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Tuesday, March 04, 2008

Chavez About to Really Screw Himself?

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The thorn-in-Americas-side Venezuelan leader Hugo Chavez may soon be the mouse that pissed the cat off once too often. Chavez has mobilized his military and put them on the border with Columbia.
President Hugo Chávez yesterday placed Venezuela on a war footing, sending thousands of troops and tanks to the border with Colombia after its neighbour killed a top rebel leader inside Ecuadorean territory.

“Mr. Defense Minister, move me 10 battalions to the border with Colombia immediately - tank battalions,” Mr Chávez boomed on his weekly television programme, Aló Presidente. He also placed the Venezuelan Air Force on standby for action.


This is no small threat, having devoted a fair amount of the petro-bucks he has been exacting from the USA and other oil purchasers to obtain top-of-the-line military equipment like German Leopard II tanks and former Soviet Su-30 advanced jet fighters.

Chavez, like any Statist, gravitates to the ready-built dystopian system of Marxism because it facilitates his greed for total power and gives it an imprimatur of dignity (if such a thing can be said of Marxism) that he would not otherwise have.
Washington doesn’t like Chávez for other reasons. First he has had the temerity to invite Fidel Castro to Caracas. He also visited Libya, Iran and Iraq, all members, with Venezuela, of OPEC, through which he arranged for a substantial increase in the price of oil (the Americans were especially indignant over his visit to Saddam Hussein).

The US administration has recently expressed worry about Chávez’s democratic credentials. He became president in 1998 after he won 58 per cent of the popular vote. In 2000, under a new constitution, he won a higher percentage vote and his party won more than 80 per cent of the seats in a new congress and nobody has questioned the validity of those elections. While protesting its respect for democracy in Venezuela, there are suspicions that the US may have inspired three generals in the Venezuelan army to call for the resignation of Chávez.

VENEZUELA is probably the richest country in South America because of its oil - it is by far the most important source of oil for the US economy, yet it has managed to squander the riches it has brought in the last 40 years.


Chavez has spent a good deal of his tenure taunting the USA and doing what he can, short of war, to generally piss us off. But he has always stayed on just this side of the Line of Death.

That time may soon be over.

If Chavez attacks Columbia he may be giving the United States and her South American allies the excuse they have long been praying for. Much of South America are signatories of the RIO TREATY
(Inter-American Treaty of Reciprocal Assistance), signed Sept. 2, 1947, and originally ratified by all 21 American republics. Under the treaty, an armed attack or threat of aggression against a signatory nation, whether by a member nation or by some other power, will be considered an attack against all (see Pan-Americanism). The treaty provides that no member can use force without the unanimous consent of the other signatories, but that other measures against aggressors may be approved by a two-thirds majority. It differs from previous inter-American treaties in that it is a regional treaty within a larger international organization; it recognizes the higher authority of the Security Council of the United Nations.


It would be very interesting to see if Bush can or will use force to finally take Chavez out. After all, not so long ago, Bushs’ Dad took out a very similar character in Operation Just Cause.

Maybe they’ll call this one OPERATION JUST CAUSE - PART DEUX

Comments

I can’t see taking Chavez out over this--would be too difficult.  Who wants to fight block by block in Caracas?  On the other hand, I can see an AWACS plane suddenly making the radios and radars of all those Leopards and SU-30s go silent just as they cross the border, making them sitting ducks for F-18s and Apaches.

Bike Bubba on March 4, 2008 at 12:18 pm

Zig,

Chavez is just beating his chest.

The US will back Columbia (just enough), help secure
Guyana from any further intrusion by Chavez so financing a prolonged conflict will be impossible.

Unless of course he wishes to dump some of his natural assets on the marketplace, which is going to be met with resistance by some of his newly developed frienships.


“To love is not to stare steadfast at one another...it is to look forward, in the same direction.”
Saint-Exupéry

laydownSally on March 4, 2008 at 09:06 pm

Chavez is just beating his chest.

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Huh.

She said ‘chest’....

heh heh

heh heh.

Kewl.

Seriously, this has the possibility of turning into something larger.  Chavez has been busy forming relationships and alliances with a host of unsavory countries and terrorist groups to include Iran and Red China—who really have been wanting inroads onto the South American continent and a ready access to oil, for which they have a new-found voracious demand.

It may just blow over to be nothing.  It’s the old analyst in me coming out again.


...for great justice

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Move_Zig on March 4, 2008 at 10:16 pm

Seriously, this has the possibility of turning into something larger

Well the article you provided a link for in the above comment certainly paints a bleak picture of South America.

But direct involvement in a conflict with Venezuela would create problems the US doesn’t need right now.

