Iowa Caucus: Post-Mortem
Initial reactions to the Iowa Caucus results seemed to be “well, this is what was expected.” This is far too simplistic an analysis. It is apparent that we are seeing a realignment of a 3-wing Republican Party.
First, Mike Huckabee represents not only the evangelical wing of the party, but the lower-income working-class Republicans. What is referred to as Huckabee’s populism is more accurately defined as pessimism: pessimism of the future, of corporate America, of the average American’s control over his own life. This is typically a feature of Democratic rhetoric, but it resonates with 3rd generation Dixiecrats who are the grandchildren of the original Dixiecrats that left the Democratic Party in the 1940’s.
Second, Mitt Romney represents the upper-middle class and upper-classes of the GOP. His ties to wealth and successful business management make him the ideal candidate for the investor class of the party that does not see inherent problems with globalization so long as the bottom-line is improved and the dividends continue. This is the new incarnation of the Country Club Republican.
Finally, Ron Paul represents the idealistic wing of the party. While this wing lacks a realistic view of the geo-political situation, it represents the most optimistic view of freedom and the future. In many ways, this is the core of Reagan Republicanism representing the “morning in America” attitude personified by Ronald Reagan.
In the end, it seems that the eventual nominee will be required to be a “fusion” candidate to bring these three wings of the party together. The most likely candidate to fulfill this position would be Fred Thompson, who seems to have no real opposition but just lacks cohesive support. As Huckabee and McCain fade away, this will change.
