Say Anything Blog

I’m not sure where the left got the impression that wars are susceptible to time lines and calendar deadlines.  Yet they seem to have.  This idiocy was recently on display as the usual idiots marked the fifth anniversary of the re-comemcement of hostilities with Iraq.

My reading of history certainly indicates that warfare knows no such limitations.  To take just a few examples:

Reconquista (722 - 1492)
Hundred Years’ War (1337 - 1453)
War of the Roses (1455 - 1487
Thirty Years War (1618 - 1648)
The Seven Years War (1756 - 1763)
Revolutionary War (American, 1775 - 1783)
French Revolution (1789 - 1799)
Napoleonic Wars (1803 - 1815)

Five years is so long?  These folks believe we should take them seriously!

”5 YEARS TO[sic] MANY” and ”Bring the Troops Home.”

What about the troops in Germany and Japan (there for the last 63 years)?  What about the troops in Korea (55 years)?  What about the Phillipine-American War and subsequent occupation (1899-1946)?

No, the proposition is absurd on its face.

And for those who wish to continue the historical examination, there’s more beneath the fold.

Operation Iraqi Freedom

The U. S. led invasion which overthrew the Ba’athist regime of Saddam Hussein was an unqualified success.  Coalition forces, which were outnumbered by the Iraqi defenders (where a 3:1 advantage is usually considered barely adequate for successful offensive operations) utterly crushed the Iraqis and in the process set an all time record for a military campaign.  The active hostilities against organized formations lasted a mere three weeks (March 19 - April 9).

The Perils of Success (Or everything should be this easy.)

Iraq is bordered by two nations (Syria and Iran) hostile to the United States.  In addition, Iraq shares a border with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.  While the Government of Saudi Arabia is arguably friendly towards the United States, large sections of the Wahabist population of the Kingdom are rather less so.  This combination, when taken with the regional tensions and the call to Jihad by terrorist elements, made Iraq a prime candidate for a foreign supported insurgency, which soon began.

Wars of Insurgency

Insurgency (defined as an organized movement aimed at the overthrow of a constituted government through use of subversion and armed conflict) in the post 19th Century era has been a spotty thing.

United States experience in the Philippines
1899 - 1902 Phillipine American War
1902 - 1913 Philippine Insurrection (defeated, duration 14 years)
1913 - 1934 Occupation
1935 - 1941 Philippines as U. S. Commonwealth
1942 - 1945 Japanese conquest and occuupation of the Philippines
1945 - 1946 Phillipines as U. S. Commonwealth
1946 - present Philippine independence, Republic of the Philippines

British Commonwealth and the Malayan Emergency
1948 - 1960 British and Commonwealth troops defeat insurrection
1960 - 1989 Last insurgents surrender to Malasian Government

Algerian War of Independence
1954 - 1962 Algeria forces France to withdraw

Angola
1961 - 1975 MPLA with Cuban assistance overthrows Portugeuese rule
1975 - 2002 Angolan Civil war between MPLA and UNITA

Eritrean War of Independence (from Ethiopia)
1961 - 1991 Eritrea becomes independent in 1991.

Vietnam
First Indochina War
1947 - 1954 French Colonial forces defeated by Viet Minh, Partition of Vietnam.
Second Indochina War
1955 - 1968 Republic of Vietnam with U.S. Assistance defeats Viet Minh insurgency
1969 - 1971 Republic of Vietnam maintains control
1972 - 1973 North Vietnamese Invasion (Easter Offensive) fails to overthrow South Vietnam
1970 - 1973 U. S. Forces are withdrawn from South Vietnam
1975 Second North Vietnamese Invasion overthrows South Vietnam

Box Score: Total Insurgencies, 7
Successful 4 (Algeria, Angola, Eritrea, Indochina I)
Defeated 3 (Philippines, Malaya, Indochina II)

Geographical Factors: Note that all four successful insurrections featured land borders and the opportunity for cross border support and no-go zones, while two of the three suppressed insurgencies were isolated archipelagos.  Note also that the third suppressed insurgency (Indochina II) was subsequently reversed by a series of conventional invasions.

The British and Commonwealth forces win the prize for shortest with the Malayan Emergency (12 years), with the United States defeating the insurgency portion of the Second Indochina War in 13 years and the Philippine Insurgency in 14 years.  Note that the Eritrean War of Independence dragged on for 30 years, as did the last hold outs in the Malayan Emergency.

The average length to put down an insurgency is 13 years.

Somehow, our five years in Iraq doesn’t seem excessive against the historical record.