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Tuesday, June 03, 2008

GOP Fears Massive Defeat In November

In a wide-ranging article, Washington Times writer S.A. Miller sees the potential for massive losses by the republicans in congress and the loss of the White House.

Focused on comments by voters, observations by Newt Gingrich and predictions by Rep. Chris Van Hollen, (D) MD, Chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, Miller paints a gloomy scenario in which disaffected republicans and bitter conservatives will simply “stay home” or vote democrat, giving the Dems a potentially historic margin of victory in November.

Considering that much of the article is reminiscent of observations made right here on SAB over the last 6 months, one could well ponder whether a sweeping victory by the left would inevitably mean sweeping changes in the way Washington does business for years to come.

Read and weep - or cheer - depending on your take on this election year.

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2008/jun/03/november-sit-out-threats-worry-gop/?page=2

Comments

It is expected that the McCain campaign will work to actively fix this and that they are simply waiting until the general starts (the Obamamessiah is coronated) to begin their campaign to reach these voters.  One hopes.  Please.

My concern is the fundraising gap between the GOP and Dems.  It is difficult to get out a message when people are not contributing funds and McCain is an extremely weak candidate in that even if he can eventually get to these voters, many folks that would otherwise contribute funds are only going to begrudgingly vote for McCain, not send checks to a candidate that they do not like.

McCain’s campaign depends on his ability to compare and contrast his views to Obama’s and in that sense, it is a moderate Republican versus a far left Liberal.  The blueprint for the Dem takeover of Congress is Moderate Democrat versus weak Republican candidate tainted by scandal (either their own or in general by Republican scandals).  McCain is immune to this attack and Obama is not the type of candidate that could win in this scenario because he is so far left.

Justin B. on June 3, 2008 at 10:54 am

BTW, signs for McCain improve everytime Wright or Michele Obama open their mouths, but the prospects for the House and Senate look bleak.  McCain does not inspire candidates to vote for Congressional candidates and even if Obama cannot win a Red State, he can bring out Dems and possibly win some districts if Republicans are not careful.

The issue is that Pelosi, Reid, and Obama can all be used in moderate districts to show that Moderate Dems are an oxymoron despite their election promises in 2006.

Justin B. on June 3, 2008 at 10:57 am

Justin B:  Just for the record, I have never believed that John McCain is a weak candidate. I do believe he has been weakened by relentless criticism and attack from the right.

I think - and hope - that huge numbers of independents and disenchanted democrats will decide that McCain is a far better choice than Obama.

And, Yes!  You are exactly right. McCain and the GOP may suffer a financial disadvantage because of the atmosphere of distrust and disunity which is fragmenting our party.


"Here lies, in honored glory, an American soldier, known but to God.”

“As a conservative, I will not be overly enthusiastic about voting for John McCain on November 4 - but I will be sprinting to the polling place to do so!”
Matthew May, conservative commentator, The American Spectator

pparets on June 3, 2008 at 11:00 am

He staked out positions that are far too liberal for most Republicans.  It significantly weakened him from the right.  And in 2000 some of his conduct after the election and his bitterness towards GWB also hurt him.

It is not the relentless criticism from the right that is the problem, it was McCain’s own voting record and contempt for the right that hurt him.  He does not hate the right, but he does not understand why they do not support him and his temper and temperament have allowed some of his anger to show.  He has taken a significant step in embracing free market economics, support Bush’s tax policies, and trying to repair bridges with the Christian conservatives that he loathed over South Carolina and Bush’s 2000 dirty tricks.

Don’t blame the right for not liking his positions on Global Warming, tax cuts (prior to now), and immigration.  His positions were wrong and the right has attacked his positions.  I don’t hear personal attacks against him, but plenty of attacks on his positions and statements that folks will not vote for a legitimate war hero because he supports positions they do not agree with.  I disagree with these folks and am a glass is 90% full kind of guy.  I support 90% of what McCain does.  I dislike some of the other 10%, but those 10% of positions that McCain is wrong on, Obama is a 1000x worse on. 

But Romney isn’t the candidate.  Fred isn’t.  And so some of the discontent is that these candidates are much more appealing to conservatives and it was McCain and his liberal and independent voters in the primaries that represent our party.

Justin B. on June 3, 2008 at 12:08 pm

Well said, Justin B!  I do not blame those conservatives who harbor bitter feelings about McCain. I just believe that we are in an election battle of historic proportions and, whether we like it or not, John McCain is the candidate of the GOP and a far better choice than either dem.

The time for conservatives to stop McCain was during the primaries.  They did not and now we must move on.


"Here lies, in honored glory, an American soldier, known but to God.”

“As a conservative, I will not be overly enthusiastic about voting for John McCain on November 4 - but I will be sprinting to the polling place to do so!”
Matthew May, conservative commentator, The American Spectator

pparets on June 3, 2008 at 12:17 pm

I refuse to weep for the Republican party, all their fatal wounds are self-inflicted. Conservatism was a winner with voters when Republicans represented Conservative ideals, it’s when the “Conservatives” veered to the left that people started saying no thanks. It’s easy to be on the left, populism isn’t leadership - it’s pandering (triangulation), standing up and doing what’s right for the country and it’s growth is the hard part, but that’s where leaders come in. Taking from one to give to another isn’t difficult, this whole bullshit about “we’re all in this together” is anathema to the founding ideals of this country and breeds one lazy ass citizenry. Ceding more and more power incrementally to the government through ruses like cap and trade is going to be our end eventually, and likely to happen sooner rather than later. That’s one of the reasons McCain just makes my head spin. He’s only better to me if he picks a VP that represents some future leadership for sustaining this country, otherwise I may be one of those cats staying home. Obama is a racist, America-hating dumbass who has shown time and time again that his judgement is for crap, but maybe we deserve him if these are the best we can do.

