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Monday, April 28, 2008

Feed Your Prius, Starve A Peasant

MARK STEYN

Last week, Time magazine featured on its cover the iconic photograph of U.S. Marines raising the flag on Iwo Jima. But with one difference: The flag has been replaced by a tree. The managing editor of Time, Rick Stengel, was very pleased with the lads in graphics for cooking up this cute image and was all over the TV sofas, talking up this ingenious visual shorthand for what he regards as the greatest challenge facing mankind: “How To Win The War On Global Warming.”

Where to begin? For the past 10 years, we all have, in fact, been not warming but slightly cooling, which is why the ecowarriors have adopted the all-purpose bogeyman of “climate change.” But let’s take it that the editors of Time are referring not to the century we live in but the previous one, when there was a measurable rise of temperature of approximately 1 degree. That’s the “war”: 1 degree.

If the tree-raising is Iwo Jima, a 1-degree increase isn’t exactly Pearl Harbor. But Gen. Stengel wants us to engage in pre-emptive war. The editors of Time would be the first to deplore such saber-rattling applied to, say, Iran’s nuclear program, but it has become the habit of progressive opinion to appropriate the language of war for everything but actual war.

[...]

And which obscure island has it been planted on? In Haiti, Prime Minister Jacques Edouard Alexis was removed from office April 12. Insofar as history will recall him at all, he may have the distinction of being the first head of government to fall victim to “global warming” – or, at any rate, the “war on global warming” that Time magazine is gung-ho for. At least five people have been killed in food riots in Port-au-Prince. Prices have risen 40 percent since last summer and, as columnist Deroy Murdock reported, some citizens are now subsisting on biscuits made from salt, vegetable oil and (mmmm) dirt. Dirt cookies: Nutritious, tasty and affordable? Well, one out of three ain’t bad.

Unlike “global warming,” food rioting is a planetwide phenomenon, from Indonesia to Pakistan to Ivory Coast to the tortilla rampages in Mexico and even pasta protests in Italy.

So what happened?

Well, Western governments listened to the ecowarriors and introduced some of the “wartime measures” they’ve been urging. The EU decreed that 5.75 percent of petrol and diesel must come from “biofuels” by 2010, rising to 10 percent by 2020. The United States added to its 51 cent-per-gallon ethanol subsidy by mandating a fivefold increase in “biofuels” production by 2022.

The result is that big government accomplished at a stroke what the free market could never have done: They turned the food supply into a subsidiary of the energy industry. When you divert 28 percent of U.S. grain into fuel production, and when you artificially make its value as fuel higher than its value as food, why be surprised that you’ve suddenly got less to eat? Or, to be more precise, it’s not “you” who’s got less to eat but those starving peasants in distant lands you claim to care so much about.

Heigh-ho. In the greater scheme of things, a few dead natives keeled over with distended bellies is a small price to pay for saving the planet, right? Except that turning food into fuel does nothing for the planet in the first place. That tree the U.S. Marines are raising on Iwo Jima was most-likely cut down to make way for an ethanol-producing corn field: Researchers at Princeton calculate that, to date, the “carbon debt” created by the biofuels arboricide will take 167 years to reverse.

The biofuels debacle is global warm-mongering in a nutshell: The first victims of poseur environmentalism will always be developing countries. In order for you to put biofuel in your Prius and feel good about yourself for no reason, real actual people in faraway places have to starve to death. On April 15, the Independent, the impeccably progressive British newspaper, editorialized:

“The production of biofuel is devastating huge swaths of the world’s environment. So why on Earth is the government forcing us to use more of it?”

You want the short answer? Because the government made the mistake of listening to fellows like you. Here’s the self-same Independent in November 2005:

“At last, some refreshing signs of intelligent thinking on climate change are coming out of Whitehall. The Environment minister, Elliot Morley, reveals today in an interview with this newspaper that the Government is drawing up plans to impose a ‘biofuel obligation’ on oil companies ... . This has the potential to be the biggest green innovation in the British petrol market since the introduction of unleaded petrol.”

Etc. It’s not the environmental movement’s chickenfeedhawks who’ll have to reap what they demand must be sown, but we should be in no doubt about where to place the blame – on the bullying activists and their media cheerleaders and weather-vane politicians who insist that the “science” is “settled” and that those who question whether there’s any crisis are (in the designation of the strikingly nonemaciated Al Gore) “denialists.”

All three presidential candidates have drunk the environmental kool-ethanol and are committed to Big Government solutions. But, as the Independent’s whiplash-inducing U-turn confirms, the eco-scolds are under no such obligation to consistency. Finger-in-the-wind politicians shouldn’t be surprised to find that gentle breeze is from the media wind turbine, and it’s just sliced your finger off.

Whether there’s very slight global cooling or very slight global warming, there’s no need for a “war” on either, no rationale for loosing a plague of eco-locusts on the food supply. So why be surprised that totalitarian solutions to mythical problems wind up causing real devastation? As for Time’s tree, by all means put it up: It helps block out the view of starving peasants on the far horizon.

Mark Steyn is always a joy to read; he speaks truth to the power of the global warmingist conspiracy.