Did you ever here about the first South American nuclear submarine?


“To love is not to stare steadfast at one another...it is to look forward, in the same direction.”
Saint-Exupéry

laydownSally on March 4, 2008 at 10:56 pm

"hear”


“To love is not to stare steadfast at one another...it is to look forward, in the same direction.”
Saint-Exupéry

laydownSally on March 4, 2008 at 10:57 pm

But of course my dear, but frankly Naval Intelligence is not my long suit.  Still, I’m not above salivating when encountering a JANE‘s reference book or just about anything written by Norman Polmar.  On a side note, you’d be surprised how many countries have subs.

Here’s an update on the events as they unfold.

This tidbit particularly interesting:

Venezuela has been suffering from shortages of milk, meat and other foodstuffs, which it imports from Colombia.

The old Guns or Butter question.  Evidently, Hugo’s spending spree on Guns has come at the cost of Butter for his people.

Things happen in far-away places.  This situation demands close scrutiny.


...for great justice

2eaqln4.jpg

Move_Zig on March 4, 2008 at 11:20 pm

No Zig!!

Not the Barracuda class...this was much, much earlier.

I need to read Polmars’ link and I’ll send you something on their earlier attempts.

This situation demands close scrutiny.

Agreed.


“To love is not to stare steadfast at one another...it is to look forward, in the same direction.”
Saint-Exupéry

laydownSally on March 4, 2008 at 11:55 pm

No Zig!!

Dammit.

I hate it when pretty avatars tell me No!


...for great justice

2eaqln4.jpg

Move_Zig on March 5, 2008 at 12:00 am

Sorry, next time I’ll just say, nah.

This is off topic, but Polmars article was a fun read.

Gramps (USN CWO4 Ret) was on the Virginia (Pearl Harbor), the San Francisco (South Pacific) and the USS Ranger (Korea). I loved reading his old books on their encounters.

Dad was a Marine (Viet Nam).

When my dad first joined the first thing he heard from grandpa was: WHAT??? YOU JOINED THE ***DAM MARINES!!!

Dad always got a good chuckle when he told me that story, but grandpa was proud of him, that’s without doubt.

That’s in part why I’ll kick the crap out of Anarchist Vegetarian if I ever have the pleasure of meeting the twit.


“To love is not to stare steadfast at one another...it is to look forward, in the same direction.”
Saint-Exupéry

laydownSally on March 5, 2008 at 12:16 am

I don’ know, Lucy? Buying state of the art tanks and aircraft is nowhere near the same thing as having trained and disciplined troops and pilots to operate them. Add to that the severely limited lines of access between Ven and Columbia that can move heavy armor and equipment. Plus the small fact that Columbia has a large, seasoned military that has been well blooded by 40 odd years of fighting and I think tHugo is about to bite off substantially more than he can chew. And it won’t take much of a defeat to turn the military against him, he is already on shaky ground with many of senior officers.


Una Salus Victus Nullam Sperare Salutem

2Hotel9 on March 5, 2008 at 05:20 am

That’s in part why I’ll kick the crap out of Anarchist Vegetarian if I ever have the pleasure of meeting the twit.

Heh-heh

Vasquez, you’re so bad!

and

I think Hugo is about to bite off substantially more than he can chew.

Let’s hope you are right.

I could make a better guess as to the outcome if I knew more about the terrain and situation.  Isn’t that area jungle and mountainous?  If so, those are about the worst places for armor, aside from city fighting.  If the area is low, rolling terrain or even desert, then that is fine for armor.

Army Doggies are generally familiar with the School of the Americas, where South American military leadership are taught US military doctrine.  If Chavez has only been in since 2000, he still should have a substantial cohort of US-trained officers and NCO’s unless, as part of his consolidation of power, he has purged them.

Another aspect to take into consideration might be what I call the Sarajevo Factor: does an armed clash here have the possibility of drawing other powers into a larger conflict? 

THIS JUST IN:

Chavez and his ally, Ecuadorean President Rafael Correa, have been seeking international condemnation of Colombia for the commando raid on Ecuadorean soil that killed a key Colombian rebel leader and other guerrillas Saturday.

They scored a victory of sorts in Washington on Wednesday, where the Organization of American States approved a resolution drafted jointly by Ecuador and Colombia declaring the attack a violation of Ecuador’s sovereignty. The resolution also called for OAS Secretary-General Jose Miguel Insulza to lead a delegation to both countries to held ease tensions.

The United States was the only OAS nation offering Colombia unqualified support. Many other countries worried openly about the attack inside Ecuador, which along with Venezuela has been accused by Colombian officials have providing refuge to leftist Colombian guerrillas.

Talk about unmitigated gall.  Check this out.

