Say Anything Blog

The “Grim Milestone” being the next thousand mark, 4,000 in this case, in U. S. casualties in Iraq.

Each and every lost life in Iraq is a tragedy.

But how do those losses (800/year, 4,000 in total) compare to historic loss rates?

Gateway Pundit has an excellent post from March 19th on this subject, in which he shows that our loss rate relative to our major wars and battles is positively miniscule (0.5% of the daily loss rate for the Battle of the Bulge).

I propose we compare our losses in Iraq to our previous counter insurgency of the same scale.

Philippine-American War/Insurrection
1899 - 1913 U. S. Casualties (Dead and Wounded) 5,000

The casualty rate for the Philippine-American War/Insurrection thus works out to about 357/year or about 1 (0.97) per day, as opposed to the 800/year, 2.19/day fatality rate in Iraq.

The difference in rates is easily explained by the differences in the nature of the two insurgencies.  The Philippine Archipelago was effectively isolated and was not a densely populated urban environment.  Iraq, by contrast, shares two long land borders with nations hostile to the United States, and most of the heavy fighting (and losses) have been in urban areas.  The difference in combat conditions are such that most historians would have expected a five to tenfold increase in loss rates for Iraq as opposed to the Philippine Insurrection. Thankfully, the combination of improved tactics, improved body armor, and greatly improved trauma treatment have more than compensated for the operational challenges.

For further reference, it’s worth noting that the first five years of the Iraq War/Insurgency have resulted in less loss of life among the Armed Forces than the first five years of “peacetime operations” in the Clinton Administration (5,199).

I’m not sure where the left got the impression that wars are susceptible to time lines and calendar deadlines.  Yet they seem to have.  This idiocy was recently on display as the usual idiots marked the fifth anniversary of the re-comemcement of hostilities with Iraq.

My reading of history certainly indicates that warfare knows no such limitations.  To take just a few examples:

Reconquista (722 - 1492)
Hundred Years’ War (1337 - 1453)
War of the Roses (1455 - 1487
Thirty Years War (1618 - 1648)
The Seven Years War (1756 - 1763)
Revolutionary War (American, 1775 - 1783)
French Revolution (1789 - 1799)
Napoleonic Wars (1803 - 1815)

Five years is so long?  These folks believe we should take them seriously!

”5 YEARS TO[sic] MANY” and “Bring the Troops Home.”

What about the troops in Germany and Japan (there for the last 63 years)?  What about the troops in Korea (55 years)?  What about the Phillipine-American War and subsequent occupation (1899-1946)?

No, the proposition is absurd on its face.

And for those who wish to continue the historical examination, there’s more beneath the fold.

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Heh.

(more...)

That’s Battlestar Galactica for the luddites out there…

Heh.

U.S. Army Isn’t Broken After All, Military Experts Say
Wednesday, March 19, 2008
By Jennifer Griffin
FoxNews

WASHINGTON, D.C. —  One year ago, as President Bush decided to send more troops to Iraq, the conventional wisdom in Washington among opponents of the war was that the U.S. Army was on the verge of breaking.

In December 2006 former Secretary of State and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Colin Powell warned, “The active Army is about broken.”

Ret. Gen. Barry McCaffrey, in a much-cited memo to West Point colleagues, wrote: “My bottom line is that the Army is unraveling, and if we don’t expend significant national energy to reverse that trend, sometime in the next two years we will break the Army just like we did during Vietnam.”

Army Maj. Gen. Bob Scales, the former head of the Army War College, agreed. He wrote in an editorial in the Washington Times on March 30:

“If you haven’t heard the news, I’m afraid your Army is broken, a victim of too many missions for too few soldiers for too long. ... Today, anecdotal evidence of collapse is all around.”

But now, one year later, Scales has done an about-face. He says that he was wrong. Despite all the predictions of imminent collapse, the U.S. Army and the combat brigades have proven to be surprisingly resilient.

...waiting for our own protagonists of this argument to step up for their helping…

Any time now…

Hat Tip: Hot Air

Twenty-seven years after its first flight, the last F-117 “Stealth Fighter” will fly to Davis Mothan for storage next month.

Last F-117 Flies Off To The Boneyard
by Jim Dunnigan
Strategy Page

...

