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Sunday, January 14, 2007

Economists Upgrade US Outlook After Surprisingly Strong Data

Read about it here:

Of course, it's not "surprising" to anyone who understands economics.


Economists are hastily upgrading their forecasts for the US economy after a series of surprisingly strong reports suggesting the so-called “soft landing” may be over and growth is accelerating.

Over the past week, surprises have come in stronger-than-expected reports on US job creation, the trade balance and retail sales—all key contributors to economic activity.

Lehman Brothers chief US economist Ethan Harris on Friday boosted his forecast for fourth quarter 2006 growth to an annualized rate of 3.3 percent, a leap from the firm’s prior call for just 2.0 percent growth.

“After slowing in November, the economy seems to have regained its stride,” Harris said.

“With the last of the major data in, we are now revising fourth quarter GDP to an above-trend 3.3 percent. A wide range of indicators have been stronger than expected. Most important have been the strong consumption data and the surprising improvement in the trade balance.”

The latest data defy predictions that the slump in real estate would filter into other areas of the economy, notably consumer spending.

The latest data showed US employers added a healthy 167,000 new jobs in December, with unemployment holding at a low 4.5 percent. Average wages were up 4.2 percent annually.

A separate report Friday showed US retail sales increased 0.9 percent in December.

[...]

“However, looking closely at these factors on net they argue for more, not less strength in the first quarter of 2007,” he said.


Read the whole thing.

After all the hate-filled leftie trolls downtalking the economy for the past few days, it’s good to get back to the real world.

Comments

They gonna have a coronary over this.


Una Salus Victus Nullam Sperare Salutem

2Hotel9 on January 15, 2007 at 06:04 am
Avatar for rebubscantdoanythingright

Nice rebub editorial. These where found tward the bottom of your link.

Retail sales are closely watched as consumer spending accounts for about two-thirds of US economic activity. Some analysts have theorized that slumping housing prices may crimp spending in a reversal of the so-called wealth effect.

But some analysts say the strong data may be distorted by mild weather and drops in energy costs.

“Some of this strength, however, should prove illusory,” said Wachovia Securities economists in a research note.

“Housing and motor vehicle production are still major drags on output, with residential construction expected to slice another percentage point off fourth quarter growth and declines in motor vehicle output slicing off another percentage point.”

Wachovia expects GDP growth “to slow to around a two percent pace in 2007 and look for a string of seven consecutive quarters of GDP growth below three percent,” the report said.
Harris at Lehman Brothers said “a natural question is whether the solid fourth-quarter growth is a fluke.”

He said data could be distorted by things such as the introduction of the new Windows Vista operating system, shifts in holiday shopping patterns, problems in the auto sector, the plunge in energy prices and unusually warm winter weather.

“However, looking closely at these factors on net they argue for more, not less strength in the first quarter of 2007,” he said.

Whatever!!!, your going to have to try harder than that.

rebubscantdoanythingright on January 15, 2007 at 01:53 pm

Nice leftie editorial from you, downtalking the terrific economy.  Due to the mobility of privately-owned capital(a distinguishing feature of our economy), no single market, like the housing market, has any real effect on the overall picture.  Capital moves to where it gets the most return.  Static analysis is always wrong, since our economy is dynamic.  Whatever your cherry-picked sources “expect”, it isn’t real news.
A month ago, we were told by those “experts” that the Christmas shopping season was a bust, and now that turns out to be false, so they are trying to spin it as a “fluke”.  Nice spin, but the economy keeps ticking along.
The strong data isn’t “distorted” by anything, execpt leftie wishes for a bad economy.  The data is strong because the economy is strong.


