Say Anything Blog

Demographics shifting, but GOP isn’t
By ROBERT E. LANG

In the wake of the Republican defeat, there has been much recrimination and finger-pointing over tactics and strategy. Was the Sarah Palin choice fatal? Should John McCain have suspended his campaign during the financial crisis?

But the larger issue is whether 2008 was a “realigning election” that went deeper than the candidates or the current issues. The jury is still out as to whether Democrats can turn one sweeping victory into a generation-long dominance of the White House. A key element in a possible structural shift favoring Democrats is the changing demographics of the electorate. The U.S. is growing bigger, increasingly diverse and more cosmopolitan — and the GOP seems on the wrong side of all these trends.

The United States is the only developed country that is projected to add lots of new residents by mid-century. In 2006, the nation’s population reached 300 million. The Census Bureau estimates that the U.S. will get to 400 million by 2039. To put this growth in perspective, consider that even China (yes, China) will not add 100 million people by that date. The U.S. will gain more new residents in the next three decades than the current population of Germany — the largest European Union nation.

With each decade, more than 22 million potential new voters will enter the electorate. Parties that fix on a strategy may find that it is unworkable in just a few cycles. The Republican Party’s idea of stoking its base to gain office assumes a somewhat static voting public, which, given the dynamic nature of American demographics, is a faulty notion.

read the rest here:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1108/15791.html

(more...)

http://www.weeklystandard.com/Content/Public/Articles/000/000/015/791jsebl.asp

We Blew It

A look back in remorse on the conservative opportunity that was squandered.

by P.J. O’Rourke

11/17/2008, Volume 014, Issue 09

Let us bend over and kiss our ass goodbye. Our 28-year conservative opportunity to fix the moral and practical boundaries of government is gone--gone with the bear market and the Bear Stearns and the bear that’s headed off to do you-know-what in the woods on our philosophy.

An entire generation has been born, grown up, and had families of its own since Ronald Reagan was elected. And where is the world we promised these children of the Conservative Age? Where is this land of freedom and responsibility, knowledge, opportunity, accomplishment, honor, truth, trust, and one boring hour each week spent in itchy clothes at church, synagogue, or mosque? It lies in ruins at our feet, as well it might, since we ourselves kicked the shining city upon a hill into dust and rubble. The progeny of the Reagan Revolution will live instead in the universe that revolves around Hyde Park.

Mind you, they won’t live in Hyde Park. Those leafy precincts will be reserved for the micromanagers and macro-apparatchiks of liberalism--for Secretary of the Department of Peace Bill Ayers and Secretary of the Department of Fairness Bernardine Dohrn. The formerly independent citizens of our previously self-governed nation will live, as I said, around Hyde Park. They will make what homes they can in the physical, ethical, and intellectual slums of the South Side of Chicago.

The South Side of Chicago is what everyplace in America will be once the Democratic administration and filibuster-resistant Democratic Congress have tackled global warming, sustainability, green alternatives to coal and oil, subprime mortgage foreclosures, consumer protection, business oversight, financial regulation, health care reform, taxes on the “rich,” and urban sprawl. The Democrats will have plenty of time to do all this because conservatism, if it is ever reborn, will not come again in the lifetime of anyone old enough to be rounded up by ACORN and shipped to the polling booths.

read the rest here
http://www.weeklystandard.com/Content/Public/Articles/000/000/015/791jsebl.asp

No one wants to lose. No one wants to admit that the path followed was wrong. No one wants to backtrack and start the journey over from the start. Too fuckin bad. Life is hard.

Here is my personal formula for what the GOP must do in order to function as a relevant power in the 21st century. I know that many will disagree. Thats fine. Im not dumb enough to think this little missive will make a bit of difference one way or the other, but until the GOP comes to terms with a few realities, they will be downtrodden and irrelevant.

1) Quit blaming the media and liberals for all the failures of the GOP. Accept the fact that things have gotten out of hand and the trust of middle America has gone away. Quit answering critics with, “HEY look what the Dems are doing”!
What the dems do has nothing whatsoever to do with how the GOP behaves and performs. To simply point out the Dems faults when called on your own makes you look immature, petulant, and does not in any way instill confidence that the GOP has what it takes to deal with a 21st century world. 

2) Practice what you preach. If you want to be the party of small government, then BE THE PARTY OF SMALL GOVERNMENT! Quit giving lip service to smaller government and stand up for principal, even if it costs you in the short run. In the long run it will restore trust in the GOP if the people believe you are what you say you are. When the American people know that both sides are full of shit they will always pick the side that tells them what they want to hear, and thats rarely the GOP. The GOP must be trusted before it can be taken seriously.

