The big-time Republican players in Washington and small-time Republican players in North Dakota are working themselves into a frenzy as they try to entice ND Gov. John Hoeven into a 2006 senatorial race against the 4 time incumbent, Kent Conrad. A new poll out today will certainly have them fired up.

The Forum
That hypothetical match-up – Hoeven hasn’t declared himself a candidate for Conrad’s job in 2006 – is too close to call in a poll for The Forum.

The telephone survey, by PMR Inc. of Davenport, Iowa, showed Hoeven leading Conrad, 35 percent to 27 percent. The poll has a margin of error of 3.9 percentage points, plus or minus.

I'm a firm believer in the accuracy of polls heading into elections as predictors of race outcomes. However, there is no way I would put much weight into such a hazy poll so early in a potential race. The only way this poll would have made me think twice about anything was if it showed a tremendous lead for either Hoeven or Conrad. If such a lead were large enough and if the polling methods were sound, it may have indicated a slight lead for one of the two candidates.

But since that was not the case this poll is pretty much useless. Perhaps if anything it may offer John Hoeven some additional security that this race will be close, but he knows that already.

A much more provocative sign of the fight for John Hoeven's ear is the recent announcement of a Karl Rove visit to North Dakota to rally the Republican faithful.

Karl Rove, President Bush’s top political operative, is scheduled to visit North Dakota on Sept. 24. The Bush White House has been aggressive in recruiting candidates to unseat Democrats, especially in the Senate.

Karl Rove's public image comes with some baggage (undeservedly so in my opinion) but I think the net effect of Karl being involved in this race is a positive one for Governor Hoeven. He is a political genius that already has experience unseating high ranking Dems in the Dakotas (see Tom Daschle 2004).

Team Conrad is taking a good approach to these developments though. They know that the fight they will face back home in North Dakota will be markedly easier if John Hoeven decides not to run. If they can persuade him into thinking that a potential race isn't winnable, they may have already won the 2006 election a year early. The Republican cupboard gets bare fast after John Hoeven is removed.

That's why I find this race so intriguing. It could possibly be decided in large part way before any of the usual election year hoopla gets started.