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Wednesday, December 13, 2006

A Recipe for Victory in the Middle East

By Patrick Poole, in The American Thinker:

This is just brilliant:

Bush’s March to the (Mediterranean) Sea

Last week, the Iraq Study Group told the President and the nation that we need to prepare for retreat from Iraq. In their numerous recommendations, there are none that are directed towards actually winning the present conflict, and the mainstream media has done a yeoman’s job of convincing the American public that the war in unwinnable. It seems clear from comments made by policymakers of all stripes in recent days that a retreat from Iraq is inevitable.

This retreat, of course, plays right into the hands of the very terrorists we went to Iraq and Afghanistan to defeat. Furthermore, it strengthens the hand of our avowed enemies in the Middle East (the list too numerous to mention here). If the Iraq Study Group’s recommendations are implemented and their cut-and-run plans are followed, when the terrorists are in control of Iraq and our standing in the Middle East reduced to nil, the long-term consequences will prove disastrous.

Permit me, if you will, to make a completely out-of-Left-field suggestion, one I doubt will ever be entertained inside the Beltway, will quickly be the laughingstock of military planners at the Pentagon, and will certainly be anathema to the Manhattan media establishment and the Democratic congressional majority. I would like to suggest that there is a way for us to leave Iraq honorably, take back the offensive in the War on Terror, and weaken our enemies such that it will take more than a decade for them to recover. If our leaving Iraq is inevitable, why not make our departure to the west through Damascus and Beirut - taking out the military supporting the terror-sponsoring Assad regime and cutting the military hardware supply line to Hezb’allah along the way?

[...]

Perhaps the biggest military obstacle we face in Iraq is the fact that our military has not equipped to fight the war they have been placed into - an unpredictable insurgency supported by several nation-state and terrorist actors in an area where they have many natural advantages. Despite that, our armed forces have performed and adapted to the constantly changing situation on the ground with remarkable skill, determination, creativity and bravery. What the American military has proved is that whenever they have faced the enemy head-on (Operation Phantom Fury in Fallujah and the operations since this summer in Ramadi are good examples) they win. It is fair to say that when our armed forces are allowed to fight from their strengths on their own terms, victory has been decisive.

Prior to 9/11, the leadership of al-Qaeda was convinced that if we were drawn into a direct military confrontation with the Taliban and the al-Qaeda “mujahedeen” in Afghanistan in a style reminiscent of their victory against the Soviets more than a decade previous, they would beat the American superpower as decisively as they had defeated the Soviet one. Ninety days after 9/11, however, it was proven in dramatic fashion that they were wrong. Al-Qaeda’s chief strategist, Abu Musab al-Suri, was enraged when he heard about the 9/11 attacks, because he knew that al-Qaeda had engaged in a war they could not win. He knew that the very element that secured victory for the mujahedeen against the Soviets - that the Soviets were not able to secure air supremacy due to American Stinger missiles - would not be true in a battle with the Americans. Fortunately for us, he was right.

The Rush to Baghdad in 2003 proved again that when the America military was allowed to fight playing to their strengths and on their own terms, our opponents were utterly outmatched. In a few weeks, we took on the largest army in the Middle East, and in the face of overwhelming American power, the smarter among the Iraqi forces simply dissolved into the population; those slightly less intelligent that tried to take on our military were quickly engaged and dispatched with stunning and decisive speed.

In both the 2001 Push to Kabul and the 2003 Rush to Baghdad, our enemies were simply overwhelmed and vastly outmatched by the American military. Such would be true with any army in the Middle East, save one - Israel. The paper armies of the Arab world are no match for American might. And the past has shown that swift and spectacular victories against the Arab armies (e.g. the Six Day War) can paralyze the forces of aggression in the Middle East and can actually lead to peace in the region (e.g. the Camp David Accords).

[...]

Much like the Confederacy in 1862, America needs a plan that is based on winning the war in the future, rather than trying to avoid the military failures of the past. A change of vision for Iraq is clearly needed, but our leaders need to focus on what we must do to allow our military to win the War on Terror, not debate the easiest way for politicians to lose it. Just like the audacious strategy proposed by Stonewall Jackson, what we need is to harness the creative and lethal genius of the collective American military mind. It is out there somewhere.

Read the whole thing.

This is the real winning strategy, not only for now, but for the next ten years, during which we can put more long-range economic strategies in effect: Weaning ourselves off of Middle East terrorist oil.
It’s a long article, but well worth the read.

