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Tuesday, July 15, 2008

Global Economic Depression On Its Way?

Global economy facing ‘perfect storm’ as inflation hits 16-year high - and the worst is yet to come
Panic gripped the City and Wall Street as the global economy drifted towards ‘a perfect storm’, adding to pressure on Gordon Brown a week before a crucial by-election.

The shock rise in inflation to 3.8 per cent in [Britain] means it has more than doubled since Labour came to power in May 1997. In a double blow for cash-strapped families, economists warned the cost of living will keep on rising and interest rates will not come down.


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No respite from rising energy and food prices

Bank of England policymaker Andrew Sentance warned yesterday there will be no respite from the pain of rising energy and food prices.

He said: ‘Inflation is being pushed up in the short term, and it will take time to get it back under control.

‘That will require a squeeze on spending and incomes in the UK and other economies, with consequences for economic growth and employment in the short term.’

In a speech in Windsor, he said the good times are over for Britain as the country enters a ‘significant’ slowdown in economic growth.

He said: ‘In the face of the current oil and commodity price pressures, we cannot expect to sustain the benign world of steady growth and consistently low inflation that has characterised the last decade and a half across many developed economies, including the UK.’

If public expectations for rising prices get out of control, an even sharper downturn may be needed, he added


Yes, this comes from the British Media, but I am asking our resident economists at SAB if they see the global economy in this kind of crisis and if so, could it mean a global depression in the near future.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1035373/Global-economy-facing-perfect-storm-inflation-hits-16-year-high--worst-come.html

Comments

In the long run, core inflation is caused by the maldistribution of capital by taxation; therefore, it will surface in high-tax socialist countries first.  If the US stays free of socialism, our economy will only grow stronger, as we buy other countries’ stuff, and as they need us to have any sort of economic growth.  The real solution to worldwide economic prosperity is contained in the four freedoms:

Personal freedom
Economic freedom
Religious freedom
Political freedom

Nothing else will do.  Those countries that continue to enslave their people with high taxes will eventually fall, as they should.


Save America; boycott the MSM.

robert108 on July 15, 2008 at 04:39 pm

Robert108: I would have been very disappointed had you not offered a great overview of this matter. Still, my question remains: Does it now look possible that the world could fall into a global depression in the next few years?


No matter the age or state of health, for a military man it is always glorious to tilt at windmills, rescue a fair Dulcinea and be a gallant knight in armor in a glorious cause.

Neiman on July 15, 2008 at 04:45 pm

Does it now look possible that the world could fall into a global depression in the next few
years?

Anything is possible, especially if leftie nutbags continue to screw with our markets, but I don’t regard it as very probable.  What I see is an economy that is so strong that it bounced back from the twin blows of the Clinton recession and the Clinton-enabled 9/11 debacle, on the basis of a fairly modest tax rate cut, and which continues to grow, despite years of lying about the economy by the Dems/MSM about how “bad” it is.  Now, even after a fairly small burp in the real estate market, followed by a shitstorm of lies from the Dems/MSM, this economy is still growing, even though at a slow rate.  That’s a real tribute to free people making free choices, IMO.
Imagine how strong we would be if the MSM told the truth all this time.
Of course, the lefties would be accusing us of “economic imperialism"…


Save America; boycott the MSM.

robert108 on July 15, 2008 at 04:54 pm

Robert108: Thanks!


No matter the age or state of health, for a military man it is always glorious to tilt at windmills, rescue a fair Dulcinea and be a gallant knight in armor in a glorious cause.

Neiman on July 15, 2008 at 04:59 pm

What the hell is a ‘global depression’?  People losing all their money in bank failures? People in bread lines on the street?  How likely is that to happen today?  Not very, I think.

All this stupid depression talk is making depressed.


You don’t have to be a moron to be a liberal Democrat but it sure helps.

docdave on July 15, 2008 at 05:03 pm

r108’s answer should tell you he has no clue and has his head in the anticommunist sand. at least he got in a chance to rant about socialists, clinton, the MSM.

check the inflation rates in the socialist countries. they aren’t as bad as ours.

check dubai. 10 or 11% inflation. how high are the taxes in dubai r108?

r108 is again, all sound and fury signifying nothing.

don’t get your info from him Neiman, lest you fall into the le brea tar pit with the other dinosaur anticommunists.

again, i’m no economist, but i know a couple figures from countries around the world, enough to know this is false

it will surface in high-tax socialist countries first

many socialist countries specifically adjust their interest rates to combat inflation, not to encourage growth, as we do… unless we are in emergency mode.


