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Friday, January 26, 2007

Capital Gains Rate Cuts Increase Revenues

Earlier this week, (with some passionate, semantic assistance from Robert 108) I noted that the tiresome liberal line about “tax cuts” causing reduced federal revenues, budget deficits, is a lie.

The basis for that conclusion was an article by economist Daniel Clifton at the American Shareholder Association website, which was based on numbers provided by the Treasury Department and the Left’s favorite source of econometric mischief, the Congressional Budget Office.



Well, Daniel Clifton wasn’t done. In another article, using the same source and the same simple, arithmetic comparisons, he shows that cuts in the capital gains tax rate by the Bush administration have generated hugely increased amounts of capital gains tax revenues, contrary to CBO forecasts and contrary to the incessant braying of the liberal Left and the MSM.
The debate about the capital gains tax cut is over. When Congress passed the 15 percent reduction on capital gains all we heard from the naysayers is this will produce massive deficits. When Congress extended the 15 percent rate in 2006 we heard the same tired rhetoric - only louder. Now the new leadership want to repeal this tax cut to generate revenue to the federal government. Based on the new data they may want to reconsider whether repealing this tax cut will generate any revenue to the federal government.

Today’s CBO report puts the debate to bed. We were told by the Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) the capital gains tax cut would “cost” the Federal Treasury $5.4 billion in fiscal years 2003-2006. Thus, the initial CBO forecast (January 2004) forecasted capital gains revenue to be $42 billion in 2003, $46 billion in 2004, $52 billion in 2005, and $57 billion in 2006.

Well in what could now be considered the worst forecast in modern times we find out today capital gains tax collections were actually $51 billion in 2003, $72 billion in 2004, $97 billion in 2005, and $110 billion in 2006. For 2005 and 2006 collections nearly doubled the initial forecast.

Translation = total capital gains tax collections over this period were 68 percent higher than forecasted. But even more important, a loss of $5.4 billion is actually a gain of $133 billion. That is a swing of $138 billion in just short years since the January 2004 forecast. Oops!



In short, the 15% cut in the capital gains tax rate has generated not the $5.4 billion loss in tax revenues as was predicted, but a revenue increase of $133 billion instead.



This is particularly significant because during the Bush administration, for the first time in our history, more than half the households in America own some form of stock equities (individual stocks, mutual funds, 401-k, IRA, SEP plans, etc.).

Americans are getting RICHER, not poorer as the Left would have us believe. And as Americans’ wealth increases, so too does the amount of tax revenues flowing to government coffers.

Federal budget deficits, which are shrinking rapidly, are NOT caused by tax rate cuts, but by too much federal spending instead.

Cutting tax rates doesn’t reduce government revenues. Tax rate cuts INCREASE the amount of tax revenue collected. This ain’t rocket science. It’s arithmetic.

Throttling the neck of the goose to try and squeeze out more golden eggs simply doesn’t make a lot of sense.

Comments

Another conclusion that can be drawn from these data is that the US has actually become a country of investors.  If it were true, as the lefties tell us, that the investor class is a small, separate part of our society, the potential gain(or loss) from changing the capital gains tax rate would be correspondingly small.  In fact, it’s quite large precisely because the investor class is very representative of mainstream America.  Another leftie lie exposed!


Save America; boycott the MSM.

robert108 on January 26, 2007 at 10:47 am
Rob
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Nearly everyone is an investor these days, from the butcher with a 401k or an IRA to the day traders on the online stock trading websites.  Thus capital gains taxes don’t just apply to the rich, they apply to everyone.


When the people fear their government, there is tyranny; when the government fears the people, there is liberty.

-- Thomas Jefferson

Rob’s recently listened-to songs:

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Rob on January 26, 2007 at 11:51 am

Thus capital gains taxes don’t just apply to the rich, they apply to everyone.

Come on Rob, everyone knows that only the rich own stock.  These dividends that you speak of only apply to the uber-rich oil executives.

Bat: Your use of ‘math’ is just another one of the rich man’s tricks.  We know that everything that Bush does only benefits the rich… don’t you watch CBS news? /sarcasm

electnixon on January 26, 2007 at 12:10 pm

Nearly everyone is an investor these days, from the butcher with a 401k or an IRA

Absolutely, and since, unlike social security and many pension funds, the 401k/IRA holders could pick investments of their choosing, many did quite well in the 90s stock market runup (at least that didn’t wait for the .com crash).  The bulk of my retirement money comes from my IRA (rolled over from 401k) which is make money faster than I can withdraw it, according to the withdrawal schedule.


You don’t have to be a moron to be a liberal Democrat but it sure helps.

docdave on January 26, 2007 at 01:10 pm

Glad to see we all agree on just how important self-directed retirement investing actually is.  We’ll get back to that in a later post on Social Security.

My point here however, is to document the fact that the Left’s constant yammering about “tax cuts” (Yes… they are tax rate cuts, not tax cuts at all!) causing the federal deficit is so much ignorance-based BS from liberals anxious to raise taxes.


“Poverty of goods is easily cured; poverty of the mind is irreparable.”

Bat One on January 26, 2007 at 03:36 pm
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