Comments

Mr. Poole said

In both the 2001 Push to Kabul and the 2003 Rush to Baghdad, our enemies were simply overwhelmed and vastly outmatched by the American military. Such would be true with any army in the Middle East, save one - Israel. The paper armies of the Arab world are no match for American might. And the past has shown that swift and spectacular victories against the Arab armies (e.g. the Six Day War) can paralyze the forces of aggression in the Middle East and can actually lead to peace in the region (e.g. the Camp David Accords).

Or it could turn out like Afghanistan with a multi-year insurgency or Iraq with a civil war. I suspect that the folks making the decisions won’t be relying on strategies based on such utopian and grandiose thinking.


"There are different kinds of truths for different kinds of people. There are truths appropriate for children; truths that are appropriate for students; truths that are appropriate for educated adults; and truths that are appropriate for highly educated adults, and the notion that there should be one set of truths available to everyone is a modern democratic fallacy. It doesn’t work.”

Irving Kristol

MikeAdamson on December 13, 2006 at 04:41 pm

A willful misreading.  Poole’s entire concept is to overwhelmingly defeat, then move on, removing dictators as we go.  I have long been a fan of this approach.  I wish nation-building would work in the ME, but it doesn’t.  It might have worked in Iraq if we had done it in 1991, but not now.  Putting the entire region on the same power level is the goal of this strategy, not getting bogged down in any one country.
Notice that the Israeli victories contained no nation-building, just quick victory over the aggressors.


Save America; boycott the MSM.

robert108 on December 13, 2006 at 05:58 pm

A willful misreading.

You can read minds now...very impressive.

Poole’s entire concept is to overwhelmingly defeat, then move on, removing dictators as we go.

Well yes, I did get that part which leads me to believe that you can’t read minds very well after all. I understand the concept of sending American forces through target nations in the Middle East to topple dictators and eliminate support for international terrorist organisations. I’m saying that this sort of idea has always played well in certain circles but unfortunately for you it just doesn’t play well in places where the real decisions are taken and plans are made.

Notice that the Israeli victories contained no nation-building, just quick victory over the aggressors.

True enough in the 20th century but their record in this century isn’t up to those results. It would all make for a good book if nothing else.


"There are different kinds of truths for different kinds of people. There are truths appropriate for children; truths that are appropriate for students; truths that are appropriate for educated adults; and truths that are appropriate for highly educated adults, and the notion that there should be one set of truths available to everyone is a modern democratic fallacy. It doesn’t work.”

Irving Kristol

MikeAdamson on December 13, 2006 at 07:19 pm

True enough in the 20th century That was what I was referring to. but their record in this century isn’t up to those results. It would all make for a good book if nothing else.

I’m saying that this sort of idea has always played well in certain circles but unfortunately for you it just doesn’t play well in places where the real decisions are taken and plans are made.

I really don’t give a crap how it “plays”; I want us to win, and this would be one way to do it.  If you linked to the article, you must have seen the historical precedent for this type of strategy.

Btw; sorry I hurt your feelings; no, after some reflection, I’m not sorry at all.  Snark back at ya!  If you want to play that way, expect to get it back in spades.  If you want to be polite, be polite.  Otherwise, what goes around comes around.


Save America; boycott the MSM.

robert108 on December 13, 2006 at 08:06 pm
Avatar for Bat One

True enough in the 20th century but their record in this century isn’t up to those results

MikeA,

In all the time that I have read your posts and comments here at SA, this is without doubt the silliest thing you’ve ever written!  That the date on a calendar would have anything at all to do with the quality of a military victory is absurd.

The difference between previous Israeli military victories and their most recent campaign against Hezb’allah is the fact that this time the Israeli leader, P.M. Olmert, was a “moderate,” a life-long bureaucrat, and a man who epitomizes the very inoffensive, “don’t be such a bully to your avowed enemies” sort of advice that people like you have been spouting.  Instead of having as his primary concern the utter, total defeat of those who would make war upon his country, like previous war-time Israeli leaders, Olmert tried to be gentle and sufficiently inoffensive so as not to wound the sensibilities of those, lie you, Mike, who now take note of the ineffectual nature of his military actions.

The only thing wrong with the military actions of the Israelis in this, the 21st century, is that they were listening to the advice of the wrong people… and that includes the US State Department, as well as you.

Bat One on December 13, 2006 at 08:17 pm

Bat One

That the date on a calendar would have anything at all to do with the quality of a military victory is absurd.

