The Associated Press is blasting this headline right now:
The reporter responsible, Liz Sidoti, uses poll numbers to conclude that Democrats are much more excited about their candidates than Republicans:
A half year before voting begins, the survey shows the White House race is far more wide open on the Republican side than on the Democratic. The uneven enthusiasm about the fields also is reflected in fundraising in which Democrats outraised Republicans $80 million to $50 million from April through June, continuing a trend from the year’s first three months.
“Democrats are reasonably comfortable with the range of choices. The Democratic attitude is that three or four of these guys would be fine,” David Redlawsk, a University of Iowa political scientist. “The Republicans don’t have that; particularly among the conservatives there’s a real split. They just don’t see candidates who reflect their interests and who they also view as viable.”
Now that analysis may or may not hold true (I think it will be a different ballgame once Fred is officially in the race), but before anyone buys into it we should take a look at what this analysis was based on:
The latest Associated Press-Ipsos poll found that nearly a quarter of Republicans are unwilling to back top-tier hopefuls Rudy Giuliani, Fred Thompson, John McCain or Mitt Romney, and no one candidate has emerged as the clear front-runner among Christian evangelicals. Such dissatisfaction underscores the volatility of the 2008 GOP nomination fight.
In sharp contrast, the Democratic race remains static, with Hillary Rodham Clinton holding a sizable lead over Barack Obama. The New York senator, who is white, also outpaces her Illinois counterpart, who is black, among black and Hispanic Democrats, according to a combined sample of two months of polls.
In the Republican race, Sidoti only looks at poll results for evangelical Christians. For the Democrats? She looks at a combined sample of two months worth of polls.
Now which measure do you think is most representative?
I know many of these reporters view Republicans as some homogeneous mass of bible-thumping rubes, but this is ridiculous. Not all Republicans are evangelicals, or even Christian, and while the evangelical vote may be a critical demographic for the GOP it’s not the only demographic.