The first F-117 flew in 1981, and 59 were eventually built. Six crashed due to non-combat causes, and one was brought down due to the efforts of a clever Serb air defense officer, who exploited the chinks in the F-117s stealth technology. But starting in 1989, when an F-117 participated in the invasion of Panama, the aircraft proved its worth. The usual bomb load for the 24 ton aircraft, was two one-ton laser guided bombs, in an internal bomb bay. The F-117 almost always attacked at night, and took out a disproportionate number of targets compared to non-stealth bombers.

Nothing lasts forever (except the B-52)...

What does it take to alter one’s world view?

I have often mused that our society has padded the corners and edges of life to excess. The most common path to wisdom is via a series of collisions with the sharp edges and corners of life, and that path to wisdom only works when those corners and edges leave a lasting mark.

The Last Centurion gives us a glimpse of what life without that padding might be like.

2019 marks the congruence of two natural disasters and a political disaster. The first of the natural disasters is the H5N1 “Bird Flu” virus mutating into an airborn human to human disease and in the process doing a recreation, only worse, of the 1918 Spanish Influenza pandemic. The second of the natural disasters is the onset of a “little ice age.” Now either of these on their own would be very bad. Taken together, much worse. But, wait, you say, what of the third disaster, the political one?

While the history is well documented, most folks don’t realize that every famine since the end of the 19th Century has been either a wholly produced phenomenon of politcs, or greatly exacerbated by politics. So too is the “Time of Suckage” (as our narrator Bandit Six calls the time) made to suck even more by politics.

How bad?

In excess of 70% of world population does not make the Darwinian cut.

Do any human societies survive? Yes, read the book to find out which do, which don’t, and why.

Why title a book about the apocolypse The Last Centurion?

Well, it’s a time of suckage, but it is not the apocolypse. It’s not even a global dark age, though it will be a dark age indeed for vast tracts of the globe. But mostly it’s because our protagonist has a little problem.

He and his command survived the pandemic. His army pulled out, with their kit neatly loggered, and left him to guard it. He, and his company cum rump battalion, are stuck in a newly created howling wilderness sitting atop a treasure trove of beans, bullets, and gas which the survivors around them covet.

What happens when you leave a supremely competent commander with an impossible mission and a worse situation?

The Last Centurion is what happens.




The Last Centurion

By John Ringo

Published by Baen Books

E-ARC Available via Webscriptions

Sample Chapters available here

Centurions were the guardians of Rome. At the height of the Roman Republic there were over five thousand qualified Roman Centurions in the Legions. To be a Centurion required that, in a mostly illiterate society, one be able to read and write clearly, to be able to convey and create orders, to be capable of not only performing every skill of a Roman soldier but teach every skill of a Roman soldier.

Becoming a Centurion required intense physical ability, courage beyond the norm, years of sacrifice and a total devotion to the philosophy which was Rome. When Rome fell to barbarian invaders, there were less than five hundred qualified Centurions. Not because Rome had fewer people but because it had fewer willing to make the sacrifices. And the last Centurions left their shields in the heather and took a barbarian bride . . .

We are . . . The Last Centurions.

And this Rome SHALL NOT FALL!

General David Patraeus’ next report to the President and Congress is due in April.  While touring with Admiral Mike Mullen (CJCS), General Patraeus provided some insights as to his forthcomming testimony:

General Petraeus Describes Factors Affecting Iraq Assessment
Monday, 03 March 2008
By Jim Garamone
American Forces Press Service

...

The security trend lines all are favorable, the general said. “Attacks have continued to go down. We’ve had a five-month period consistently of a level of attacks we’ve not seen since spring of 2005,” he said. “This past week was the fourth-lowest since October 2004.”

Petraeus and U.S. Ambassador to Iraq Ryan C. Crocker will explain why they believe attacks have come down when they report to President Bush and Congress.

The general said he is encouraged by the statistics and what he sees around the country. “In fact, the level of attacks has come down in recent weeks below a level we thought might be the ‘irreducible minimum,’” he said.

Petraeus said he also will consider the progress Iraqi security forces have made. “The Iraqi surge of 2007 was well over 100,000,” he said citing the growth of the nation’s Army and police force.

Rumors of a defeat for American arms, it would seem, were premature.

Read the whole thing.