Well I’m pretty sure that the battle with Hez took place in this century and that the Israeli victories of which r108 enthuses took place in the last so I’m not sure why that’s so silly. It’s not like I’m crediting the 20th century with magical properties conducive to Israeli success or anything...time frames are what they are.

You could be right about the unwillingness of moderate leaders to throw everything they have at the enemy although it’s also reasonable to consider that times have changed as they are wont to do and that the tactics of regular military outfits may not have caught up to the insurgent tactics they face today. I’m certainly no military expert but I know that things rarely remain static and those that evolve and adapt quickest and most efficiently gain the advantage...institutional militaries are bureaucratic creatures and I expect that the old ways of doing things are ingrained and slow to shake.


"There are different kinds of truths for different kinds of people. There are truths appropriate for children; truths that are appropriate for students; truths that are appropriate for educated adults; and truths that are appropriate for highly educated adults, and the notion that there should be one set of truths available to everyone is a modern democratic fallacy. It doesn’t work.”

Irving Kristol

MikeAdamson on December 13, 2006 at 08:55 pm

MikeA: It’s the co-opting of world media by the terrorists to disseminate their propaganda.  The point of citing Israel’s aggressive military policy was to show its effectiveness, just like the author used Stonewall Jackson’s strategy during the Civil War as an example.  Ultimately, to secure the victory we can win rather easily on the military level, we will have to defeat the terrorist propaganda efforts.  Newt Gingrich was so right.  The real GWOT lies just as much in the propaganda area as it does in the military area, maybe more.  IMO, the strategy and tactics described in this article will work very well, if only they are implemented and carried to completion.  We will have to do it sooner or later, and the longer we wait, the more difficult it will be.


Save America; boycott the MSM.

robert108 on December 13, 2006 at 09:07 pm
Avatar for Bat One

MikeA,

You seem to be arguing against yourself here.  Oddly.  If “the old ways of doing things are ingrained and slow to shake” as you say, the Israeli military ought to have simply kicked ass… again.

As I noted before, it wasn’t a change in the military that accounts for the difference (nor a change in the calendar).  Rather it was a change in the strategy and the application of military force.  And THAT change is solely reflective of the political leadership.  Hezb’allah survived because the Israeli military was not allowed to destroy the terrorist organization, a decision made not by the military commanders, but by the civilians who set national policy in a democracy.

The self-styled “moderates” won out over the hard core warriors.  And now both Israel, and Lebanon (or what’s left of it) will have to live with the consequences.

Which also happens to prove Patrick Poole’s point as well.  If the US had cleaned out the Bekaa Valley two years ago, as some of us were suggesting, the terrorists of Hezb’allah would not now be on the brink of overturning the recent Lebanese election and effectively taking over the country.  But then you moderate, negotiation type guys always seem to have a problem with untoward consequences and the distinction between forests and trees.

Bat One on December 13, 2006 at 09:11 pm

Bat: Not to mention a real problem with actually taking action that will secure victory.


Save America; boycott the MSM.

robert108 on December 13, 2006 at 09:25 pm

B1...I agree with you that the Israelis did not let loose as one might have expected although at the same time I think the Israeli military leadership was surprised at their strategy’s relative lack of effectiveness.At any rate, I am not arguing against that as a factor so much as suggesting an additional consideration that may be at play...I don’t know why youse guys insist on a single explanation for everything as my world is too complex for that. I wish situations could be so easily broken down and explained...the either/or world is much easier to live in.


"There are different kinds of truths for different kinds of people. There are truths appropriate for children; truths that are appropriate for students; truths that are appropriate for educated adults; and truths that are appropriate for highly educated adults, and the notion that there should be one set of truths available to everyone is a modern democratic fallacy. It doesn’t work.”

Irving Kristol

MikeAdamson on December 13, 2006 at 09:30 pm
Avatar for Bat One

R108,

The problem is that victory by its very definition is an inequality of result.  Victory is an endorsement of inequality and an implicit lack of moral equivalence.  Victory means that one side WAS better than the other, and that explicit and implicit inequality of result is anathema to those for whom moral equivalence is a kind of secular religious creed.

Want to drive a leftist absolutely livid with rage?  Insist to them that might makes right, and to the victor go the spoils.  Of course, they actually believe both of those old cliches.  After all, cliches get to be cliche for a reason.  But only if they are on the winning end of the equation.

If not, they are absolutely horrified at your lack of nuance and sensitivity.

Me?  I’m just amused by their oblivious and tedious hypocrisy.

