An interesting analysis from Politico:
With just hours remaining until an historic vote on a sweeping health-care reform measure Saturday evening, at least 32 Democrats have said they will vote against the bill as of 6:30 p.m., according to a POLITICO analysis.
Just eight more “no” votes would be enough to sink the bill if Republicans maintain, as expected, a solid front of opposition. Still, Democratic sources are signaling that they have secured the majority of the caucus and expect to pass the bill tonight.
While the reasons these Democrats have offered for opposing the $1.2 trillion bill vary, they nearly all share a common trait—they are among the most politically vulnerable incumbents in the House, and they tend to represent conservative-minded seats that John McCain won in 2008.
Do Democrats risk a Pyrrhic victory in trying to jam through government health care like this? Do they maybe win a slim vote tonight (one that could well be meaningless if things don’t go their way in the Senate) in exchange for seeing their numbers significantly reduced in the House? If not losing the House entirely?
That could well be the case, but as car as conservatives are concerned the point is moot. This is a worthwhile gamble for the Democrats. Making Americans supplicants to the government for health care is a multi-generational goal for them. One that may well be worth some time spent out of power if they can get it passed. Because trust me, if Republicans get back into power in 2010 there will be no getting rid of this new health care entitlement. By then it will be too late.
Indeed, Obama is on record saying that he’s willing to lose the next election if it means passing government health care. I think a lot of Democrats may feel that way.
Not the ones who are at-risk of actually being voted out of office, mind you, but liberals in general are no doubt willing to spend some time out of office in exchange for the creation of a government health care system we’ll never, ever be rid of.
