Is Obama out?  We’re far too far away from election day to say, and certainly with most of the media on Obama’s side anything can happen, but I wouldn’t say that Obama’s been doing well.  As the Atlanta Journal-Constitution points out:

Democrats know something, and desperation is setting in. They have a novice campaigner who wanders off message. With every advantage in the primaries, Obama couldn’t win the big states — New York, New Jersey, Ohio and Pennsylvania — against Hillary Clinton, even when he got to define the rules for running against him. She could never risk alienating the base she’ll need in 2012; John McCain and Sarah Palin have no such constraints — hence the panic.

For a “change” candidate, Obama appears to be a man locked in time, unable to move past criticism, unable to move from the grip of the Democratic left, unable to adapt to the changed reality that the campaign is not the referendum on the war in Iraq or on the administration of George W. Bush that he’d envisioned…

Obama will lose because with less than two months remaining voters won’t be able to get comfortable with him. He can’t stay on message and he can’t avoid sending signals that interfere with the message when he does.

McCain, on the other hand, has been superb going back at least to Obama’s European tour. Mainstream America is comfortable with him and, with Palin’s selection, conservatives who had their doubts are onboard. The GOP is energized and suddenly an unwinnable election is reversed.

I wouldn’t go so far as to say that Obama will lose.  Again, we’re an eternity from the election in campaign time, and a lot can happen.  But even so, McCain has gained 16 points among independent voters according to a Fox News poll.  McCain is leading by 20 in North Carolina.  Obama’s lead in the reliably-blue Washington is down to two points, and McCain has leads in swing states Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida.

Even the Congressional races are starting to look good for Republicans, and to top it all off Obama’s vaunted fund raising prowess seems to be faltering.

Unless Obama does something new, and by that I mean something other than smearing Sarah Palin and mocking McCain’s disabilities, he’s going to lose this race by Walter Mondale proportions.