Bat One on December 13, 2006 at 09:46 pm

Bat: Right on!  In addition, tell the aforementioned liberal that there is actual right and wrong, and that the right always wins in the end.  Good and evil work, as well.  It’s a great explanation for the triumph and spread of Christianity.


Save America; boycott the MSM.

robert108 on December 13, 2006 at 10:27 pm

..the either/or world is much easier to live in.

That is the nature of victory in war.  If you want the morally relative version, look at Korea.  It has been a stalemate for over fifty years, all for a lack of victory in the original conflict.  Now, there is a chance for the bad guys to win.  If the good guys don’t go what it takes to win, the bad guys will beat them.  It always takes a better set of good guys to get the ultimate victory; it takes virtue.  There is no virtue in either defeat or stalemate(standoff).


Save America; boycott the MSM.

robert108 on December 13, 2006 at 10:31 pm

Me?  I’m just amused by their oblivious and tedious hypocrisy.

It’s healthy to find the amusement in things...I’m amused by those who assume that because they know what they want they can have it, that because they know what they should do they can do it and that there is no difference between believing there are no answers and believing that all of the answers just aren’t knowable.

Oh to be “young” and “conservative” again. Night gents.


"There are different kinds of truths for different kinds of people. There are truths appropriate for children; truths that are appropriate for students; truths that are appropriate for educated adults; and truths that are appropriate for highly educated adults, and the notion that there should be one set of truths available to everyone is a modern democratic fallacy. It doesn’t work.”

Irving Kristol

MikeAdamson on December 13, 2006 at 10:37 pm

r108...I was referring to the actual material world in which we live and not the romantic world you read about.


"There are different kinds of truths for different kinds of people. There are truths appropriate for children; truths that are appropriate for students; truths that are appropriate for educated adults; and truths that are appropriate for highly educated adults, and the notion that there should be one set of truths available to everyone is a modern democratic fallacy. It doesn’t work.”

Irving Kristol

MikeAdamson on December 13, 2006 at 10:39 pm

MikeA: It doesn’t surprise me that our resident Euro-style cynic thinks that victory against terrorism is “romantic”.  Is it equally “romantic” for the radical Islamists to think that they can win?  It has to be one or the other; or do you practice that magical thinking that we will just exist in some sort of standoff forever?
Peace without victory.  Yeah, that’s realistic!


Save America; boycott the MSM.

robert108 on December 14, 2006 at 07:08 am

It doesn’t surprise me that our resident Euro-style cynic thinks that victory against terrorism is “romantic”.

I don’t think it is either so stop putting words in my mouth...it’s so dishonest.


"There are different kinds of truths for different kinds of people. There are truths appropriate for children; truths that are appropriate for students; truths that are appropriate for educated adults; and truths that are appropriate for highly educated adults, and the notion that there should be one set of truths available to everyone is a modern democratic fallacy. It doesn’t work.”

Irving Kristol

MikeAdamson on December 14, 2006 at 07:10 am

MikeA: So, what did you mean by your reference to “...the romantic world you read about.”?  This thread is about a strategy for victory over terrorism in the ME.  What’s the “romantic” part about that, then?  Please elucidate.
You are probably safe, in that this strategy will probably not be put into practice.  Isn’t that enough for you?


Save America; boycott the MSM.

robert108 on December 14, 2006 at 07:28 am

You are probably safe, in that this strategy will probably not be put into practice.

Of course it won’t...the idea is entertainment plain and simple. The fact that you provide the story with apparent seriousness just goes to show how successful the “conservative” punditry industry has become.

This thread is about a strategy for victory over terrorism in the ME.  What’s the “romantic” part about that, then?

That the American military would consider your Middle Eastern tour for more than a nanosecond...it’s the stuff of fiction, not reality.


"There are different kinds of truths for different kinds of people. There are truths appropriate for children; truths that are appropriate for students; truths that are appropriate for educated adults; and truths that are appropriate for highly educated adults, and the notion that there should be one set of truths available to everyone is a modern democratic fallacy. It doesn’t work.”

Irving Kristol

MikeAdamson on December 14, 2006 at 07:38 am

MikeA: You are so threatened by a victory strategy in the ME?  My, my, my!  Well, I guess it’s time to ban all things you consider “fiction”, then.  Underneath every leftie lurks a totalitarian dictator.  Even the idea of victory should be eliminated, I guess, unless it’s victory for the terrorists.
If the military isn’t considering such a strategy, it’s only because the propaganda war by the terrorists in the MSM has been so successful.  Enjoy your snark while you can, then.