Yun Chu said, “You must strictly not express in words what is very significant. Both dragon and snake are killed in one blow.”

Sparkie Arbuckle on July 15, 2008 at 06:19 pm

again, i’m no economist…

Obviously.


Save America; boycott the MSM.

robert108 on July 15, 2008 at 07:30 pm

many socialist countries specifically adjust their interest rates to combat inflation, not to encourage growth, as we do…

Wrong again, Sparkie!  We have been using interest rates to control inflation in both the Clinton and Bush administrations.  Another thing you know nothing about.
Since the prime interest rate is the price of money in a system, we are doing what is called the “weak dollar policy”.  It is essentially a sop to the unions, who want our money relatively cheap so that they can export a lot of their crappy goods, and the weak dollar disguises their inefficiency.
We are coming to the end of that road, because it is killing savings and leading to riskier investments to get a good rate of return.  Lower tax rates, especially on investment income, combined with market interest rates, will restore the core of our economy quite well.  The long term stuff, like individual mortgages, will go back to their rightful place in the economy, and we can keep our capital in more productive areas.  I know this is way over your head, Sparkie.


Save America; boycott the MSM.

robert108 on July 15, 2008 at 07:36 pm
Avatar for Nunez

robert108,

There hasn’t been time I’ve come on this website and you WEREN’T in the Recent Comments list. You have a lot of time on your hands.

Clinton recession

Provide a logical and factual argument explantation.

Nunez on July 15, 2008 at 07:40 pm

r108
do you disagree that dubai is experiencing more inflation that countries that levy higher taxes?

i missed that part?


Yun Chu said, “You must strictly not express in words what is very significant. Both dragon and snake are killed in one blow.”

Sparkie Arbuckle on July 15, 2008 at 07:54 pm
Avatar for Nunez

Sparkie,

Robert will ignore when he is consistently found to be lying, bullshitting or ranting about matters he knows nothing about. Or D) All of the Above.

Nunez on July 15, 2008 at 08:13 pm
Avatar for Nunez

robert108 responses when he’s exposed:

1) “You’re a liar”
2) “Provide a factual and logical argument.”
3) “You leftie Marxist”
4) *Self-talk*, “I’ll ignore that!”
5) Long rant (Change topic)
6) Argument against the Man/Source
7) Arguing Definitions
8) Argumentum ad logicam (argument to logic)
9) Argumentum ad nauseam (argument to the point of disgust; i.e., by repetition)

Nunez on July 15, 2008 at 08:19 pm

Nunez: You’re a weird little stalker groupie; it’s kinda creepy.  Good luck in life.


Save America; boycott the MSM.

robert108 on July 15, 2008 at 08:22 pm

r108
do you disagree that dubai is experiencing more inflation that countries that levy higher taxes?

Two things, sonny; it’s not the only factor, and centrally controlled economies don’t have accurate stats.  More stuff you don’t know.


Save America; boycott the MSM.

robert108 on July 15, 2008 at 08:26 pm
Avatar for Nunez

robert108,

Nunez: You’re a weird little stalker groupie; it’s kinda creepy.  Good luck in life.

Stalker? You post in every blog entry trying to prove that you’re intelligent.

I’d say ‘Good luck in life’ if you had one outside of this blog.

Get off the computer. Go outside!

Nunez on July 15, 2008 at 09:01 pm

WTF 108, 113 comments in 2 days?!

What a life you don’t have!


Excuse me, you were saying?


realitybasedbob's signature
realitybasedbob on July 15, 2008 at 09:07 pm

WTF 108, 113 comments in 2 days?!

What a life you don’t have!

One could say the same thing about someone who bothered to count that.

Ken McCracken on July 15, 2008 at 09:12 pm

Ken:
SNAP!

r108
bad answer. of course there are other made up reasons that your made up reasons can be verified.
canada: 3-4% inflation
england: 3.8% inflation
dubai: 10-11% inflation
Yemen: 18% inflation


Yun Chu said, “You must strictly not express in words what is very significant. Both dragon and snake are killed in one blow.”

Sparkie Arbuckle on July 15, 2008 at 09:29 pm

One could say the same thing about someone who bothered to count that.

Yeah; I haven’t had groupies since I was in the music business.  They were girls, though.  These groupies are creepy.


Save America; boycott the MSM.

robert108 on July 15, 2008 at 09:54 pm

Damn . . . groupies would be nice.

