Say Anything Blog

The actual exit poll results were very interesting in MI.  First, Romney won among non-evangelical Republicans, far outpacing Huck and the others.  Dramatically winning among non-Evangelicals almost 2-1.  Second, Romney won 36-29 among self described Evangelicals over Huckabee which caused Gene to go nuts and claim that any Evangelical that voted Romney doesn’t deserve to be called a Christian--they are CINOs or Christians in Name Only.  Sorry Gene, but if Romney won among non-Evangelicals and among CINOs, there ain’t enough people in your pigeon-holed category of Huckabee voters to win the election.  So Romney wins dramatically among Republican non-Evangelicals and wins among Evangelicals too.  How come it was close?

McCain won among Dems and Independents.  It is odd that the media and Democrats and Independents have so much influence in choosing the Republican nominee.  It is clear that Dems and Independents want McCain.  That should speak volumes about why he should not be the Republican nominee.

What is unclear is how large of a role Evangelicals will play from here on out.  If they do not vote overwhelmingly for Huckabee (like almost 3-1 for him), he has ZERO support among non-Evangelicals and is as good as done.  He can only win split decisions (if he can win those without overwhelming Evangelical support) where his plurality based on almost unanimous support from Evangelicals is sufficient to overcome a dilluted field.  McCain can only win in open primaries where Dems and Independents can vote.  Which explains each of their wins in Iowa and NH.

The bigger question is how long Rudy stays in.  His support is almost gone in Florida.  He is not competitive in SC.  And Fred’s goose is probably cooked if he doesn’t win SC, and honestly, he is probably fading anyway. 

So here is the summary of the hows and whats for each candidate:

Huckabee:

--CAN WIN IF: Evangelicals vote 3 or 4 to 1 for him over all other candidates and the votes for the rest of the candidates are sufficiently split that he has a larger plurality of votes.  Or in very heavily Evangelical states in the South.

--WON’T WIN BECAUSE: There just aren’t enough Evangelicals and their support is not unanimous enough to carry him.  Sorry, Gene, but there are too many “CINO’s” out there.

McCain:

CAN WIN IF: He can overcome McCain-Feingold and McCain-Kennedy among Conservatives or in states where there are open primaries.  He is polarizing among Conservatives and Republicans and unless there is a plurality and Dems and Independents can vote, he cannot win.

WON’T WIN BECAUSE: McCain-{insert Liberal co-sponsor here}.  Every piece of legislation that bears his name is unpopular with Conservatives.

Fred:

CAN WIN IF: I just don’t know.  He is my horse in the race and I have money riding on him, but most folks don’t watch debates and most don’t read blogs.  He doesn’t have Romney’s money.  He doesn’t have Huckabee’s Jesus.  He doesn’t have McCain’s Democrats and Indies.  I am trying to imagine a scenario where he wins the Powerball and can buy ads and wins every debate and gets some Ensure and Caffiene and makes a comeback.

WON’T WIN BECAUSE: Perceptions overpower substance.  It ain’t fair, but it is life.

Rudy:

CAN WIN IF: He regains momentum in Florida and wins all of the remaining big states on Super Tuesday.

WON’T WIN BECAUSE: His momentum is gone.  He has dropped 20pts in Florida in the last two months.  He is running out of money and momentum.

That leaves Romney:

CAN WIN IF: He continues to get strong support among non-Evangelicals and continues to pick up a solid share of Evangelicals from Huckabee.  He will do especially well in closed primaries because he is the viable candidate for voters dissatisfied with Liberal Huckabee and McCain.  Plus he has sick mad phat cash to spend on ads while other candidates are struggling to raise funds.  Romney is getting some serious help by folks like El Rushbo who is hammering on his opponents for their Liberal positions.  He needs momentum and Fred and Rudy to struggle so that folks will unite behind him as the not-McCain/Huckabee.

WON’T WIN BECAUSE: The only scenario that hurts him is a continued plurality between him, Thompson and Rudy splitting votes, If he cannot win the nomination outright and gets to a brokered convention, who knows. 

I think Romney with his money and his momentum is in the best position to win it.  It is a war of attrition and Romney’s personal fortune significantly help his chances.