Save America; boycott the MSM.

robert108 on December 14, 2006 at 07:43 am

You are so threatened by a victory strategy in the ME? Well, I guess it’s time to ban all things you consider “fiction”, then.

I’m no more threatened by your victory strategy than I am by the Chuck Norris or Jean Claude Van Damme movies...they’re fun and harmless. I also think that your banning comment is you projecting...I didn’t say we should ban fiction, we just shouldn’t confuse it with reality.


"There are different kinds of truths for different kinds of people. There are truths appropriate for children; truths that are appropriate for students; truths that are appropriate for educated adults; and truths that are appropriate for highly educated adults, and the notion that there should be one set of truths available to everyone is a modern democratic fallacy. It doesn’t work.”

Irving Kristol

MikeAdamson on December 14, 2006 at 09:20 am

MikeA: Despite your dismissive treatment of it, this is a workable strategy on the military level, and will eventually be employed, when it becomes absolutely necessary.  Meanwhile, while the cynical among us insist that there is some romantic philosophical way to have a peaceful world without victory(an extremely unrealistic view, IMO), the terrorist, unhindered by such philosophical nuance, continue in their efforts to defeat us.  Right now, they are the realistic ones, in that they know that the only way they can get what they want is to win.  Some of us seem to have forgotten that reality.


Save America; boycott the MSM.

robert108 on December 14, 2006 at 09:25 am

Meanwhile, while the cynical among us insist that
there is some romantic philosophical way to have a peaceful world without
victory(an extremely unrealistic view, IMO), the terrorist, unhindered by
such philosophical nuance, continue in their efforts to defeat us.

I agree with your point here although I’ve never heard the Quakers et al described as cynical before. Be that as it may, I’m sure that the resolution to the problem the West faces will come from the place successful solutions always originate...that great big mushy realistic middle in between the two extremes of utopian denialism and romantic adventurism.


"There are different kinds of truths for different kinds of people. There are truths appropriate for children; truths that are appropriate for students; truths that are appropriate for educated adults; and truths that are appropriate for highly educated adults, and the notion that there should be one set of truths available to everyone is a modern democratic fallacy. It doesn’t work.”

Irving Kristol

MikeAdamson on December 14, 2006 at 10:51 am

...although I’ve never heard the Quakers et al described as cynical before.

And you didn’t from me, either, as you well know.  I was referring to people like you, not a small religious group.  Duh. I don’t include the Quakers in with the EuroCynics.

..that great big mushy realistic middle in between the two extremes of utopian denialism and romantic adventurism.

I’m not sure what you mean by that, but I’m sure it’s denigrating to me and self-serving to you.


Save America; boycott the MSM.

robert108 on December 14, 2006 at 10:55 am

Okay on the Quakers but I have no idea what a Eurocynic is...perhaps it’s a term from The American Thinker or World Net Daily? As for the middle in between the two extremes, at one end you have those who don’t believe that the problem can be solved through violence...I admire this stance but I don’t think it’s practically possible...while on the other end you have those who believe that all that is needed is the application of military force. I don’t admire that stance and I also don’t think it’s practically possible. In the middle you find a variety of approaches...military, economic, diplomatic...which are utilised by reasonable people using reasonable methods. We won’t beat the terrorists by holding hands and singing Kumbaya and we won’t beat them by launching an “America Takes the Middle East” tour...those are the wishful thinking answers from wishful thinkers. You posit approaches of two types...either military or nonmilitary...and you think the latter doomed to failure and the former the only answer. I say we can’t choose one or the other because neither will work on their own...they’re both extreme in their lack of practicality. I hope that clarifies.


"There are different kinds of truths for different kinds of people. There are truths appropriate for children; truths that are appropriate for students; truths that are appropriate for educated adults; and truths that are appropriate for highly educated adults, and the notion that there should be one set of truths available to everyone is a modern democratic fallacy. It doesn’t work.”

Irving Kristol

MikeAdamson on December 14, 2006 at 11:18 am

...and you think the latter doomed to failure and the former the only answer.

Again you misrepresent my view in this subject.  I have said to you many times that the military victory must be combined with long term economic strategy; neither is sufficient by itself, but the military must come first.  I think I detailed this on this very thread, in fact.  However, it’s about the sequence of operations: military first, followed by economic. After the victory, let the diplomats negotiate the details from a position of strength.  Seems elementary to me.


Save America; boycott the MSM.

robert108 on December 14, 2006 at 03:44 pm
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