’s the saying that ’once is an accident, twice is coincidence, but three times is enemy action‘ makes this serial parting of subsea cables curiouser and curiouser.

Undersea (intelligence) operations go way back, at least to the Turtle‘s attack against English ships of the line during the Revolutionary War, to the ill-fated Hunley mission, to the unsung work of the Silent Service, such as the Glomar Explorer during the Cold War.

Ivy Bells continued until 1981 when its cover was blown by a U.S. spy.

The Russians also attempted to tap a U.S. undersea communication cable, apparently unsuccessfully. In 1985, U.S. spy satellites detected a Soviet sub loitering in a shallow part of the Atlantic. The Navy dispatched the attack sub USS BALTIMORE to secretly observe.

The Russian sub launched a sled and divers who probed the seafloor 300 feet below. The waters were too murky for the Americans to determine the Soviets mission, but they were digging and drilling, presumably to locate an undersea cable. The mission was believed to have ended in failure and tragedy when the sled and divers failed to return to the Soviet boat.

The most publicized U.S. intelligence- gathering action—secret for many years—was the raising of a Soviet missile firing sub that sank in the mid-Pacific on March 8, 1968. SOSUS picked up the sounds of the sub exploding and later USS HALIBUT, specially fitted with thrusters to enable it to sit motionless, located the wreckage using special cameras.


...for great justice

egpzpj.jpg

Move_Zig on February 5, 2008 at 10:43 pm

Two words, satellite communications. Oh, thats right, no satellites in the 7th century, or cables, or electricity, or pharmaceuticals, etc etc. The only use for technology Iran’s mullahs have is in using it to destroy Infidels. They are currently pushing a sermon against the common Muslim citizens accessing technology in their every day lives. Why? Because it is against the will of Allah.

Who is most adversely effected by these cable outages? India, Pakistan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia. Iran has very little IT industry to be hurt by this. So, who could gain the most from breaking cables? Whose evil, capitalistic activities are stuck at by this? Iran’s?


Una Salus Victus Nullam Sperare Salutem

2Hotel9 on February 6, 2008 at 05:42 am
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