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Tuesday, January 23, 2007

Chinese Destroy Satelite with Ballistic Missile… Thanks, Bill.

Chinese is a language that lends itself more toward the aesthetic and ethereal than it does to detail-oriented scientific and engineering concerns. Gunpowder, for example, was invented at least 1000 years before Marco Polo brought the substance back from one of his trips to the Middle Kingdom for the Europeans to use inventing firearms.

I mention this because the recent shoot-down by the Chinese of one of their own weather satellites strikes me as a “great leap forward” in the development of a very complex technology. (Pun intended.)

The point is that the defense of the US rests largely on its satellite technology. Photographic spy satellites, electronic eavesdropping satellites, communications satellites, GPS satellites used specifically for an array of precision weapons targeting.

Similarly, our nation’s economy rests to a large degree on satellite technology, from secure world-wide financial transmissions to navigation of virtually all commercial vehicles, on the road, the seas, or in the sky.

It’s difficult enough to build a ballistic missile and fire it successfully. It is quite another thing entirely to make it hit a pre-determined target. Either a stationary target hundreds or even thousands of miles away, or a small target orbiting 500 miles above the earth. Both exercises in targeting require a very sophisticated system of missile guidance. So, where did the Chinese get such a capability? Where indeed?

From Salon magazine, May 1998,
The Clinton administration between 1993 and 1996 allowed numerous exports of potential ballistic-missile technology to the Chinese government despite China’s refusal, in some instances, to allow inspections to assure that the technology was only being used for civilian purposes, according to classified documents and four U.S. government officials.

Moreover, as early as 1993, a classified Pentagon study raised questions about the possible diversion of U.S. technology by the Chinese military for China’s ballistic-missile program, according to the documents and sources. Defense Department officials privately charge that the Clinton administration ignored its warnings regarding the potential diversions.

U.S. oversight of high-technology exports to China has been hampered by the fact that there has been no formal arrangement with China to allow for inspections, according to a Clinton administration official: “We don’t have an agreement with China for postshipment verification checks.”


In apparent exchange for substantial contributions to the Clinton/Gore reelection campaign by Loral chairman Bernard Schwartz, and those of overseas Chinese funneled through a number of “donors” and fundraisers such as Johnny Chung, Clinton switched the licensing authority for transfers of ballistic missile guidance and satellite technology to China from the State Department to Ron Brown’s Commerce Department, then personally signed off on the transfers.
Loral’s chairman, Bernard Schwartz, has personally been the single largest campaign contributor to the national Democratic Party during the Clinton presidency, making $1.1 million in contributions in recent years.

When Loral was granted the waiver in February by the Clinton administration, the aerospace corporation was under investigation by the Justice Department for providing unauthorized assistance to China’s ballistic-missile program. Justice Department officials were concerned that a waiver might make it tougher to bring a potential criminal prosecution against Loral.


Nor was Loral the only US defense technology firm to transfer significant defense and satelite related capability to the Chinese with the blessings of the Clinton administration.

This from the Washington Post
Hughes (Electronics Corp.), the world’s largest satellite-builder and a favorite of U.S. trade officials (Commerce Department), has gotten almost all it has sought from the Clinton administration on China deals, through in-your-face lobbying tactics and a revolving-door hiring policy for officials departing key agencies, government and industry officials said.

Angry at State, (Hughes CEO C. Michael) Armstrong… soon got Clinton to name him chairman of the President’s Export Council, a presidential advisory group. It was an odd choice, given Armstrong’s GOP affiliations and his past blunt talks with Clinton, industry officials said. But then again, Armstrong did represent a huge firm beloved by administration technology wonks in a key electoral state, they said…



From that perch, Armstrong lobbied Secretary of State Warren Christopher and many members of the administration and Congress for his key objective: moving licensing authority for all Chinese satellite deals from State to Commerce.

In 1995 Armstrong hired Loretta Dunn, then a top aide to Commerce Secretary Ronald H. Brown, as Hughes’s vice president for trade. She lobbied numerous former colleagues in the administration and is credited with helping arrange Clinton’s March 1996 decision shifting regulatory authority over Chinese satellite deals to her former agency.

“When we say we’re questioning the Clinton administration’s policy on satellite sales to China, we should say it’s the Clinton-Hughes-Armstrong policy,” said a congressional investigator. “Hughes is the Commerce Department.”



