Despite popular belief, the world is not running out of oil, UW scientist says
From the U of Washington website:
If you think the world is on the verge of running out of oil or other mineral resources, you’ve been taken in by the foremost of seven myths about resource geology, according to a University of Washington economic geologist.
“The most common question I get is, ‘When are we going to run out of oil.’ The correct response is, ‘Never,’” said Eric Cheney. “It might be a heck of a lot more expensive than it is now, but there will always be some oil available at a price, perhaps $10 to $100 a gallon.”
Changing economics, technological advances and efforts such as recycling and substitution make the world’s mineral resources virtually infinite, said Cheney, a UW professor emeritus of Earth and space sciences. For instance, oil deposits unreachable 40 years ago can be tapped today using improved technology, and oil once too costly to extract from tar sands, organic matter or coal is now worth manufacturing. Though some resources might be costlier now, they still are needed.
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Other myths that he wants to dispel include:* Only basic extraction and processing costs affect economic geology. That fails to account for such costs as exploration, transportation, taxes and societal and environmental programs.
* Production always damages the environment. Accidents do happen, Cheney said, but much of the perception is based on problems of the past and don’t reflect current reality. “It’s inevitable that there are going to be oil spills, just like tere are traffic accidents on the freeway,” he said. “We hope we can manage them, but nothing is risk free.”
* Mineral deposits are excessively profitable. Despite widely reported huge oil company profits in the last year, Cheney notes that as a percentage of company revenues oil profits lag far behind those of some major software and banking companies.
* Transportation costs are trivial. In fact, the retail cost of building materials such as sand and gravel are largely driven by the cost of moving them from one place to another, particularly in crowded urban areas. Moving quarries and pits farther away from where people live only increases those costs.
* Ore deposits are uniform. While a valued ore can be found in a large continuous deposit, often it is mixed with other kinds of minerals and extraction becomes more expensive.
* Resources are randomly distributed and so, if human population encroaches, a mine or quarry should simply be able to relocate.
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“The point is that we have to have members of the public who are not geologists and who know something about mineral resources. There are going to be some important policy decisions in the next decades, so we need to have some smart voters,” he said. “We can start in colleges by dispelling myths in courses for students who are not going to become professional geoscientists.”
Read the whole thing.
It’s time to stop the scareology being promoted by the enviro extremists and make our energy policy based on truth.