Minions would be even nicer.

I could do a lot of damage with minions.

Ken McCracken on July 15, 2008 at 10:21 pm

Neiman: One more thing: inflation is only a problem if you can’t get a better return on your money than the rate of inflation.  It got turned into a buzzword mostly during Carter.  In fact, the CPI doubled from 1947-1951, but nobody noticed, because economic growth was so much better.  Before some leftie moron tries to say I’m saying it’s a good thing; it isn’t, but stagnation is far worse.  Again, the inflation that is caused by excessive taxation is a bad thing.


Save America; boycott the MSM.

robert108 on July 15, 2008 at 10:22 pm

Ken: These creepy little trolls aren’t so nice; they’re just obsessed.  The real ones are pretty good, though.


Save America; boycott the MSM.

robert108 on July 15, 2008 at 11:09 pm
Avatar for Nunez

robert108,

Yeah; I haven’t had groupies since I was in the music business.  They were girls, though.  These groupies are creepy.

Your need for acceptance is revolting.

Nunez on July 16, 2008 at 09:12 am
Avatar for Nunez

robert108,

In fact, the CPI doubled from 1947-1951, but nobody noticed, because economic growth was so much better.

Nobody noticed because it didn’t double.

1947-01-01 21.500
1948-01-01 23.700
1949-01-01 24.000
1950-01-01 23.500
1951-01-01 25.400
1952-01-01 26.500
1952-12-01 26.700

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/data/CPIAUCSL.txt

Nunez on July 16, 2008 at 09:22 am

I am bookmarking this thread to refer to in the future.

r108 at his best (sic). BTw did you, r108, know that doubled means a 100% increase and not just 20%? its something we learn in preschool math class.

Neiman. You shouldn’t thank people who lie to you and give you false reassurances.


Yun Chu said, “You must strictly not express in words what is very significant. Both dragon and snake are killed in one blow.”

Sparkie Arbuckle on July 16, 2008 at 10:37 am

Nice bullshit, boys, but the real comparison is with 1945-1946.  Nice lying, though.


Save America; boycott the MSM.

robert108 on July 16, 2008 at 10:45 am

Your need for acceptance is revolting.

You’re the one chasing me around this blog, trying to get my attention with juvenile insults.  I have absolutely no need or desire for acceptance from the likes of you.


Save America; boycott the MSM.

robert108 on July 16, 2008 at 10:47 am

Yeah; I haven’t had groupies since I was in the music business.

Being a roadie for Sha Na Na at Woodstock does not qualify as being in the music business, 108.


Excuse me, you were saying?


realitybasedbob's signature
realitybasedbob on July 16, 2008 at 10:57 am

rbb lies again, as usual.

Sparkie: It is a matter of economic history that Truman exercised no fiscal or monetary policy from 1947-1951, in order to allow the govt to repay War Bonds at what amounted to half their face value.  To ‘splain it to you: During the war(1941-1945), wage and price controls were in place, along with rationing, in order for us to be able to defeat the Axis powers.  Most Americans, feeling their patriotic duty, purchased War Bonds with their savings, thus transferring money to the govt to aid in it’s Constitutional duty to provide national defense.  These bonds were purchased with the money at its deflated value, caused by FDR’s extended Depression.  After the war, when pent-up consumer demand and the increased productive capacity from the war effort produced an economic boom, prices were allowed to increase to approximately double what they were during the War, resulting in inflation, to say the least.  The purpose of this was to redeem the War Bonds with cheaper money, but the population didn’t really care, because their assets were increasing even faster, which was my original point.
Again, you demonstrate your abysmal ignorance of economics.


Save America; boycott the MSM.

robert108 on July 16, 2008 at 11:23 am

rbb: Actually, I made a mistake: you told two lies, not just one.  Aside from talking to them, I have never had any business relationship with Sha Na Na, and anyone working for any group is in the music business.
You can’t seem to get anything right…


Save America; boycott the MSM.

robert108 on July 16, 2008 at 11:33 am

I never said you did.


Excuse me, you were saying?


realitybasedbob's signature
realitybasedbob on July 16, 2008 at 11:37 am

Nunez: Until you chose to go after Robert108, this was a civil and quite educational discussion. I think you need to look at your own motives more carefully.


No matter the age or state of health, for a military man it is always glorious to tilt at windmills, rescue a fair Dulcinea and be a gallant knight in armor in a glorious cause.