Comments

How exactly is that diversion of 28% of feed corn into ethanol creating the weather-related crop losses in rice and wheat in Australia, Argentina, Canada, China, the United States and other nations?

What is this penchant for humans to try and get a “one size fits all” explanation to a problem that is in this case multifaceted, especially when this explanation seems to explain very little?

Carrick on April 28, 2008 at 05:31 am

How exactly is that diversion of 28% of feed corn into ethanol creating the weather-related crop losses in rice and wheat in Australia, Argentina, Canada, China, the United States and other nations?

It’s not, and Steyn is making no such claim, as you well should know.  The crop failures would always be a problem, but the diversion of not only the food itself, but the land and capital resources into this boondoggle called “alternative fuel” is obviously exacerbating the problem.  How would you fare if someone took away 28% of your income?  Would that make a difference to you?
Not an exact analogy, but taking away 28% of anything isn’t exactly an improvement, is it?


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robert108 on April 28, 2008 at 06:08 am
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Food is a global market, Carrick, and diverting 28% of a staple crop from the food market to fuel production is going to have a global impact on all crops.

The problem is multifaceted, though why you refuse to recognize this one significant facet is beyond me.


When the people fear their government, there is tyranny; when the government fears the people, there is liberty.

-- Thomas Jefferson

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Rob on April 28, 2008 at 06:32 am

Furthermore, Steyn is exactly right, in that this “food crisis” won’t affect the wealthy nations anywhere near as much as the poor nations.  A lot of those people were on the edge of starvation before this ethanol boondoggle took hold.


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robert108 on April 28, 2008 at 06:38 am

So if he’s not trying to make the claim that the food shortages are caused by diversion of feed corn to ethanol, why does he have this in his commentary:

Unlike “global warming,” food rioting is a planetwide phenomenon, from Indonesia to Pakistan to Ivory Coast to the tortilla rampages in Mexico and even pasta protests in Italy.

So what happened?

Well, Western governments listened to the ecowarriors and introduced some of the “wartime measures” they’ve been urging. The EU decreed that 5.75 percent of petrol and diesel must come from “biofuels” by 2010, rising to 10 percent by 2020. The United States added to its 51 cent-per-gallon ethanol subsidy by mandating a fivefold increase in “biofuels” production by 2022.

”So what happened”?  Clearly he’s suggesting that biofuel production is the culprit here.  So, know I don’t “know that he’s making no such claim”.  Quite obviously he is.

Clearly there is an effect on the market from using corn for ethanol (increased cost of corn and grain-fed beef are two examples).  And if we went to 100% of our fuel from corn kernels, it would have terrible effects on food and environment.

But IMHO it just hasn’t had that broader impact on the market or the environment as of yet.  As to land usage, we have excess capacity that is being utilized now to grow more crops for food (to match increased world demand) as well as for biofuels.  Some 8% of our arable lands are currently fallow under the conservation program (an area the size of New York state).  And there is a similar glut in capital equipment, in part due to federal subsidization of loans to farmers for just that.

While I would agree with you that diverting feed corn into fuel isn’t an economically viable option—the ancillary increase in corn prices illustrates that fully—I just find it curious how people choose the “boogie man flavor of the week” to attribute all of our problems too.

It is really no different to trying and ascribe biofuels as the cause of the food shortage any more than it is to ascribe anthropogenic CO2 as the source of global climate change.  Both are by and large natural phenomena, but we as humans like (I guess) to think we can keep what we see as undesirable events from happening if we just changed X, Y, or Z.

It makes sense to explore the logical consequences of bad governmental policy.  However trying to conflate this bad policy with every naturally occurring environmental crisis that comes down the pike just borders on the ridiculous to me.

Carrick on April 28, 2008 at 06:54 am

Rob:

Food is a global market, Carrick, and diverting 28% of a staple crop from the food market to fuel production is going to have a global impact on all crops.

The problem is multifaceted, though why you refuse to recognize this one significant facet is beyond me.

US wheat production increased last summer in spite of major droughts in the US.  All most all of the increases in food prices have to do with crop failures in other countries which have not adopted the flawed US policy on biofuels, and moreover are entirely traceable to a) major crop failures that I have previously documented and b) subsequent interference with the market by various international governmental agencies.  This over-reaction in turn can be traced at least in part to fear mongering by the world press about food shortages, a fear mongering that you at least in part are buying into.

The biofuel facet is a bit player here at best, yet that’s all anybody hears about.

Carrick on April 28, 2008 at 07:03 am

Robert108:

Furthermore, Steyn is exactly right, in that this “food crisis” won’t affect the wealthy nations anywhere near as much as the poor nations.  A lot of those people were on the edge of starvation before this ethanol boondoggle took hold.

I agree partly with this, but I notice after you denied that Steyn was making “any such claim”, you now affirm that he was.  You can’t have it both ways of course.

How many countries can you list that were on the “edge of starvation” by the way “before this ethanol boondoggle took hold”?

Carrick on April 28, 2008 at 07:07 am
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The biofuel facet is a bit player here at best, yet that’s all anybody hears about.