3) Embrace the intellectual side of conservatism. These are the people that need to be listened to, not shunned and driven from the party. Pragmatic intellectualism is the brains of the outfit folks. To eject them or run them off because of emotionalism and social conservative ideals is plain stupid. Without these folks the GOP does not have the ability to win elections or govern competently. These are the type of conservatives that attract middle America and so called “Reagan Dems”. Without these minds in the GOP you will fail as a party and as a movement. The social issues conservative base is too small on its own, and does not have the tools to succeed on its own.

4) Reject the neocons as a failed experiment. These dimwits think you are stupid. They exploit the worst traits of conservatives and liberals to win elections. They are empty vessels and have been reputiated in the last two elections. They should be loudly and proudly shunned by the party as a whole. 

5) Adopt a more reasonable attitude towards social issues. The country doesnt need a minister, it needs sound pragatic leadership. Let people live the way they want to live. Pick your battles better. For instance, allow same sex unions unopposed as long as they agree to call it something other than “marriage”, and quit demonizing gays. They will relax if they know you are not out there working against them. Let them be. Accept that the country is not interested in doing away with abortion right now. All the abortion bills went down in flames this cycle and vitually every cycle before this one. This is a stupid fight. If you dont want an abortion, dont get one. Otherwise, leave it up to a woman and her doctor. The GOP will never win using this as a basic platform issue. If you have to fight this battle, do it with a little common sense and alot less emotionalism. The harder you push, the louder you get about abortion, the further away from the goal you get, and you drive away the middle of the country in the proccess. Fight hard for gun rights, but dont disregard the issues large population centers face in regards to guns and violent crime. The needs of the big cities are different than the needs of rural America. Let them decide how to deal with the problems they face, while protecting the rights we all hold dear. Drugs, Porn, vices of all kinds have always been with us and always will be. Dont get jiggy with the idea that personal freedom is fine as long as its YOUR BRAND of personal freedom. Live and let live. Leave religion at church. This is a major issue as far as I am concerned. The middle wont take the GOP seriously as long as they appear to be beholden to the Evangelicals. It makes the party look hypocritical and outdated, and it doesnst conform to the tenents of personal freedom and responsibility.

6) Accept the fact that we are already a socialist nation. Approach this with the idea that slowing the rate of socialistic change is the goal. We are already socialist and the only question is how far and how fast we will move that direction. To slow it down the GOP must first have credibility and a realistic view of the world. Bringing back the intellectuals will help in this regard. Buzzwords and meaningless blather wont change anything. It will make you “FEEL” better, but thats about all. Get smart people. Quit with the emotional silliness. This aint sunday school. Everybody has the right to persue happiness in the way they see fit. It isnt the job of the GOP or social issue conservatives to decide whats right and whats wrong for everyone else. Dont just be the “Jesus Wing” of the Democratic Party. It is a sure loser in the long or the short runs.

Ok, thats about it. I know alot of you see it exactly opposite, that the social issue fanatics and anti-intellectualism is the only hope for the GOP. I think you are wrong, but whatever. I have the tools to succeed in whatever environment I am placed in. I will be fine under Obama. I am not here because I think I will suffer if you Republicans dont change the way you do things. I am here because I believe that a strong Republican Party keeps the pace and depth of our march left moderated. An ineffectual GOP means liberals will do what they do unfettered. If the GOP fails to find itself and mount a strong loyal opposition, the balance that we have maintained over the course of our countries history will fail and that will not help the country now or in the future.

Im just sayin

With all the other choices available, the MSM has lost a considerable amount of viewership. It has been dropping for years now. This is nothing new. My personal perception is that the MSM has about 1/2 the viewership, and therefore 1/2 the clout they had even 15 years ago. I could be off a bit on this assessment, but the fact remains, the MSM is considerably less powerful and less watched than at any point in my lifetime.

The question I have is this:

When will the MSM have lost enough clout that they are no longer a viable scapegoat for the GOP, who seem to blame the MSM at every turn for all thier woes? What would it take for the MSM media to be of less importance to the reputation and trust of the GOP than the actions and inactions of the republicans themselves? Really, how could the MSM be MORE important to the reputation of the republican party than the actions and inactions of the GOP itself, no matter how large the viewership? Be honest. If the GOP had been doing the right thing for the last 10 years, the MSM and the way they choose to cover issues would have no bearing whatsoever on the outcome of this election. The party could stand on its own if it had praticed even a few of the important things it has stood for traditionally.

