FIS Court Activity 2006 Update
Back in December of 2005, as the first round of hysteria about the NSA’s terrorist surveillance program was in full force, I noted something odd about the way the activities of the FIS Court were being reported. This inspired me to go back to the raw data in an article on Bayosphere.
At the time I noted some interesting trends which seemed to indicate that:
The recent resignation of Judge Robertson and the immediately subsequent arrangement of the Bush Administration to brief the FISA Court on the full extent of the NSA’s current activities thus suggests (but does not prove) that the statistical anomaly (and very possibly the leak) was indeed Robertson.
I updated with the 2005 Data here on Say Anything in April of 2006.
I now present the 2006 figures for FIS court activity (in addition to the record since inception for the court):
Raw Data:
FISA Court Applications (from this source or as listed)
Year Apps Rej Changed
1979 199 0 0
1980 319 0 0
1981 431 0 0
1982 473 0 0
1983 549 0 0
1984 635 0 0
1985 587 0 0
1986 573 0 0
1987 512 0 0
1988 534 0 0
1989 546 0 0
1990 595 0 0
1991 593 0 0
1992 484 0 0
1993 509 0 0
1994 576 0 0
1995 697 0 0
1996 839 0 0
1997 749 0 0
1998 796 0 0 (source)
1999 886 0 0 (source)
2000 1005 0 1 (source)
2001 932 0 4 (source)
2002 1228 0/2(1) 0 (source)
2003 1727 4 79 (source)
2004 1758 0 94 (source)
2005 2074 0 61 (source)
2006 2176 0/1(2) 73 (source)
New Reporting for 2005
Records Requests National Security Letters
Apps rej ch Persons Apps rej ch
155 0 2 3051 9245 0 0
2006 data not yet available…
(1) Two were initially denied by the FISA court and subsequently reversed on appeal to the FISA Court of Review.
(2) One denied in part.
Note the rate of both rejections and changes was 0 between inception and 1999.
2000 yields the first changes (which could be anomalous and at any rate is statistically insignificant).
2001 finds 4 modifications out of 932 applications (0.43%), which again could be anomalous.
2002 shows 2 outright rejections (reversed on appeal to the FISA Court of Review, but they would have been a 0.16% rate for the year and 0.01% cumulative rate) and no Changes.
2003 shows 4 outright rejections (0.23% for that year, 0.02% cumulative) and 79 Changes (4.57% for the year, 0.47 Cumulative)
2004 shows no rejections and 94 (5.35% for that year, 0.50 Cumulative) Changes.
2005 shows no rejections (though two were withdrawn by the government, and one of those two was subsequently re-submitted and approved) and 61 Changes (2.9% for that year, )
2006 shows no rejections (1 partial) and 73 changes (3.4% for the year)
Note that all rejections and 173 (out of 311, or 55.63% to date, 72.68% as of the last year of Judge Robertson’s service on the court) fall during the tenure of Judge Robertson.
This statistical evidence (the near halving of the rate of changes for 2005) tends to reinforce my suspicion that the resignation of Judge Robertson and the immediately subsequent arrangement of the Bush Administration to brief the FIS Court on the full extent of the NSA’s terrorist surveillance activities were indeed related, and it further strongly suggests (but does not prove) that the statistical anomaly (and very possibly the leak) was indeed Robertson.
Conclusions
It seems clear that the Executive is keeping the Courts and Congress apprised of their surveillance activities. It also seems apparent that the FIS Court is being used as intended: to provide legal review and authorization of surveillance where criminal prosecution is viewed as the appropriate and likely end state.
Bullwinkle
Move_Zig
Gman
robert108