Neiman on July 16, 2008 at 11:52 am
Avatar for Nunez

Neiman,

My first post on this thread was about the assertion that robert108 has made of multiple times of a ‘Clinton recession’ unable to back up his allegation before and now on this thread. As far as a ‘civil and quite educational discussion’ I assume the people involved would be able to back up their statements.

Nunez on July 16, 2008 at 01:20 pm

Nunez: You have had plenty of time to disprove my statement about the Clinton recession, and have yet to do so.  I made a statement, and you haven’t disproved it; it’s not up to me to do your work for you.


Save America; boycott the MSM.

robert108 on July 16, 2008 at 02:00 pm
Avatar for Nunez

robert108: You make me laugh. If you could supply a factual and logical argument supporting your fictitious ‘Clinton recession’ then you would. And we all know you can’t.

Nunez on July 16, 2008 at 02:29 pm
Avatar for chris

Robert, you talk about the “Clinton” recession like it’s a fact.  However, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research, the recession started in March of 2001, under Bush’s watch:

http://www.nber.org/cycles/recessions.html

chris on July 16, 2008 at 02:56 pm

Nunez: Still can’t do it, eh?

chris: Bush’s first budget was passed Oct 2001, so the recession you listed was under the last Clinton budget.
I hope you are just ignorant, rather than trying to propagandize.  Thanks for confirming what is a well-known fact, to everyone but Nunez.


Save America; boycott the MSM.

robert108 on July 16, 2008 at 03:28 pm
Avatar for Dog pet products

Ben Stein said inflation was due to the large increase in Oil.  He also said oil prices are now going down, so it won’t spike like that in the future.  I think Iran would have to be attacked before they go up again.

Dog pet products on July 16, 2008 at 04:31 pm

I think Iran would have to be attacked before they go up again.

Only until they are defeated, then futures prices will go way down.
An increase in the price of one commodity doesn’t cause inflation, btw.


Save America; boycott the MSM.

robert108 on July 16, 2008 at 04:39 pm
Avatar for Nunez

robert108: I know after I show you this information you won’t change your opinion, because it takes more courage to change one’s opinion than to stick to it.

“Men stumble over the truth from time to time, but most pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing happened.” ~Winston Churchill

Now, I know that you hate Democrats, especially the Clintons, but imagine if this was the Bush Administration or a republican administration and how much you would support it.

In 1992, 10 million Americans were unemployed, the country faced record deficits, and poverty and welfare rolls were growing. Family incomes were losing ground to inflation and jobs were being created at the slowest rate since the Great Depression.

-Strong Economic Growth: Averaged 4.0 percent during Clinton years compared to average growth of 2.8 percent during Reagan-Bush years. The economy grew for 116 consecutive months, the most in history.

-Jobs: Created more than 22.5 million jobs in less than eight years--most jobs ever created under a single administration, and more than were created in the previous 12 years. 92% were in the private sector.

-Income: Real median family income increased from $42,612 in 1993 to $48,950 in 1999 (in 1999 dollars).

-Unemployment: Lowest Levels in more than 30 years. Down 6.9 percent in 1993 to just 4.0 percent in November 2000. Unemployment rate below 5% for 40 consecutive months.

-Inflation: Lowest inflation since the 1960s, since the Kennedy Administration, averaging 2.5 percent and down from 4.7 percent during the previous administration.

-Homeownership: Highest homeownership on record, 67.7 for the third quarter in 2000.

-Poverty: 7 million fewer Americans living in poverty. Declined 15.1 percent in 1993 to 11.8 percent in 1999, the largest six-year drop in poverty in nearly 30 years.

-Largest Surplus Ever

-Lower Federal Government Spending: Cut from 22.2 percent in 1992 to 18 percent in 2000, lowest level since 1966.

Nunez on July 16, 2008 at 06:30 pm

Largest Surplus Ever

A fantasy ten-year projection, based on gutting both military and intel capabilities, which enabled 9/11.  I leave the hating to you; I just don’t want another incompetent carouser in the Oval Office like Clinton.  I have more respect for my country than that.

Comparing the Reagan years and the W Bush years together is intellectually dishonest, and is also economically irrelevant.
Clinton still left this country in a recession after he had left office; the foundation of it was laid(pun intended) by his high taxes and the dot-com bubble, which hit hard in the last quarter of his last budget.
I don’t expect you to respond to facts, Nunez.


Save America; boycott the MSM.

robert108 on July 16, 2008 at 09:21 pm
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