We might STILL go to a brokered convention, but the sun will have to rise in the west
Real Clear Politics says McCain already has 724 delegates. To win the nomination he needs another 467 delegates.
These are the races yet to be fought in primaries as of Saturday Morning. Since I have been a Huckabee Supporter I’m giving him everything I can give him on paper. As of this writing according to Drudge Huck won Kansas. The math however isn’t with him. Winning would have to be at convention since it is impossible for him to accumulate enough delegates by votes.`
Louisiana 02/09 47 C Huckabee
Washington 02/09 40 McCain
Kansas 02/09 39 C Huckabee WON
Virginia 02/12 63 W Huckabee
Maryland 02/12 37 C McCain
DC 02/12 19 WC McCain
Wisconsin 02/19 40 10 Huckabee 15 McCain
Puerto Rico 02/24 23 McCain
Texas 03/04 140 Huckabee
Ohio 03/04 88 30 Huckabee 50 McCain
Rhode Island 03/04 20 McCain
Vermont 03/04 17 W McCain
Mississippi 03/10 39 Huckabee
Pennsylvania 04/22 74 C McCain
North Carolina 05/06 69 Huckabee
Indiana 05/06 57 Huckabee
Nebraska 05/13 33 Huckabee
Hawaii 05/16 20 C McCain
Kentucky 05/20 45 C Huckabee
Oregon 05/20 30 C McCain
Idaho 05/27 32 McCain
New Mexico 06/03 32 C McCain
South Dakota 06/03 27 C McCain
w - winner takes all c - closed primary
If everything flew just right Huckabee would still be far behind but McCain would not have enough votes to lock up the nomination. He would be 61 short. It could go to a brokered convention at least for the first vote. There are a few hundred uncommitted delegates in the Republican Party. They vote as they wish. We don’t call them super delegates. But they can tilt things. They could lock it up for McCain if they all went for him on the first ballot. But that isn’t certain. If they all stepped back it would then mean on second ballot all Thompson, Gulliani, Paul, Huckabee and Romney delegates could vote however they pleased. So, while it looks like a lock for McCain, there is an outside statistical possibility that things could go to convention undecided. I’m not hoping or holding my breath, just doing the math and I hope I got it right.
Needed 1191
McCain
724 Today
406 still will likely win
1130 going to convention (61 short)
Huckabee
196 Today
555 Possible to win
751 going to convention
Romney
281 going to convention
Paul 4 Going to convention
It could be St. Paul in the fall. And, there’s lots of things that could happen. No one talks about it but 72 year old men sometimes become incapacitated or even change worlds. I don’t wish that on anyone, but don’t think for a second that this deal is settled till after November’s election.
I wonder what happens if something happened to McCain between September in St Paul and November?
Anyone Know?
I’m under no illusions, but a great deal of time is out there. Lots of things could happen and that convention might be a doozy if things went south for McCain in any way between now and September. One big mistake the Dems would make is to so damage and demonize him that a real force might emerge in St.Paul in a brokered convention.
I’m just sayin…..


