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Monday, March 24, 2008

Historical Perspective on the next “Grim Milestone”

The “Grim Milestone” being the next thousand mark, 4,000 in this case, in U. S. casualties in Iraq.

Each and every lost life in Iraq is a tragedy.

But how do those losses (800/year, 4,000 in total) compare to historic loss rates?

Gateway Pundit has an excellent post from March 19th on this subject, in which he shows that our loss rate relative to our major wars and battles is positively miniscule (0.5% of the daily loss rate for the Battle of the Bulge).

I propose we compare our losses in Iraq to our previous counter insurgency of the same scale.

Philippine-American War/Insurrection
1899 - 1913 U. S. Casualties (Dead and Wounded) 5,000

The casualty rate for the Philippine-American War/Insurrection thus works out to about 357/year or about 1 (0.97) per day, as opposed to the 800/year, 2.19/day fatality rate in Iraq.

The difference in rates is easily explained by the differences in the nature of the two insurgencies.  The Philippine Archipelago was effectively isolated and was not a densely populated urban environment.  Iraq, by contrast, shares two long land borders with nations hostile to the United States, and most of the heavy fighting (and losses) have been in urban areas.  The difference in combat conditions are such that most historians would have expected a five to tenfold increase in loss rates for Iraq as opposed to the Philippine Insurrection. Thankfully, the combination of improved tactics, improved body armor, and greatly improved trauma treatment have more than compensated for the operational challenges.

For further reference, it’s worth noting that the first five years of the Iraq War/Insurgency have resulted in less loss of life among the Armed Forces than the first five years of “peacetime operations” in the Clinton Administration (5,199).

Comments

Bush – less dead kids than Roosevelt!

Onward, Christian soldiers, marching as to war,
with the cross of Jesus going on before.
Christ, the royal Master, leads against the foe;
forward into battle see his banners go!

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Excuse me, you were saying?


realitybasedbob's signature
realitybasedbob on March 24, 2008 at 09:22 am
Avatar for FlyOnTheWall

I looked up the historical average during the Clinton Presidency (the first one during the 90’s.) We averaged about 852 deaths a year mostly due to training exercises, accident, etc.  (Not just Clinton, held fairly well for a couple decades.)

We need some stories on the number of American lives saved by improving equipment and training.

FlyOnTheWall on March 24, 2008 at 09:26 am

FOTW,

The prospect of actual combat tends to focus the mind and motivate folks, which tends to reduce training fatalities (a lot of which are folks not paying attention).  Certainly the improvements in body armor have done a lot as well.  But from my readings the two largest factors are greatly improved tactical doctrine and giant leaps in trauma care.


Out Here
Rodney G. Graves

Ceterum censeo Parthia esse delendam
Latin: “Furthermore, Parthia (Persia aka modern day Iran) should be destroyed.”

Rodney Graves on March 24, 2008 at 10:00 am

If I may, let me add that another factor reducing casualties and their severity is the manner in which combat-seasoned NCOs and company and field grade officers are rotated in and out of combat, ensuring that training stateside and combat ops are both led by seasoned pros.  Technology aside, our single greatest asset is the institutional memory of combat operations.


“Poverty of goods is easily cured; poverty of the mind is irreparable.”

Bat One on March 24, 2008 at 10:20 am

rbbob - Bush – less dead kids than Roosevelt!

That’s an interesting take on who is responsible for the deaths.

Incidentally, it’s the same one our enemies share.

Interesting to note that you so often agree with our enemies. What do you think that says, bob?

likwidshoe on March 25, 2008 at 03:40 am

DYING IN DEFENSE OF THE MOTHERLAND/FATHERLAND IS DYING TO HAND DOWN THE NATION TO NEXT GENERATION, SO AS NOT END UP LIKE THE KURDS, PALESTINIANS, AND SO MANY OTHERS. BUT DYING IN DEFENSE OF A FOREIGN LAND-ROBBER NATION,ISRAEL, MOTIVATED ENTIRELY BY LOBBY MONEY IS TREASON. THE DEATH OF THE 4,000 IS BLOOD ON FACES OF THE NEO-CON/NEO-LIBS, AND THE AMERICAN PEOPLE ARE NOW SET TO ROCK THEM. THIS ELECTION IS BUT ONE BATTLE IN THE ONGOING AMERICA CULTURA WAR.

Jeugenen on March 25, 2008 at 06:27 am

Jeugenen thinks he’s going to “ROCK” us with his Neo-this and Neo-that talk involving various Israeli conspiracies. The lunatic actually believes that he speaks for the American people.

likwidshoe on March 25, 2008 at 06:54 am

likwidshoe,

Yep, a prime example of the tinfoil hat brigade.  Perhaps there is someone in the family that cares enough to stage an intervention…


Out Here
Rodney G. Graves

Ceterum censeo Parthia esse delendam
Latin: “Furthermore, Parthia (Persia aka modern day Iran) should be destroyed.”

Rodney Graves on March 25, 2008 at 07:05 am
Avatar for FlyOnTheWall

Jeugenen, I couldn’t make it four words into the scree.  Turn cap lock off and use sentences.  There could be something important in that jumble, the world may never know.

FlyOnTheWall on March 25, 2008 at 11:34 am

FOTW,

May I suggest skipping the “contributions” of our foil clad spittle spraying commenter (who almost makes realitydenyingboob look rational)?


Out Here
Rodney G. Graves

Ceterum censeo Parthia esse delendam
Latin: “Furthermore, Parthia (Persia aka modern day Iran) should be destroyed.”

Rodney Graves on March 25, 2008 at 01:23 pm
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