Documents show Chavez gave FARC $300 million, Colombia claims
-- The newspaper El Tiempo quoted Colombia’s police chief, Gen. Oscar Naranjo, as saying that the money transfer from Chavez to the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, or FARC, was detailed in documents on a computer that belonged to a rebel leader killed Saturday in a Colombian raid on a FARC encampment in Ecuador.

The newspaper said the documents also said that the group had given Chavez $50,000 when he was jailed in 1992 after a failed coup attempt.

So, from what I can see, Chaveze, the commie from Venezuela, was bankrolling the commie guerillas who were in Ecuador and raiding Columbia.  When Columbia did a cross-border raid and got the goods on both Chavez and Ecuador, they ran to the OAS to condemn that act of self defense?

That’s about par for the course.


...for great justice

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Move_Zig on March 5, 2008 at 07:40 pm

More from South O’ dee Border.

Send the Raptor to Colombia!

If Colombia and Venezuela were to come to fisticuffs over this latest South American crisis, the Bogota government could quickly find itself in trouble.

Colombia’s Army is both larger than Chavez’s and battle-hardened from years of fighting the FARC. They know the terrain, have greater mobility via their enormous helicopter fleet (including 90 modern Blackhawks), and are supported by a Colombian Air Force that specializes in close air support.

But Chavez would undoubtedly control the skies, or at least come close to it. The Venezuelan Air Force sports 80 or so operational fighters, including F-16s and Sukhoi-30s. Colombia’s Air Force, postured for the close air support mission, has only a single squadron of 20 Dassault Mirage V/Kfirs, airframes that wouldn’t last long in an aerial bar fight with their socialist opponents. Without freedom of the skies to clear the way for Colombian Tucanos and helicopters, Bogota’s advantage on the ground is sharply reduced.

Colombia is our ally, FARC is our mutual enemy, and Chavez has built an entire career as an anti-American posturer. So here’s a three-fer: Let’s have joint U.S.-Colombia exercises involving a squadron or two of our new F-22s. It would concentrate the mind of Chavez, who adores his new Sukhois. His prized fighter-force would soon become scrap metal against F-22s.

The presence of the Raptor would at once remind Chavez of his place in the hemispheric pecking order, help prevent a war, aid an ally, and reassure the American public of the value of the F-22. Let’s get those Raptors to Colombia!

Oh please oh please oh please


...for great justice

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Move_Zig on March 5, 2008 at 09:50 pm

There have been several purges of the Venezuelan military, that is one of the reasons tHugo has been losing support from senior Officers and NCOs.

The terrain in the coastal region is not bad, other than the near continuous rivers and swamps. Not exactly conducive to armor operations. Move in about 20 klicks and it is uniformly mountainous, with low grade roads and bridges. Don’t know if this link will actually work, but it will give you a rough idea of the ground situation.

tHugo has long given financial and material assistance to drug gangs in Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Peru, and Brazil. Thus buying their cooperation in pressuring those governments.


Una Salus Victus Nullam Sperare Salutem

2Hotel9 on March 6, 2008 at 05:31 am

2H9 points out brilliantly, IMO, how a lot of this is posturing.  I can imagine a few Germans laughed to themselves when they sold those tanks to Chavez, thinking “what good are they going to be in the jungle and the Andes?”

Bike Bubba on March 6, 2008 at 08:08 am

Oh, yea! They are excellent for urban pacification. Nothing puts the peons in their place like crushing their homes and churches with really big tanks. THAT has been work up to spec for tHugo for quite some time.


Una Salus Victus Nullam Sperare Salutem

2Hotel9 on March 6, 2008 at 10:24 am

"Mr. Chavez, have a drink with Mr. Molotov.” :^)

Bike Bubba on March 6, 2008 at 10:28 am

hehehe! That might account for why gasoline and kerosene are so strictly controlled in tHugo’s Socialist Workers Paradise.

tHugo is desperate. The food situation in Ven is getting very bad. He has to turn the people’s anger to some other direction, and that is going to be hard with the people in the western areas. FARC and the splinter groups have been rampaging through their villages for decades, and they see Columbia crushing them as a good thing. And the more people learn of tHugo’s direct connections to these drug gangs the less they are going to support him.


Una Salus Victus Nullam Sperare Salutem

2Hotel9 on March 6, 2008 at 10:38 am

And another drug gang supporting ass wipe is heard from. The money shot,"Mr Ortega said “we are breaking off relations because of the political terrorism” carried out by Colombian President Alvaro Uribe.”

You just can’t make up stuff this funny.


Una Salus Victus Nullam Sperare Salutem

2Hotel9 on March 6, 2008 at 04:54 pm
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