Hat Tip: Hot Air

But yesterday the word of McCain might
Have stood against the world; now stands he there,
And none so poor to do him reverence.
0 masters, if I were disposed to stir
Your hearts and minds to mutiny and rage,
I should do Obama wrong, and Clinton wrong,
Who, you all know, are honourable men :
I will not do them wrong; I rather choose
To wrong McCain, to wrong myself and you,
Than I will wrong such honourable men.
But here ‘s a parchment with the seal of McCain ;
I found it in his closet, ‘tis his Platform:
Let but the commons hear this testament
Which, pardon me, I do not mean to read
And they would go and kiss McCains wounds
And dip their napkins in his sacred blood,
Yea, beg a hair of him for memory,
And, dying, mention it within their wills,
Bequeathing it as a rich legacy
Unto their issue.

Have patience, gentle friends, I must not read it;
It is not meet you know how McCAin loves you.
You are not wood, you are not stones, but men;
And, being men, hearing the platform of McCAin,
It will inflame you, it will make you mad : ‘
Tis good you know not that you are his heirs;
For, if you should, O, what would come of it !

My crystal ball, informed by my hopes for our Republic, proved unreliable.

Even worse, we’re all stuck with Ron Paul for at least another two years.

Time to buy stock in aluminum foil.

Since so many SayAnyThingSinister types are demonstrably reading comprehension challenged, herewith is presented the abridged version of my earlier FIS Follies post just for them.

(Click for full size)

One such better¹ man, who has served our Republic faithfully and well for thirty years, recently retired. Colonel Eddie S. Ray, USMC will now append a (Ret), and return to civilian life.



For those not familiar with U. S. Medals and awards, the top leftmost medal on Colonel Ray’s tunic is the Navy Cross², awarded to then Captain Ray for bravery in action during operation Desert Storm.

Thank you for your service, Colonel, and we hope your retirement is as personally satisfying as your service has been valuable to a grateful nation. (more...)

...to “fairness, openness, and freedom of expression” in deeds vice words:

Duke’s boundless chutzpah
By Clarice Feldman
The American Thinker
01 March 2008

After tarring and feathering and discriminating against the Duke lacrosse members at a critical juncture in their college careers and lives, the Duke Administration has gone to court trying to shut down the players’ website, which contains the pleadings in their recently filed case against the university and a compendium of press coverage about the case.

The website seems well within ethical bounds and the pleadings by the University cite no authority to suggest otherwise. As K.C Johnson observes:

[E]thics rules specifically allow attorneys to make public statements countering negative publicity “not initiated by the lawyer or the lawyer’s client.”

Given the copious negative statements by Duke officials and especially by Duke faculty members about the unindicted lacrosse players, it’s hard to imagine a clearer example of negative publicity “not initiated by the lawyer or the lawyer’s client.” It’s not hard, however, to imagine why Duke would want to ensure that the lawsuit receives as little publicity as possible.

On the assumption that the local courts have finally grown chary of giving Duke assistance in further depriving these students of their constitutional rights, I assume that the university’s request will be denied, and draw your attention to this conduct and the team’s website to help thwart this and further such nonsense by making it utterly counterproductive..

This is a case which urgently needs the disinfectant benefits of the sunshine of public exposure.  Follow the links and judge for yourself.

of information on affairs military for our soi disant local military experts to the left, courtesy of Wretchard.

FM 3-0 Operations for SAMS Students

1. The world is full of bad people. Mind you, not everyone is bad, but there are enough of them out there that we have to arm ourselves. Over the years, we’ve done a pretty good job of that. When the bad people scare us or hurt us, we have to whack them. This is hard, because you want to try and whack the bad people where they live and not where we live. Naturally, the bad people don’t want to get whacked, and they feel pretty smug because we aren’t mean enough to whack all of them at once. So we have to go over to where they live and whack them carefully. That’s why we have an Army and not just a Navy and an Air Force with trillions of dollars worth of super weapons. We don’t get such expensive weapons, because we break them a lot more rapidly. Even worse, the bad people can get close enough that they can whack Soldiers even though they get whacked a lot more.

