Tom Dennis (GF Herald) gave his prediction on how our delegation will vote on Supreme Court nominee Judge Alito.
In which direction will Sens. Kent Conrad and Byron Dorgan, both D-N.D., turn?
Right now, the odds are they'll vote with their party, especially if the Democratic leadership (which includes Dorgan) urges its caucus to present a united front. That's what happened in the spring, when Conrad and Dorgan joined a Democratic filibuster of conservative judicial appointees.
Such an outcome became even more likely a few weeks ago, when Gov. John Hoeven said no to a 2006 Senate race against Conrad. Hoeven's move left North Dakota Republicans without a clear candidate, and gave Conrad more freedom to stand with his party on controversial votes.
Dennis seems to indicate that Sen. Conrad can now play politics with his vote. According to Dennis, Sen. Conrad can now vote with Kerry, Kennedy, his bankrollers, Moveon.org, and the ACLU because he does not have to campaign against Gov. Hoeven. Does anyone else see what's going on here? Because Sen. Conrad does not have to listen to North Dakotans in 2006, he can vote against our interests, according to Dennis.
We've heard (albeit a rumor) that Kevin Cramer is polling well. Perhaps if Sen. Conrad votes against North Dakotans (again)on this issue, maybe it will improve Cramer's chances, if he were to run. Or, maybe a vote against Alito will force Gov. Hoeven to reconsider his decision not to run in 2006. Because of these issues, I'm convinced that Sen. Conrad will vote FOR Alito. Senator Dorgan will vote AGAINST him, because this is a controversial issue for the Dems, and Dorgan is part of the leadership... oh yeah, he also doesn't have to face North Dakotan voters for about 5 years.
Another reason why I think Sen. Conrad will give North Dakotans the rope-a-dope is because the Dems will not win this fight, regardless of how he votes. Either senators like Sen. Conrad will vote for Alito and he will get confirmed with over 60 votes, or senators like Sen. Conrad will participate in a filibuster and the GOP will invoke the "nuclear" option. Either way, Alito gets on the bench. This allows Sen. Conrad the freedom to play politics. The problem will come when Sen. Conrad's ultra-liberal bankrollers see that Sen. Conrad will vote for Alito, but they will also understand that Sen. Conrad would have needed to vote for him to get reelected and that ultimately Sen. Conrad's vote doesn't matter. .
A vote for Alito will also hurt the NDGOP's chances at beating Sen. Conrad in 2006. A vote against Alito will fire up the conservative base in ND, who could then rally around Gov. Hoeven or Kevin Cramer. Senator Conrad could, and probably will, disarm them on that issue.
If there is one thing Sen. Conrad can do well, it's play politics. Senator Conrad will be able to give North Dakotans the rope-a-dope, keep his bankroll, disarm the conservative base, and his vote doesn't matter anyway, in the big scheme of things.
It makes too much political sense for Sen. Conrad to vote for Alito.