Maybe because that’s one of the few aspects we can actually manipulate with policy.

This over-reaction in turn can be traced at least in part to fear mongering by the world press about food shortages, a fear mongering that you at least in part are buying into.

Hey, I’m just pointing out that the situation probably wouldn’t be quite as bad if we weren’t engaged in the ludicrous practice of subsidizing the hell out of fuel made from food crops and then mandating its use at the pumps.


When the people fear their government, there is tyranny; when the government fears the people, there is liberty.

-- Thomas Jefferson

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Rob on April 28, 2008 at 07:34 am
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And in that I’m exactly right.

Plus, there’s this from today’s IBD:

The International Food Policy Research Institute estimates that biofuel production accounts for between one-quarter and one-third of the recent spike in global commodity prices.

For the first time in 30 years, food riots are breaking out in many parts of the globe, including major countries such as Mexico, Pakistan and Indonesia.

The fact that America’s energy policies are creating global instability should concern the leaders of both political parties.

Restraining the dangerous effects of artificially inflated demand for ethanol should be an issue that unites both conservatives and progressives.

As a recent Time cover story pointed out, biofuel mandates increase greenhouse gasses and create incentives for global deforestation.

In the Amazon basin, huge swaths of forest are being cleared to meet the growing hunger for biofuels.

1/4 - 1/3 of the food problem.

That’s a significant facet that you seem willing to ignore, Carrick.


When the people fear their government, there is tyranny; when the government fears the people, there is liberty.

-- Thomas Jefferson

Rob’s recently listened-to songs:

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Rob on April 28, 2008 at 07:36 am

Let’s be honest here. It is the radical ecology weenies that have a strangle hold on the world right now. We are foolishly spinning ourselves into a global crisis to appease their nonsense. We spend $12 billion dollars a month on the war in Iraq. We could build three 1100 Mw nuclear power plants for that much money. If our government set aside $200 Billion dollars to build nuclear power plants we could be energy independent in a decade.
We could switch over to electric vehicles, allowing us to focus oil production into diesel for the trucking industry and other heavy machinery. Plus we would no longer need to waste food on ethanol production. On top of that we would make a significant decrease in the carbon footprint that the warming nutters prattle on about.

It’s a win – win situation. When you start paying $5 for a gallon of gas go thank a radical eco pin head.

Mickey on April 28, 2008 at 07:50 am

Who benefits?

WOOF on April 28, 2008 at 07:55 am

As to the IBD editorial, I would recommend you read the original source here, that report doesn’t say what Hutchison claims it said.  In fact, the report says that the primary causes are the increase in demand, the price of energy and weather related crop failures, pretty much exactly what I’ve asserted before.  Morever, I was unable to find any breakdown of numbers that gave a definitive amount to the effect of biofuels at all, leaving the effect entirely subjective.

Hutchinson has a number of other errant comments as well:

In the Amazon basin, huge swaths of forest are being cleared to meet the growing hunger for biofuels.

Patently false.  Bioefuels are not produced from crops grown in the Amazon, by international treaty.  This has nothing to do with why Brazilians are clearing the rain forests (one of those factors is the “use it or lose it law” which actually demands that they develop the land, or the government will “take it back").

Furthermore, the trend of farmers supplanting other grains with corn is decreasing the supply of numerous agricultural products. When the supply of those products goes down, the price inevitably goes up.

There is no such trend.  The real trend is that farmers are dropping out of the conservation program to increase their total production capacity.  As I keep pointing out, wheat production in the US increased last year in spite of wide-spread drought.  How is that a “trend” of the sort Hutchinson is describing?

Finally, I’m not ignoring biofuels, I’m just not ignoring evidence that undermines some of the assumptions these guys like to use in making their arguments.

Ironically I agree with nearly all of Hutchinson’s recommendations, so I don’t think we’re really debating over policy here. 

The lack of scalability of corn-based ethanol should be enough to convince one that we need an alternative plan.  One needn’t resort to extreme exaggeration of the impact of the US governmental biofuel policies in order to make a convincing case that changes in our policy needs to be made.

Carrick on April 28, 2008 at 08:15 am
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The lack of scalability of corn-based ethanol should be enough to convince one that we need an alternative plan.  One needn’t resort to extreme exaggeration of the impact of the US governmental biofuel policies in order to make a convincing case that changes in our policy needs to be made.

I don’t think the exaggeration is all that extreme.  I think the media, as it always does, is sensationalizing for the sake of selling copy...but the problems underlying that sensationalism are very real.

But we agree on the solution, so arguing over the motivation is likely moot.


When the people fear their government, there is tyranny; when the government fears the people, there is liberty.

-- Thomas Jefferson

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Rob on April 28, 2008 at 08:19 am

Carrick: Here’s what you wrote:

How exactly is that diversion of 28% of feed corn into ethanol creating the weather-related crop losses…

The answer is that it isn’t “creating the weather-related crop losses”, and Steyn never said it was “creating the weather-related crop losses”.  The “weather-related crop losses” are caused by the weather, I believe.  This article is about the diversion of food crops, and the resources necessary to grow them, to ethanol production.

