Say Anything Blog

I hope you’re right Kenny.

Obama scares the crap out of me.

And we can beat Hillary.  I think.

Last night Obama really disappointed his worshipers.  I saw it on fox after the debate.  He didn’t raise the dead, heal the sick or walk on water.  That’s the problem with Messiah’s (False) they always disappoint and end up in some bunker somewhere meeting a bad end.

the AVATAR
Old Tigers are more dangerous when they believe this could be their last hunt.

From , “The League of Extraordinary Gentlemen”
Old tigers, sensing the end,
they’re at their most fierce. 
And they go down fighting.

So Gene, Obama is Hitler?
Has he unveiled his Operation Poland Freedom plan yet?

And the nutter talk about Messiah…good for a laugh with oatmeal and orange juice.

I saw it on fox after the debate.

Nuff said.

“If a conservative is still a republican after the last 13 years, he is blind to the fact that his party of choice has failed him utterly.” – Realitybasedbob

Clinton and Obama will probably split the Texas delegates, 93-90 (Obama) and the Ohio delegates 70-56 (Clinton, some undecided-most likely to go to Clinton).

Given that the superdelegates have been going to Hillary at a rate of between 4-5 to Obama’s 3, Hillary is still the nominee given any way you look at the polls.

If the super delegates continue to vote the same way they have been, Obama doesn’t have a chance unless he starts beeing Hillary in 70-30 margins.

I think there is a real problem with that logic.  That makes the assumption that these Superdelegates are locked into one candidate or another.  They are still very fluid in that they can change their vote at any time, including during the convention itself.

There is a lot of deep seeded dislike for Hillary, even in the Dem party.  But there is even more fear.  Once the fear of the wrath of a now President Hillary goes away, she becomes just another Senator again.  Assuming that if the tide turns even slightly more in Obama’s favor, these Superdelegates will respect the will of the voters, not fear of the Clintons.

Another thing to note--what if white, affluent Superdelegates overturn the elected will of the voters and nominate Hillary over the African American candidate?  Doesn’t that imply that the Dem Party is a bunch of bigots?  I would hate to see that scenario play out because it would in all probability lead to riots.  There is a lot of pent up rioting that needs to go off.  There hasn’t been a good race riot in about 15 years.

Kenny,

There’s a really great steakhouse in Atlanta named “Bones” and I would be delighted to afford you the opportunity to demonstrate your remorse at having called this far too optimistically in favor of the Clintons, by buying my dinner there.  The steaks are as good as any you’ll find in Omaha, the winelist is superb… as is the service.  And both the coffee and the prices are more than appropriate.

“Poverty of goods is easily cured; poverty of the mind is irreparable.”

Kenny,
There’s a really great steakhouse in Atlanta named “Bones” and I would be delighted to afford you the opportunity to demonstrate your remorse at having called this far too optimistically in favor of the Clintons, by buying my dinner there.  The steaks are as good as any you’ll find in Omaha, the winelist is superb… as is the service.  And both the coffee and the prices are more than appropriate.

This is not an optimistic call, Bat One. But it is perspective. Hill has been taking SDs at a rate of ~4:3 over Obama. That’s a lead of at least 100-150 superdelegates.

There are months left in this race and anything can happen. I think anyone calling the race over (as many have done, even here) is downright silly. The race could go either way, but if the current trends continue, Hillary wins.

That doesn’t mean trends can’t change, but the “Obama is inevitable” people should take a look at this a bit more realistically.

And I tell you what Bat, while I’m not sure why I’d owe YOU a steak dinner...if you buy me a plane ticket to Atlanta, consider the steak dinner on me, one way or another.

Obama/Biden is not change. It’s more of the same.

Kenny,

I question whether Hillary’s SDs are all that secure, particularly given her extraordinarily high negatives in the polls.  I would have expected Kennedy/Kerry to go with Obama, or rather against the Clintons.  But John Lewis could easily windup taking the entire CBC with him and you know how fearful Democrats are of their indentured minority types.

Ordinarily, I don’t put much faith in polls, but those same polls had her marginally ahead going into the Wisconsin primary, and those negatives I refer to have remained steady at 45-50% for several years now.

I have a sense too that the Dems see McCain as an easy target this fall… kinda like Bob Dole was in 1996.  But if you subscribe to the notion that presidential elections are won or lost in the undecided middle, McCain is a far greater threat to the Democrats than they perceive.  The very issues that give conservatives fits are the ones that McCain resonates with independent and undecided voters.

While I agree that anything could happen between now and the conventions, Hillary is in some serious trouble right now, and her prospects are at best bleak.  She could very easily lose both Texas and Ohio, and that would certainly finish her.

“Poverty of goods is easily cured; poverty of the mind is irreparable.”

While I agree that anything could happen between now and the conventions, Hillary is in some serious trouble right now, and her prospects are at best bleak.  She could very easily lose both Texas and Ohio, and that would certainly finish her.

She’ll most likely lose Texas by a deficit of 3-5 delegates, not that devastating really. Ohio is probably hers, but since her lead is slipping, she could lose that by a slim margin too. Losing big states sucks, but it’s nowhere near as bad as anyone’s making it out to be, because the margins she’s losing by are slim.

The SDs are what are keeping Hillary in the race.

Obama/Biden is not change. It’s more of the same.

Don’t care as long as neither of them is elected.

You don’t have to be a moron to be a liberal Democrat but it sure helps.