Even if the MSM dissapeared from the planet today, the GOP would still be a disaster. They have lost the higher moral ground, and thats what kept moderates voting republican all these years. Moderates and independents(unaffiliated) used to swing republican not because of issues, but because they believed the GOP were less corrupt, less full of shit, more stable, and more trustworthy. They had principals to stand on that that the dems could not claim. They were reliable. As of today, that is no more.

Not that the MSM isnt biased and all that. They are, to one degree of another. Its just that the GOP likes to blame anyone but themselves for the trouble they find themselves in. I think you cant fix it if you dont know what you have done to fuck it up. Blaming others when the truth is apparent doesnt rebuild confidence and trust in a party that once stood for personal responsibility, fiscal responsibility, and individual rights. It makes the party look like a bunch of hypocrites and liars. That used to be the democrats job. Do you republicans really want to be seen by the general public as just the “jesus wing” of the democratic party? Thats where its going right now IMO.(sorry Nieman)

If the numbers continue to drop for the MSM will they become at some point a non-factor in the perceptions the public has of the GOP? If so, what would that point be in your opinions? 

Why is it that even as the MSM has lost viewership over the last few years, becoming less and less in control of what you see and hear, have numbers of registered republicans also gone down, along with the support and trust of the GOP by the public as a whole? 

How does a good republican who thinks the MSM is the cause of all his/her problems reconcile this?

As long as the GOP continues to blame everything on everyone else instead of understanding why they are in the shape they are in, nothing will change for the republicans, MSM or no MSM. Meanwhile, the dems will do what they always do, unchecked, because there is no organized or viable true conservative resistance.

Blaming the media wont help.

I was watching Sarah Palin today on the stump with McCain in PA. She looks good, is beloved by a “certain” wing of the GOP, and seems easy to get along with. She comes across on TV as very likable and quite fetching. As soon as this disaster is over for McCain, Palin, and the GOP, Palin should try out for Fox News, challenge Pat Buchannan for the house conservative job over there at MSNBC, or maybe replace Elisabeth Hasselbeck as house conservative on the View. She would make a great talking head, right there next to O’Reilly, Olberman, or Whoopie Goldberg. I would say she should go up against Rush Limbaugh as the newest hot neocon voice of America, but unlike Rush, she has a face for TV, so why waste it.

Not much hope for her in politics after this election, but as an info-tainer she would excel.

For the most part I agree with this assessment of last nights debate. 

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/14235.html

By JOHN F. HARRIS & MIKE ALLEN | 10/3/08 1:25 AM EDT

ST. LOUIS — Millions of Americans were watching Thursday night’s vice presidential debate, waiting for a demolition derby moment — another crash by GOP running mate Sarah Palin, another serving of raw material for the writers at “Saturday Night Live.”

By that standard, she got out alive, though there were white-knuckle moments along the way: questions that were answered with painfully obvious talking points that betrayed scant knowledge of the issue at hand and sometimes little relevance to the question that had been asked.

But recent days have given John McCain’s team little reason to suppose that not-that-bad is good enough. The Republican ticket’s sliding polls and narrowing electoral map gave it a different imperative in Palin’s showdown against Joe Biden. That was to alter the trajectory of the race in a way reminiscent of how Palin first enlivened Republicans — it seems long ago now — when she joined the ticket in late August.

Absent new polling, there is little reason to think she cleared that bar in St. Louis.

To the contrary, it is hard to count any objective measures by which Biden did not clearly win the encounter. She looked like she was trying to get people to take her seriously. He looked like he was running for vice president. His answers were more responsive to the questions, far more detailed and less rhetorical.

On at least 10 occasions, Palin gave answers that were nonspecific, completely generic, pivoted away from the question at hand, or simply ignored it: on global warming, an Iraq exit strategy, Iran and Pakistan, Iranian diplomacy, Israel-Palestine (and a follow-up), the nuclear trigger, interventionism, Cheney’s vice presidency and her own greatest weakness.

read the whole thing here

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/14235.html

To all you real conservatives and all you neocons who falsely think your conservative:

Unless you understand why this is happening, you have no chance of recovery for many years, or maybe for ever.

Quit blaming the liberals for everything and pretending this is not really going to happen. Quit pretending that its just a skewed poll, or the MSM is to blame. It is happening, and the bulk of the blame rests firmly on the shoulders of the neo-cons and the conservatives for allowing the neocons to hijack the party and run rampant without oversight or restraint.

It might tighten up some, but Obama will win, probably by a large margin electoral college wise, and it will be the result of neo-con incompetence and conservative apathy to what was happening in your party. You will be responsbile for the radical socialization that will no doubt take place in the next 10-20 years. I hope you got what you wanted. (more...)