Woof: Excellent question!  Finally!  One answer: Al Gore, with his “carbon offsets” business.  I’m sure people can use them to pay for “ethanol production”, and that lines Al’s pocket quite handsomely.  Also, the Hollywood types who practice “do as I say, not as I do”, the Prius drivers and all that.


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robert108 on April 28, 2008 at 09:45 am

We could build three 1100 Mw nuclear
power plants for that much money.

Of course, after we run away from the terrorists in Iraq, they can come here with impunity and blow up those powerplants.  Duh.


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robert108 on April 28, 2008 at 09:47 am

This over-reaction in turn can be traced at least in part to fear mongering by the world press about food shortages, a fear mongering that you at least in part are buying into.

Carrick: You conveniently forget that all this was caused by the extreme fearmongering generated by the global warming hoax.  Nice try, though.


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robert108 on April 28, 2008 at 09:49 am

Never heard of ADM (price fixer to the world)?
Riceland?

Follow the money.
Who gets the subsidies, whose market is protected?

WOOF on April 28, 2008 at 09:54 am

How many countries can you list that were on the “edge of starvation” by the way “before this ethanol boondoggle took hold”?

What I actually said:

A lot of those people were on the edge of starvation…

I was referring to “people”, not nations; in every poor nation(and there are too many to list), the poorest part of the population is pretty close to starvation without higher food prices caused(at least partly) by burning food for fuel.  It exacerbates what is already a problem, which is what I said in originally.


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robert108 on April 28, 2008 at 09:54 am

Robert108: I hope you understood my point that Steyn was clearly misattributing the cause of the current food prices/shortages to diversion to biofuels based on US energy policies.

Among the other mistakes he made was the assumption that world biofuel policy mirrors our own, which it does not, so when you discuss world-wide food shortages you can’t limit the discussion to US energy policies.

Carrick on April 28, 2008 at 09:56 am

Robert108:

Carrick: You conveniently forget that all this was caused by the extreme fearmongering generated by the global warming hoax. Nice try, though.

The US energy policy was set in response to the need to reduce our dependency on foreign oil.  Global warming isn’t a hoax, it’s real.  Human attribution is exaggerated there, just as trying to assign human attribution to the current food shortages is exaggerated here.

We humans like to blame ourselves a lot for things we have no control over.

Carrick on April 28, 2008 at 10:00 am

Global warming isn’t a hoax, it’s real.

Debatable, at best, but you are parsing too closely here.  You know damn well that the excuse of “human-caused global warming as an impending crisis” has been successfully used to ramrod all this biofuel nonsense through with subsidies, instead of letting the market decide which fuels will be used.
I think the food situation(not a crisis, at least for us) is definitely exacerbated by the global warming hysteria-induced diversion of resources to “biofuels”; even if it’s only one percent(and it’s more than that) it adds to the problem wherever the food supply is marginal, like in the poorest level of the population in the poorer countries.
Thus: “Feed your Prius, starve a peasant”.
You are quibbling over how much harm it’s causing, when it shouldn’t be happening at all.  That’s inexcusable.


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robert108 on April 28, 2008 at 10:06 am

Never heard of ADM (price fixer to the world)?
Riceland?

Predictable anti-business screed from a Marxist, but consider this: Unlike Al Gore, who profits handsomely from all the global warming bullshit scareology, ADM actually produces things people want, and was doing so long before Al came along with his propaganda.
Because of Al and his propaganda, the govt is confiscating money from us for unwanted ethanol production.
Put the blame where it really belongs, commie.


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robert108 on April 28, 2008 at 10:10 am

Robert108:

Debatable, at best

WTF?

It’s substantially warmer now than it was in 1850. It’s real, just mostly natural in origin.

You know damn well that the excuse of “human-caused global warming as an impending crisis” has been successfully used to ramrod all this biofuel nonsense through with subsidies, instead of letting the market decide which fuels will be used.

Bullshit.  It has nothing to do with the adoption of the energy policy at all.  Unlike you, Hutchinson at least is aware of what the original policy justifications were.

You are quibbling over how much harm it’s causing, when it shouldn’t be happening at all.  That’s inexcusable.

Poppycock.  If it’s doing immeasurably small harm, then “quibbling over it” isn’t quibbling, let alone inexcusable.

Carrick on April 28, 2008 at 10:12 am

ADM is the largest producer of ethanol. That what YOU want R?

WOOF on April 28, 2008 at 10:13 am

PS. Do you know the difference between business and cronyism?

WOOF on April 28, 2008 at 10:15 am

...cronyism…

Just another Marxist buzzword, with no actual meaning.

Do you know how long ADM has been in business?  Who are the “cronies”?

The truth is that ADM is the most successful producer in its field, which is why they got chosen.  Ethanol subsidies are wrong, and are an artifact of govt.  ADM didn’t originate them, Al Gore did, with his vote in 1994, as I have said several times before.
Gore votes in the plan, then profits from it; that goes beyond “cronyism”; that’s corruption.