So now we know where the technology came from… how it is that the Chinese are now able to target and destroy space-based satellites. Was the Clinton-Gore reelection worth this? I doubt it, for we are now hugely at risk, both militarily and economically.

It will be interesting to see just what Hilary has to say about China and the threat it clearly poses to US interests as she pursues her bid for the White House.

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Proof
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Don’t forget Clinton’s contribution to the Department of Energy Hazel O’Leary. Her downgrading of security at our nuclear research facilities and her advocacy of selling super-computers to North Korea and China were a big help, too!



For any voter trying to choose between the two candidates for commander in chief, there is no better test than this: When American strategy in a critical theater was up for grabs, John McCain proposed a highly unpopular and risky path, which he accurately predicted could lead to success. Barack Obama proposed a popular and politically safe route that would have led to an unnecessary and debilitating American defeat at the hands of al Qaeda.

Frederick W. Kagan

Proof on January 24, 2007 at 08:59 am

Proof Prof,

Good of you to remind us just how forgettable a political hack Hazel O’Leary was.

Like many others, I have been frustrated with President Bush and downright angry with Congressional Republicans over the past six years.  But it has ALWAYS been when they have acted like Democrats.

We are still paying a mighty price for the self-righteous ineptitude and slimy corruption of the last Democrat administration (and the one before that, as well).  The satellites on which we depend for our national defense and our continued economic growth are now at risk because Bill Clinton decided that his reelection was more important than the country’s national security.

The campaign contributions, legal and illegal, were more important than safeguarding our nation’s technology.

It’s a strange coincidence that the two worst American presidents of the 20th century were both liberal Democrats.  The first was pathetically inept.  The second was too self-absorbed to give a shit.


“Poverty of goods is easily cured; poverty of the mind is irreparable.”

Bat One on January 24, 2007 at 09:21 am

Bat One, are you saying you wanted the contracts to go to the French, or the Russians? Or do you just hate capitalism and trade?

As you may know, space is pretty much a vacuum. This means high explosives are of no use since there is no atmosphere to propagate the shock-wave. So, to take out a satellite, either an electro-magnetic radiation method (like a laser, or an EMP) or a kinetic hit. To hit a fridge sized satellite from 500 miles, and with very high closing speeds, requires very, very good mathematicians and engineers. (China must have a lot of talented engineers as they train about 120,000 per year?)

So even if technology exports made the job easier (which I assume they did or else China wouldn’t have bothered?), chances are it would simply delay the program a bit to make a few more of the parts in-house. So if China developed them in-house, or they went to the French or Russians, then it would have been a loss in sales for U.S. firms for no real difference in outcome.


“All the war-propaganda, all the screaming and lies and hatred, comes invariably from people who are not fighting.”
“Every war when it comes, or before it comes, is represented not as a war but as an act of self-defense against a homicidal maniac.” —George Orwell

Anarchist Vegetarian on January 24, 2007 at 08:29 pm

AV,

Are you saying that Bill Clinton’s treacherous sale of defense technology to the Chinese (or to anyone), is acceptable simp;y because others besides Mr. Clinton profited handsomely?  Do you actually hate this country that much, or are you merely trying to convince us that you are clever enough to rationalize any sort of leftist misbehavior?

Incidentally, as I recall, Julius and Ethel Rosenberg were electrocuted for much the same actions, and they got a helluva lot less money for their betrayal than did Clinton.


“Poverty of goods is easily cured; poverty of the mind is irreparable.”

Bat One on January 24, 2007 at 08:42 pm

AV: Isn’t it obvious that if the Chinese could have developed this technology themselves, or could have gotten it elsewhere, they would have done so?  Clinton took campaign money from the Chinese, so he was their boy, and when they needed some high tech stuff, they came to him.


If life doesn’t begin at conception, why do they call it birth control?

robert108 on January 24, 2007 at 08:51 pm

Yea!! Cause the French have feilded so many successful rocket systems that can reliably strike objects in high orbit.


Una Salus Victus Nullam Sperare Salutem

2Hotel9 on January 24, 2007 at 08:55 pm

2H9,

Say, what WAS the last successful French military exploit or invention?  Dien Bien Phu didn’t work out so well as I recall.  Neither did Algeria.  And reports are their backs are turned the wrong way again at the Israel-Lebanon border.

Matt over at Blackfive once suggested a French tank with five reverse gears in one of the funniest stories I’ve ever read (It’s what happens when you try to make officers out of good NCOs)

C’est la vie!