We’re at the mercy of career politicians who feed their egos at the big-government trough. God help us all.


""That’s the problem with you lefties, you’re not willing to get your hands dirty. I’d suggest you roll up your sleeves.”

-Jack Bauer

Hoss on June 3, 2008 at 12:26 pm

His positions were wrong and the right has attacked his positions.  I don’t hear personal attacks against him, but plenty of attacks on his positions and statements that folks will not vote for a legitimate war hero because he supports positions they do not agree with.

Justin,

Part of John McCain’s problem is that his temperment does not allow him to recognize the distinction.  All too often he sees policy disputation as a personal affront.  He could learn from the younger George W. Bush in this regard.

On the other hand, having a Commander-in-Chief who “takes it personal” during wartime is not an altogether bad thing… especially when his domestic opponents are hellbent on losing.


“Poverty of goods is easily cured; poverty of the mind is irreparable.”

Bat One on June 3, 2008 at 12:27 pm

So, Hoss:  If McCain or Obama is going to occupy the White House for the next 4 - 8 years - and one of them IS - which one do you want it to be?


"Here lies, in honored glory, an American soldier, known but to God.”

“As a conservative, I will not be overly enthusiastic about voting for John McCain on November 4 - but I will be sprinting to the polling place to do so!”
Matthew May, conservative commentator, The American Spectator

pparets on June 3, 2008 at 12:32 pm

Hoss,

Perhaps you should consider doing what you can to support the principles themselves, rather than the party that obviously abandoned them.

Do we “deserve” two or even three more Ruth Bader-Ginsburgs on the Court?  Or more David Souters instead of another Sam Alito or John Roberts?  Do we “deserve” the consequences of higher taxes and more government regulation stifling our economic growth and progress?  And lastly, do we “deserve” the consequences of abandoning the fight in Iraq and against Islamist terrorism in general?

I am not enamored of a John McCain presidency either.  But the thought of an inexperienced, unaccomplished, misguided rookie answering to ACORN, MoveOn.org, “black liberation” theologians and other assorted anti-American radicals who would destroy our economic and personal liberties makes my skin crawl.

Those of us on/in the Right have been far more truthful, respectful, and pertinent in our criticisms of Mr. Bush than have the banshees of the Left.  We can continue to do so under President McCain.  The alternative is disaster for our country.


“Poverty of goods is easily cured; poverty of the mind is irreparable.”

Bat One on June 3, 2008 at 12:50 pm

BatOne:

The alternative is disaster for our country

You are exactly right!  Four to eight years of a Alinsky socialist Barack Obama - armed with a huge majority in congress - is unthinkable!!  McCain’s spotty record aside, no reasonable person could conclude otherwise.

Equally scary to me is the “let the whole place crash and burn” mind-set.


"Here lies, in honored glory, an American soldier, known but to God.”

“As a conservative, I will not be overly enthusiastic about voting for John McCain on November 4 - but I will be sprinting to the polling place to do so!”
Matthew May, conservative commentator, The American Spectator

pparets on June 3, 2008 at 01:03 pm

Do we “deserve” two or even three more Ruth Bader-Ginsburgs on the Court?  Or more David Souters instead of another Sam Alito or John Roberts?  Do we “deserve” the consequences of higher taxes and more government regulation stifling our economic growth and progress?  And lastly, do we “deserve” the consequences of abandoning the fight in Iraq and against Islamist terrorism in general?

Indeed.

I am not sure why folks talk about the Republican Party not staying true to its conservative roots, like Conservatism is a monolithic entity.  Within the Republican Party, there is an extensive segment that are Christian Conservatives that want to proselytize and stop abortion, but by and large could give two shits less about tax policy.  These tend to be poor to middle income Christians that own guns and vote Republican.  Obama hits the nail on the head that Dems need to structure their message to these folks.  These are Christian Moderates, conservative on values, but not beholden to anyone on economic issues.  These folks vote Huckabee.  They also tend to support McCain.  They make small dollar contributions to their preferred candidate, but McCain offers little religious appeal which limits their support.

Then there are upper middle class and wealthy Conservatives.  These folks are by and large less concerned about Abortion than about Federalism.  Many of ***US*** are the more thinking and intellectual part of the party.  We advocate free market economics, free trade, lower taxes, Federalism, and contribute to Cato or Heritage.  These folks are the folks that McCain fucked with McCain-Feingold.  We cannot contribute to our preferred candidates due to the caps.  He also doesn’t support many of the economic policies we favor and he wants Cap and Trade communism.  Largely, we supported Romney.

Then there are the radical Conservatives.  They support Ron Paul or occasionally cross over and vote Libertarian.  I know some of these folks and they like to think they are the intellectual conscience of the party (and many are like Cato), but most of them are gun nuts or pro-pot folks.  These people supported Ron Paul.

McCain doesn’t need to triangulate with Liberals and Independents.  He needs to triangulate with them as well as our own internal factions.  But he is in better position than the Libs because they have to deal with Unions, the ACLU, environmentalists, Black Liberation folks like Wright, elitist leftists, and the uberwealthy supporters like the Kennedy’s, Soros, and Hollywood.

Justin B. on June 3, 2008 at 01:07 pm

Or more David Souters instead of another Sam Alito or John Roberts?  Do we “deserve” the consequences of higher taxes and more government regulation stifling our economic growth and progress?

Bat1, I held my nose voting for Bush the first time.  It was more a vote against Gore (heh, catch the pun?) For his many faults including increased spending, I’d vote for him again.  I was pleasantly surprised and hope McCain turns out the same because it’s a similar situation to the 2000 election but worse (Gore was anti-terrorist back then.)

FlyOnTheWall on June 4, 2008 at 07:01 am
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