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robert108 on April 28, 2008 at 10:24 am

Carrick: I think you are too focused on small details to see the big picture on this one.  Diverting any food resources to fuel use has to affect poorer citizens.  It’s obvious.  The only quibble here is how much, and you apparently believe there is some acceptable level of diversion.  I don’t, especially when the entire concept behind diversion is based on falsehood, whether it’s the mythical “human-caused global warming” or the entirely mistaken concept of “energy independence"(as a political tool).  It’s just plain wrong to do this, and besides, the cost/benefit doesn’t work out.
It’s just a bad deal for everyone but Al Gore, who is getting even richer off of it.


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robert108 on April 28, 2008 at 10:56 am

I think what may have been lost in this discussion is that ethanol adds addition pressure to the always tenuous food supply which is barely capable of feeding the growing human population as it is.  The prediction of Malthus may only be wrong in the timing and not the principles that the population growth will at some point exceed the growth of food production.  Taking land out of food production can only exacerbate the world problem of feeding the masses.


You don’t have to be a moron to be a liberal Democrat but it sure helps.

docdave on April 28, 2008 at 11:10 am

Taking land out of food production can only exacerbate the world problem of feeding the
masses.

Too true, dd.  It’s not just the land, but all the capital resources that are now flowing into “growing fuel” instead of growing food.  Because of the distortion from the subsidies, more resources are flowing to ethanol, and so that capital isn’t available for what might be more valuable to the economy without the distortion of subsidies.  It’s the old ripple effect.


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robert108 on April 28, 2008 at 11:31 am

The US energy policy was set in response to the need to reduce our dependency on foreign oil.  Global warming isn’t a hoax, it’s real.  Human attribution is exaggerated there, just as trying to assign human attribution to the current food shortages is exaggerated here.

There is no doubt that environmental issues were considered. Bush has made no secret of his desire to find a solution to global warming. From his desire to find a different option to Kyoto to his signing of the light bulb restrictions, Bush has made no secret of his “save the Eartherism”.While security issues are definately on his mind...so are environmental ones. Since he is open about this, it’s beyond dishonest to dismiss it as non-existant.

Since you made the snide little assertion that human influence is exaggerated (thereby meaning that it’s there), I’d like you to prove we’re responsible AT ALL.


Obama/Biden is not change. It’s more of the same.

Kenny on April 28, 2008 at 11:31 am

dd: One more thing; Malthus’ premise was wrong, in that population isn’t “increasing geometrically” in the developed world, due to many factors.  Malthus made an extrapolation based on static analysis, which is a common mistake in such commentary.
Food production is also increasing at a rate greater than “arithmetically”. Production per acre has increased incredibly since his original pronouncement.
Malthus was just another scareologist, which explains why he’s the “father” of today’s environmental extremist movement.


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robert108 on April 28, 2008 at 11:39 am

Kenny:

Since you made the snide little assertion that human influence is exaggerated (thereby meaning that it’s there), I’d like you to prove we’re responsible AT ALL.

Geez speaking of snide, can you say anything without looking like an ass?

Anyway, easy peasey.

We increased the CO2 content of the atmosphere by 25%.  The physics associated with the greenhouse gas effect of CO2 gives a temperature increase of about 0.5–1.5°C.  (Since the greenhouse gas effect is saturated, the resulting warming associated with it is roughly 2–5°C log2(C/C0) where C is the concentration of CO2 and C0 is it’s initial value.  There is some debate about the number in front of the log2 number, it has to do with effects associated with a radiatively influenced turbulent atmosphere.)

There is no scientific doubt about the validity of this effect, though there is uncertainty about its overall scale factor:  It’s been understood and demonstrated experimentally since Tyndall first wrote on it.  Standard reference: “On the Absorption and Radiation of Heat by Gases and Vapours...” Phil. Mag. 22: 169-94, 273-85 (1861).

At the risk of appearing snide (rolls eyes), the debate is over something called the water vapor feedback effect, whereby the extra CO2 creates a positive feedback loop with water vapor, amplifying the direct CO2 Unlike the direct greenhouse gas effect, there is no experimental evidence for this effect, although there is a 1-d theory associated with it.  Furthermore it is complex because of the unmodelled effects of additional cloud formation from the extra water vapor.

To the issue of biofuels as a means of moderating human-generated climate change: 

Again, I guess I’ll wear my snide badge proudly, though I will preface these comments with “they are of course based on my understanding”:

First of all biofuels are by no means carbon neutral, especially corn-based ethanol, where you maybe produce 20% less CO2 than if you were to burn gasoline.  (It would be neutral if you didn’t need a carbon-based fuel to process it, and we could ignore indirect effects such as CO2 released by the action of nitrogen fertilizers, which we can’t.) But beyond that, transportation fuels amount to only 1/6 of the total anthropogenic CO2 emissions, and gasoline combustion only 1/3 of that, so if we adopted biofuels for the entire transportation sector, and ignored indirect CO2 emissions from agriculture associated with the biofuel, we’d reduce the human generated CO2 emissions by a staggering 1/6 * 1/3 * 1/5 or by roughly 1%.

Some savings, huh?