“Poverty of goods is easily cured; poverty of the mind is irreparable.”

Bat One on January 24, 2007 at 09:08 pm

Isn’t it obvious that if the Chinese could have developed this technology themselves, or could have gotten it elsewhere, they would have done so?--Robert108

You should understand this Robert108, it was a matter of cost. There is no evidence that says that non-American engineers can’t make high-tech toys too. (Japan makes the best cars.)

Cause the French have feilded so many successful rocket systems that can reliably strike objects in high orbit.--2Hotel9

Are you hinting that the Chinese bought a turn-key system and it took ten years to finally fire it? Also, French missile tech. is amongst the best apparently, and Russian missile tech. is very good and cheap too.

Bat One, I am not defending Clinton, if he ever gets thrown in prison for twenty years, he’d probably have deserved it. But considering that the PS2 upon release was considered a supercomputer and had to be exempt from export controls (though produced in Japan!?), maybe the export laws are ridiculous? Especially with all the `free-trade’ rhetoric floating around.


“All the war-propaganda, all the screaming and lies and hatred, comes invariably from people who are not fighting.”
“Every war when it comes, or before it comes, is represented not as a war but as an act of self-defense against a homicidal maniac.” —George Orwell

Anarchist Vegetarian on January 24, 2007 at 09:15 pm

Damn, Bravo1, “When you try to make Officers out of good NCOs.” I am ain’t heard that sentence in a long, long time. The 2 are not mutually exclusive, though as close as to make little difference.


Una Salus Victus Nullam Sperare Salutem

2Hotel9 on January 24, 2007 at 09:39 pm

AV, no hinting at all, Chinese engineers and designers are very good, they do not have the advanced R&D establishment that America and European countries have. Though they are catching up fast. And as you have pointed out before, Brazil ain’t taking no siesta. South Africa is no slouch, and as long as they can walk the tightrope with all their northern neighbors and get cheap minerals and other raw material they are moving forward. Technologically, at least.


Una Salus Victus Nullam Sperare Salutem

2Hotel9 on January 24, 2007 at 09:47 pm

As for French missle tech, yes, they produce very fine anti-aircraft systems, and there tank killing shoulder-launched rockets are as nasty as anything on the planet. And there is the rub. On the planet. The French have ongoing problems with their multi-stage systems, they also have inertial guidance system problems.

I don’t care much for their tanks, either. They do build a damn fine APC/ACC vehicle.


Una Salus Victus Nullam Sperare Salutem

2Hotel9 on January 24, 2007 at 10:04 pm

I thought the ESA was getting along just fine. Haven’t really been following it though. Germany make some good tanks though.


“All the war-propaganda, all the screaming and lies and hatred, comes invariably from people who are not fighting.”
“Every war when it comes, or before it comes, is represented not as a war but as an act of self-defense against a homicidal maniac.” —George Orwell

Anarchist Vegetarian on January 24, 2007 at 10:47 pm

They do build a damn fine APC/ACC vehicle.

2H9,

Considering the traffic in Paris, this is perfectly understandable.


“Poverty of goods is easily cured; poverty of the mind is irreparable.”

Bat One on January 24, 2007 at 10:57 pm

Yes indeed, Germany makes an excellent line of integrated armored vehicles, inter-changability of components and weapons systems being a major factor in that.

ESA is only doing about half as well as they wished they could. Notice the ISS does not depend on them for critical supplies. Even while Shuttle was deadlined, they only took cargo from Russian launch facilities. 2 from Vandenburg. 1 from CC.


Una Salus Victus Nullam Sperare Salutem

2Hotel9 on January 24, 2007 at 10:57 pm
Proof
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Matt over at Blackfive once suggested a French tank with five reverse gears…

Yes, but the French tanks always have one forward gear in case they’re attacked from the rear!



For any voter trying to choose between the two candidates for commander in chief, there is no better test than this: When American strategy in a critical theater was up for grabs, John McCain proposed a highly unpopular and risky path, which he accurately predicted could lead to success. Barack Obama proposed a popular and politically safe route that would have led to an unnecessary and debilitating American defeat at the hands of al Qaeda.

Frederick W. Kagan

Proof on January 25, 2007 at 05:22 am

Oh they do enjoy that attack to the rear.


Una Salus Victus Nullam Sperare Salutem

2Hotel9 on January 25, 2007 at 06:13 am
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