Save America; boycott the MSM.

robert108 on January 15, 2007 at 03:42 pm
Avatar for rebubscantdoanythingright

Ive yet to see you link to or quote real news yet. What you have done here, is quote someone quoteing quotes off the net. Then he comes to an opinion on the economy. You can see this, yet you post it here as if its news.

rebubscantdoanythingright on January 15, 2007 at 04:23 pm

Wrong again, trollbreath; read it and weep:
(anything over 50 denotes expansion)
Since you can’t seem to notice what is going on around you, here’s a link for the economically challenged.

http://www.ism.ws/ISMReport/content.cfm?ItemNumber=10752&CFID=833560&CFTOKEN=38034538


Save America; boycott the MSM.

robert108 on January 15, 2007 at 08:45 pm
Avatar for rebubscantdoanythingright

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
2007 49.1 49.0 38.1 30.3 29.5 24.1 22.3 19.4 12.7
7.2 4.5 0.01

2006 54.8 56.7 55.2 57.3 54.4 53.8 54.7 54.5 52.9 51.2 49.5 51.4

2005 56.3 55.6 55.3 53.8 51.8 54.0 56.4 53.5 58.0 58.1 57.3 55.6

2004 62.9 62.2 62.3 63.0 62.9 61.5 61.5 59.6 58.0 56.8 56.9 58.6

Whats it goig to be in two months?

Wrong again, trollbreath

Your high on crack, if you think this artical is fact.
You can thank christmas for Novembers 0.6% increase and decembers 0.9% sales increase. Jan and Feb are a whole new story! People have there cards maxed and they are not looking to shop.

rebubscantdoanythingright on January 15, 2007 at 09:33 pm

Since you are so economically ignorant, here is the explanation of what the numbers mean:

Every long period of manufacturing expansion in the past 60 years has been followed by at least seven months of contraction. But the most recently ended expansion was followed by only one month of contraction before manufacturing moved right back into expansion mode again, as you’ll see.

The following is from ISM history going all the way back to 1948; parenthetical values are for the month following the end of each streak, the lowest value it went to during the subsequent contraction, and the number of months of sub-50 performance occurred before the Index went back to 50.0 or higher (previous info carried forward from


Save America; boycott the MSM.

robert108 on January 15, 2007 at 11:24 pm
Avatar for rebubscantdoanythingright

Is it white crack or yellow crack? Maybe its meth!This economy can not handle a war with irans people. 9/11 LOL your boy in office fucked up bad with Iraq. Turning a thousand alkida into millions across the world. Murdering 600,000+ civilians, he fucked up bad, if he left anyone of the survivig family members live. Now he is thinking about Iran and Seria. These people will not fuck around. Can you say Israel and Palestine, think much worse. The dems may save this country and its economy, if they grow a pair and stop the commander and sociopath. Your opinion and your posting to editorials is irrelevant to the bigger picture. Smoke up!

rebubscantdoanythingright on January 16, 2007 at 09:15 pm

Murdering 600,000+ civilians, he fucked up bad, if he left anyone of the survivig family members live.

That number has been roundly debunked for some time now. That you cling onto it as some sort of lifeboat for your defeatist views is pathetic. You constantly insult others while making up your own facts to fit your argument. Not too slick there.

I find it funny that the left spends so much time talking down an expanding economy. I’m glad we have it this “bad”.

likwidshoe on January 16, 2007 at 09:33 pm
Avatar for rebubscantdoanythingright

That number has been roundly debunked for some time now. You constantly insult others while making up your own facts to fit your argument.

http://www.iraqbodycount.org/ This site debunks nothing! LOL This site used to quote over 100000 dead!! 

THE IRAQ BODY COUNT PROJECT
http://www.iraqbodycount.org/
This is an ongoing human security project which maintains and updates the world’s only independent and comprehensive public database of media-reported civilian deaths in Iraq

Your telling me, every murder in Iraq is counted by the media!! Get the fuck out of here! 

Death Toll Has Reached 655,000

The technique, called “cluster sampling,” is used to estimate mortality in famines and after natural disasters.

While acknowledging that the estimate is large, the researchers believe it is sound for numerous reasons. The recent survey got the same estimate for immediate post-invasion deaths as the early survey, which gives the researchers confidence in the methods. The great majority of deaths were also substantiated by death certificates.

“We’re very confident with the results,” said Gilbert Burnham, a Johns Hopkins physician and epidemiologist.

A Defense Department spokesman did not comment directly on the estimate.