You can suggest that Bush is stupid if you like, but there is nothing I’ve said above that isn’t already common knowledge, or that Bush wouldn’t have been aware of it.  I would suggest to any extent that Bush has mouthed any such words is more of a hat tip to the UN and an easy way to make it look like we’re doing more than we really are.  The fact that the global warming folks (some, by no means most) have recommended that we adopt biofuels as a means of combating global warming just demonstrates how technologically illiterate those fools really are.

I’ve been around the debate since the start in the early 80s, and the main scope has always been and in my opinion should continue to be self-reliance on energy.

Carrick on April 28, 2008 at 12:14 pm

Carrick: I have no doubt that your CO2 info is correct in a glass jar, but I very much doubt that even your model of global climate and atmospheric effects is anywhere near perfect.  The historical record does not demonstrate any sort of straight-line relationship between measured CO2 and global temperature.
On another subject, we get the majority of our imported oil from Canada and Mexico, with the Saudis the only significant contributor from the ME, so the “energy independence” issue is also largely a hoax, as well.
I don’t like the fact that the global warming propaganda program has been so successful, and am personally disgusted that any Republican politicians give any lip service at all to this crap, but until we can significantly refute this propaganda, we will have to live with this misallocation of resources.  Therefore, it behooves us to fight it wherever and whenever we can.


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robert108 on April 28, 2008 at 12:22 pm

Carrick: This article contains a graph of global temps plotted against CO2 percentage:

http://newsbusters.org/blogs/noel-sheppard/2008/04/14/nobel-prize-winning-peacekeeper-asks-un-admit-climate-change-errors


Media uncovers more Palin stories in one weekend than Obama stories in two years. Still no bias detected

Obama: more experienced than Bristol Palin

robert108 on April 28, 2008 at 12:27 pm

Robert108:

Carrick: I have no doubt that your CO2 info is correct in a glass jar, but I very much doubt that even your model of global climate and atmospheric effects is anywhere near perfect. The historical record does not
demonstrate any sort of straight-line relationship between measured CO2 and
global temperature.

First, it’s not a linear relationship, it’s logarithmic. 

Second, the effect is real, as is the extra heat that goes into the atmosphere from the CO2.  Kenny asked me to demonstrate that there is an effect, I did so, with caveats about its uncertainties.

Third, I never said it was the dominant effect.  I am personally convinced that natural fluctuations account for about 2/3s of the temperature variations seen in the atmosphere.  Thus you would have to control for natural influences before you could make any sort of fit. 

That in fact is what is done with global climate models is to fit that constant, the so-called “climate sensitivity” of CO2.  It’s not a predetermined number, because too much of the physics is neglected in these models for that to work.  However,in my opinion, too much physics is left out for them to be particularly reliable, and yes, I have specific things in mind when I say that (too off topic for this comment).

Regarding energy independence, here is a table for you.  More than 1/2 comes from unstable countries

CANADA 1848
SAUDI 1382
MEXICO 1398
NIGERIA 1085
VENEZUELA 1031
IRAQ 433
ANGOLA 504
KUWAIT 165
COLOMBIA 106
ALGERIA 474
ECUADOR 226
BRAZIL 156
CONGO 48
CHAD 78
RUSSIA 40

Nigeria, Venezuela, Angola, and even Iraq represent potentially unstable supply sources near term, with even Kuwait and Saudi Arabia being so in the long term.

Parse the numbers as you will but our dependence on foreign oil is hardly a hoax.

Carrick on April 28, 2008 at 12:44 pm

First, it’s not a linear relationship, it’s logarithmic.

My apologies, Carrick; I said “straight-line”, and you heard it(understandably) as “linear”, which is correct, in scientific terms.  In layman’s terms, I meant “cause and effect”.  Once again, I apologize to you for my imprecision.


Media uncovers more Palin stories in one weekend than Obama stories in two years. Still no bias detected

Obama: more experienced than Bristol Palin

robert108 on April 28, 2008 at 01:33 pm

We increased the CO2 content of the atmosphere by 25%.  The physics associated with the greenhouse gas effect of CO2 gives a temperature increase of about 0.5–1.5°C.  (Since the greenhouse gas effect is saturated, the resulting warming associated with it is roughly 2–5°C log2(C/C0) where C is the concentration of CO2 and C0 is it’s initial value.  There is some debate about the number in front of the log2 number, it has to do with effects associated with a radiatively influenced turbulent atmosphere.)

This is under Debate as many scientists have pointed out that warming can indeed increase CO2 in the atmosphere. Data that supports this is that many times in the past, CO2 increases came after, not before, the warming. As Robert’s letter shows, many scientists do not consider it settled. Other examples are:
http://illconsidered.blogspot.com/2006/04/historically-co2-never-causes.html

Another link is that warmer water releases more CO2:
http://www.rocketscientistsjournal.com/2006/10/co2_acquittal.html

So, despite your snide remark, about how much of an ass I am, the science doesn’t conclusively back you up.

Quick recap:
There is quite a bit of evidence that CO2 doesn’t cause warming.
Pointing out that Bush is obsessed with greenism doesn’t mean he’s stupid. Many smart people are save the earther types.
The biofuels craze (which is indeed in Europe too) is helping increase the costs of crops.