2. Whacking bad people is dangerous. It’s also hard. It’s easier and safer to whack the bad people if you do it from the air or the ocean. That’s because the bad people can’t afford the super weapons that do stuff from there. That’s why we have to be nice to the Navy and Air Force; so they will whack bad people with great enthusiasm. Unfortunately, sometimes the Navy and Air Force get too enthusiastic at whacking people and they hurt Army Soldiers and other not so bad people that ended up in the wrong place. That’s why we have to spend a lot of effort telling them where we are and what we need them to do. We also try to stay out of their way when they are too busy whacking cities and countries and stuff. We also have to do a lot of explaining to civilian bureaucrats about what they need to do to clean up after the bad people get whacked. This is called “unified action” but it’s really like going over to the neighbors to apologize for breaking their window.

3. What makes this really hard is sorting out the not so bad people from the bad people. We try to whack the bad guys and miss the good guys. Of course, the not so bad people are all upset that we are over there whacking people. They want us to go back to where we live and leave them alone, unless the bad people are whacking them as well. They tend to go postal unless we help them keep their families alive and well. The best way to do that is to let their politicians and police do it while they stay out of our way. Unfortunately, their politicians and police screw this up a lot so we have to take time out from whacking the bad guys (or tricking the Air Force and Navy into doing that) and help out the not so bad people around us. Even though they won’t like us, sometimes they help us to find the bad people. This also helps us calm down the Air Force guys who would whack everybody at once. This is called “full spectrum operations.”

4. Even though we don’t get the super weapons that the Air Force and Navy get, we still have a lot of stuff and Soldiers. This is called “combat power.” None of this stuff is worth a nickel if somebody isn’t in charge. Hopefully they know what they are doing. When they do, it’s called leadership and it’s really important because most Soldiers just want somebody intelligent to take charge and get them back home in one piece. Inside the Army, we squabble about which part of the Army gets the most stuff. After a while, some really important general comes down and tells us to knock it off and “cooperate”. If we don’t, the bad people will whack us and even the Air Force won’t be able to bail us out. This is called “combined arms.”

5. The Army has a lot of processes that it is still trying to figure out. Don’t worry about these things. Just be happy if somebody actually gets you an order that you can understand in time for you to do something about it. If not, at least you can blame the higher headquarters. Most of the time, Soldiers are happy if they get fed, occasionally get some sleep and a shower and things aren’t too SNAFU. Soldiers also tend to be lazy unless they are motivated. This is “battle command.”

6. Really important generals are Soldiers too. They just get less sleep than the ordinary Soldiers. They have to try and figure out how to straighten out the big mess that all the politicians made. At the same time they have to decide how to whack the bad people and keep the not so bad people from going postal. If they do a good job, they get sent to the Pentagon. You don’t want to be one of them. This is called “operational art.”

7. Dealing with information is hard. The bad people don’t play by the rules and they lie… a lot. One screw-up on our part and all the not so bad people get all upset because the bad people make a big deal about it. We need to spend a lot of time telling the not so bad people why we are different than the really bad people. Usually they don’t get it. Meanwhile the media people are busy trying to uncover the giant government conspiracy that we are supposed to be running. Also every hacker and pedophile out there is trying to screw up our computers and radios. This makes it really hard. Meanwhile the Air Force and Navy are wondering what’s wrong, since it’s not so hard for them. Once in a while, somebody on our side figures out what we should be doing. This is called “knowledge Management.”

The End

Glossary

Bad People: People that need whacking.

Battle Command: Motivating Soldiers with a cigar in your mouth.

Combined Arms: Using all of your combat power at once and surviving it.

Full Spectrum Operations: Careful whacking combined with lots of explaining.

Operational Art: Getting the Air Force or Navy to deal with the bad people before Soldiers have to.

Not so bad people: Anybody in the area of operations that is not a bad person or a Soldier.

SNAFU: A Twentieth Century term for land operations.

Soldier: Individual speaking in expletives and wearing cool-looking digital camouflage that doesn’t blend in with anything.

Unified Action: The opposite of SNAFU

Whacking: The redistribution or impairment of biological functions intended to eliminate intercellular cooperation within a sentient organism.

Back Cover

Someone really should forward this to both Senators Obama and Clinton, they’d both benefit from it almost as much as our own experts would if we could only get them to read it!

though not so good for democRATs

and their defeat at any cost platform.

Via HotAir

Pew: Majority now believe U.S. effort in Iraq will succeed, 53-39

Seems it’s harder to fool a majority of the people for a prolonged period in the post MSM world.