“The Department of Defense always regrets the loss of any innocent life in Iraq or anywhere else,” said Lt. Col. Mark Ballesteros. “The coalition takes enormous precautions to prevent civilian deaths and injuries.”.

making up your own facts to fit your argument

Where???? here >

Spy Agencies Say Iraq War Worsens Terrorism Threat

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/09/24/world/middleeast/24terror.html?ex=1316750400&en=da252be85d1b39fa&ei=5088&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cluster_sampling

That you cling onto it as some sort of lifeboat for your defeatist views is pathetic

Not only does that sound just like your predicament, I havent been defeated by anyone on this board. To state the economy is going to expand well into the future, is nothing more than a opinion. The economically ignorant on this board only take opinion as fact. Maybe I should just post my opinion..... hmmm :/

rebubscantdoanythingright on January 17, 2007 at 12:47 am
Avatar for Johnny-O

Newsweek details the US creating the next generation of Jihadists:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/16610768/site/newsweek/

Regarding the economy- the dollar has been steadily weakening relative to much of the rest of the world.

Johnny-O on January 17, 2007 at 02:01 am

Regarding the economy- the dollar has been steadily weakening relative to much of the rest of the world.

You demonstrate your typical leftie ignorance of economics.  This is an intentional policy, known as the “Weak Dollar Policy”, that is practiced for the purpose of decreasing the “trade deficit”.  It is wrong, but not symptomatic of any problems with our economy.  IMO, we should ignore this “trade deficit”, and also the unions that call for the weak dollar policy.  It is totally unnecessary.


Save America; boycott the MSM.

robert108 on January 17, 2007 at 09:06 am

Maybe I should just post my opinion..... hmmm :/

That is all you do here.  Your politically-agendized links are simply propaganda.


Save America; boycott the MSM.

robert108 on January 17, 2007 at 09:15 am

Not even good propaganda. More like the Hannah-Barbera level of propaganda, not LooneyTunes. Or perhaps AirAmerica level. Whats lower than AA’s moronic crap?


Una Salus Victus Nullam Sperare Salutem

2Hotel9 on January 17, 2007 at 09:22 am
Avatar for rebubscantdoanythingright

Not even good propaganda. More like the Hannah-Barbera level of propaganda, not LooneyTunes. Or perhaps AirAmerica level. Whats lower than AA’s moronic crap?

WTF are you talking about, all youve posted is retarded crap!! BTW, I dont listen to corporate AA. It sounds like you do.

That is all you do here.  Your politically-agendized links are simply propaganda.

Thats funny, I would say the same about your editorial links. At least I can post to news and not simply just opinions.

rebubscantdoanythingright on January 19, 2007 at 12:13 am

mikey, take your anti-American, Marxist horseshit and ram it back up your ass where it came from.


Una Salus Victus Nullam Sperare Salutem

2Hotel9 on January 19, 2007 at 04:35 am

the rebubs fool had stated, http://www.iraqbodycount.org/ This site debunks nothing! LOL This site used to quote over 100000 dead!!

No it didn’t. Never has. I think you’re referring to the first Lancet “study” that was debunked for its shoddy numbers.

Your telling me, every murder in Iraq is counted by the media!! Get the fuck out of here!

No, I’m not. The media reported figures are in the ballpark though.

You go on about cluster sampling, along with your heavy dose of talking shit, as if that explains things. You didn’t address the many flaws within the clustering used.

Not only does that sound just like your predicament, I havent been defeated by anyone on this board.

You defeat yourself with the weak arguments.

likwidshoe on January 25, 2007 at 10:17 am
Avatar for Lefties were right

It was a great deal of fun reading all the comments from the conservatives with no real conception of how the economy works.  Their psuedo-intellectual theorizing and claims of how smart they are are truly giggle inducing.  Thanks for the great laughs!  Now that the economy has totally tanked, everything you said has been proven a sham.  smile

Lefties were right on March 8, 2008 at 07:12 am

Lefties.  What economics courses have you taken?  Are you quoting macroeconomics?


Communism is evil

Chief RZ on March 8, 2008 at 07:37 am

Whose economy has tanked? Care to point to it? Perhaps you are babbling about Venezuela, or Cuba, or Zimbabwe? Because America’s economy is nowhere near “tanked”.


Una Salus Victus Nullam Sperare Salutem

2Hotel9 on March 8, 2008 at 11:13 am
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