Perhaps, Carrick, when people disagree with you, you should be slow to smugness, as I’ve yet to see you be smug and correct at the same time.


Obama/Biden is not change. It’s more of the same.

Kenny on April 28, 2008 at 05:40 pm

Yes, Kenny, the science does back me up. 

CO2 does cause warming, and the evidence is incontrovertible.

The question is not whether there is a greenhouse gas effect and whether CO2 contributes to that effect.  Both of these are well established, and the fact you think otherwise only displays your ignorance on this issue.

The question, as I explained above, is how much CO2 contributes to the total greenhouse gas effect, not whether it traps heat to start with.  And the reason that the answer is more complex is, as Robert108 alluded too, the atmosphere is not the same as a jar of air.  But the greenhouse gas effect is a real effect and only a quack or a poorly informed layman would argue otherwise.

Perhaps, Carrick, when people disagree with you, you should be slow to smugness, as I’ve yet to see you be smug and correct at the same time.

Why do you think this sort of shit-talk is necessary? 

You’ve been wrong on just about everything you’ve challenged me on, and acted the part of the ass at the same time.  I haven’t bothered to point out all of your errors, because you are too damned arrogant to listen to anybody, and I have much better things to do with my time that deal with your infantile behavior.

Carrick on April 28, 2008 at 07:14 pm

Here’s a physics proof that CO2 gas traps radiative heat:
IRabsn_water_co2.jpgMolecular absorption bands.

Note the spectral band around 15 microns where CO2 has an absorption band not shared by other gases?

That’s the end of the story.  CO2 does cause atmospheric heating. 

As I commented to Robert108, it’s not a linear effect but rather logarithmic.  The reason is that the CO2 effect is highly saturated in our atmosphere, and it turns out for a saturated gas, you have a logarithmic relationship between the greenhouse gas and the amount of heat that gets trapped.

There is a lot of quackery, for example this, by people who’ve obviously never had atomic physics courses, or they would know better.

Carrick on April 28, 2008 at 07:24 pm

I know this may be a marginal problem (comparatively), but I was wondering how the mini explosion of organic produce availability was compounding the food crisis. Obviously, organic production has a fairly significant effect on yields, and I was wondering how much influence it was having.


""That’s the problem with you lefties, you’re not willing to get your hands dirty. I’d suggest you roll up your sleeves.”

-Jack Bauer

Hoss on April 28, 2008 at 08:11 pm

That’s the end of the story.  CO2 does cause atmospheric heating.

So is this one of those things where you deny all evidence to the contrary like when talking about McCain. “CO2 causes global warming. The end!” To hell with the fact that warming precedes CO2 levels rises, or that C)2 being released from oceans is a consequence of warmer temperatures. TO HELL WITH THAT!

That graph doesn’t prove that humans cause global warming, only that, at certain frequencies, CO2 retains heat. Looking at the graph, the same is true for CH4, H2O, O2 and O3, and whatever the bottom is. The bottom graph is much more interesting than CO2 in that it retains heat in most wave lengths, including that whole 15 spectrum you’re so fond of.

HOLY CRAP! NO MORE....whatever it is that I can’t really read...Kinda looks like it’s H3), but I can’t tell.

Almost every substance known to man retains heat if the conditions are 100% perfect. The question is not, are there conditions in which CO2, like every other substance, can retain heat...but whether it is doing so, and whether there is evidence in the real world that CO2 is heating the planet. In this regard, the answer is a resounding no.


Obama/Biden is not change. It’s more of the same.

Kenny on April 29, 2008 at 02:04 am

You’ve been wrong on just about everything you’ve challenged me on, and acted the part of the ass at the same time.  I haven’t bothered to point out all of your errors, because you are too damned arrogant to listen to anybody, and I have much better things to do with my time that deal with your infantile behavior.

We’ve tangled on a grand total of one issue that I remember. And I was 100% correct and you were being a dishonest jackass who labeled everyone who disagreed with you a liar and a moron to boot. When you told me to put up or shut up...I produced dozens of links to back me up.

And even here, Robert and I have produced links proving you wrong. Robert produced a Nobel Prize winning scientist calling BS. You produce a useless graph and call us morons. Classy.

Fuck off you twat. Don’t piss on my foot and then complain when I’m not respectful in my response. Notice that I’m usually pretty polite to others who disagree with me on this site. The major exceptions are H , Wata, and you (with the sometimes addition of PParets). Maybe if you stopped being such a smug prick, maybe you wouldn’t get treated like one.


Obama/Biden is not change. It’s more of the same.

Kenny on April 29, 2008 at 02:15 am

You haven’t produced jack shit on this or previously.  You throw out widely inflammatory language with half-ass thought out arguments and think you’ve scored some kind of victory.

With the McCain issue you were obviously too bent of out shap to understand the difference between and objective standard of measure, and a subjective where you get to post hoc adjust the measure to fit your prior conceptions.  I let that slide partly because I have better things to do than carry on nonsense with verbal bullies like yourself, and partly because I did understand that people’s emotions were inflamed over the question and just let it slide.

I can see now that’s this is just a generic feature of how a 2-bit verbal bully like yourself interacts with people.  You simply lack the social skills to be able to disagree with people on things you feel strongly about, without laying a big stinking pile of shit.  That’s not my problem, that’s yours.

Anybody with an elementary understanding of physics could look at the absorption spectrum for atmospheric gases and see that CO2 obviously traps heat.  The ground radiates heat at infrared frequencies as a result of solar heating.  Part of that infrared spectrum gets absorbed by CO2 gas.  That’s the “classic CO2 effect’.

There isn’t anything to deny about the classic CO2 effect: no reputable scientist denies that it exists.  To bad you’re too close minded to understand the simple argument that I gave.  The list of scientists who don’t disagree about the existence of the classic CO2 effect includes global warming critics like Steve McIntyre, Roy Spencer, Roger Pielke, Fred Singer and so forth. 

As to this:

That graph doesn’t prove that humans cause global warming,

.  Nobody here said, including me, that the global warming we’ve observed in the last 150 yers is due to anthropogenic CO2.  In deed, I’ve generally argued the opposite (that most of it is natural).

You challenged me to demonstrate that there is any effect, I merely demonstrated that an effect whereby CO2 heats this planet exists, not the much harder (nobel-prize winning level) problem of whether there is sufficient amplification of the CO2 greenhouse effect from the CO2-water vapor feedback loop.

Almost every substance known to man retains heat if the conditions are 100% perfect. The question is not, are there conditions in which CO2, like every other substance, can retain heat...but whether it is doing so, and whether there is evidence in the real world that CO2 is heating the planet. In this regard, the answer is a resounding no.

My God, you can be an ignorant ass at times.  If CO2 absorbs heat, and if the Earth radiates heat, then the answer is “of course CO2 traps heat”.  It is well understand and disputed by nobody.

You keep conflating the issue of whether anthropogenic CO2 is driving recent global warming with the overall question of whether CO2 is a greenhouse gas.  The latter is definitely true, the former there is greater uncertainty on.

. Robert produced a Nobel Prize winning scientist calling BS.

I think you need to check that link again.

Notice that I’m usually pretty polite to others who disagree with me on this site.

Don’t give me your lame ass excuses for your poor behavior. I’m not interested.

Carrick on April 29, 2008 at 04:28 am

corrigendum:  ...whether there is sufficient amplification of the CO2 greenhouse effect from the CO2-water vapor feedback loop to account for recent global warming.

And because if there is any snipplet that I don’t address in Kenny’s rants, no matter how poorly developed they are, then he accuses me of intellectual dishonesty:

I agree that the historic pattern between global mean temperature shows CO2 emissions typically lagging behind global mean temperature by about 800 years, for example:<img>http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/c2/Vostok-ice-core-petit.png</img> However, there are historical events such as large volcanic explosions (like the event at the Permian-Triassic period) where the initial CO2 emissions preceded the initial global warming.

On top of any initial warming (by any mechanism include CO2 release) there is a well known positive feedback mechanism, whereby the warming heats the oceans, and since the solubility of CO2 gas in the oceans varies inversely to temperature, then some of the CO2 gets released by the oceans, creating future heating and so forth.  Notice it’s a positive feedback mechanism because any initial warming leads to an amplified warming via the CO2 that is being released. 

here are some links: http://www.aip.org/history/climate/co2.htm

There is a scatter plot I’ve seen where the time lags between CO2 and global mean temperature changes are plotted, I can’t locate it right now.  But what it shows is basically a Gaussian distribution centered with a 800 year lag for CO2 relative to global mean temperature, but with a very large standard deviation (1-sigma corresponds to roughly 1000 years if I remember the graph right). 

This means there is a substantial overlap with 0-lag and even part of the distribution in which the CO2 leads rather than lags temperature.  It’s simplistic to describe the phenomenon as CO2 always following temperature by 800 years, in science we use the word “tendency” as in “CO2 tends to follow temperature”.

What we do know about these historical data is that most of the warming cannot be ascribed to CO2 because we are seeing temperature differences on the order of 10°C, and very small variations in CO2.  The CO2 cannot be causing the observed warming, because even the proposed CO2-water vapor feedback doesn’t provide enough environmental sensitivity to CO2 to produce those temperature swings.

A few general references Excellent treatment of the history of the physics of atmospheric CO2.  Here’s the money quote for the discussion here: <blockquote>Eventually geochemists and their allies managed to get numbers for the “climate sensitivity” in ancient eras, that is, the response of temperature to a rise in the CO2 level. Over hundreds of millions of years, a doubled level of the gas had always gone along with a temperature rise of three degrees, give or take a couple of degrees. That agreed almost exactly with the numbers coming from many computer studies.</blockquto>The “climate sensitivity” of “three degrees, give or take a couple of degrees” is the constant sitting in front of

T(C) = T0 log2(C/C0).

Basically if T0=3°C, that would predict a warming of 3°C for a doubling of atmospheric CO2.

I’m sure Kenny can find something to bitch about my characterization of this.

Carrick on April 29, 2008 at 05:04 am

Corrected image link:

Vostok-ice-core-petit.png

Carrick on April 29, 2008 at 05:05 am
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