According to things I’m hearing from people in the know it seems as though it might be.

Before launching a campaign against incumbent Democrat Representative Earl Pomeroy Duane Sand was the regional director for the North Dakota chapter of American’s for Prosperity.  In that capacity he began an initiated measure movement which would cut individual state income tax rates by 50% and corporate tax rates by 15%.  I was asked to be a member of the sponsoring committee on that measure and I agreed and have supported signature-collection efforts across the state.

After beginning this push, Sand decided that he also wanted to run for the House of Representatives.  I, personally, felt this decision was a mistake.  I felt Duane should have focused on guiding the initiated measure through the signature-collecting process and through the state-wide vote before moving on to bigger and better things.  After all, there was (and still is) no other serious challenge to Pomeroy on the horizon meaning that Sand would have more than likely been free to run against Earl in 2010. 

I expressed this concern to people involved with AFP and the initiated measure and they shared my concerns, though ultimately the decision laid with Duane and he was not to be deterred.  Now it appears as though I was right.  Duane’s decision to mount a campaign on the entrenched Pomeroy before completing the initiated measure process is turning out to be a mistake.

Since late 2007 Duane has lost four people who worked for him.  He lost a campaign manager in 2007, an employee at the ND chapter of Americans for Prosperity, and now he’s lost both a campaign communications director and a second campaign manager.  Steve Lautte and Greg Merkel, the director and manager respectively, resigned from Duane’s campaign last week though this news has yet to hit the pages and airwaves of the North Dakota media.

None of the people who stopped working for Duane will speak ill of him, choosing instead to maintain a professional silence, but I’m guessing that they left because Duane (who has a reputation for being something of a bull in a china closet) has become increasingly difficult to work for.  I’d also be willing to bet that they left because of concerns about the initiated measure failing.  Without the initiated measure Duane’s campaign is dead in the water.

Does the initiated measure still have a chance to be on the ballot?  I think it does, and I think North Dakotans are still thirsty for tax relief what with the state running massive budget surpluses and the resurgence of the oil industry (which is driving most of those tax revenues) being as bright and hopeful as ever.

Personally, I remain committed to seeing the initiated measure to cut income taxes on the ballot come election time.  If it makes it to the ballot, when it makes it to the ballot, it may be the most important measure for North Dakotans to decide on because this state is at a key junction, economically, and could be set on fire with a bit of meaningful tax relief.  I also remain committed to seeing the liberal Earl Pomeroy cast from office, but given the type leadership put on display by Sand over the last several months I’m not at all convinced he’s the man to do it.

Conservatives in North Dakota are in danger of seeing an ambitious measure to cut taxes go up in flames, as well as having the firmly-entrenched Democrat House incumbent facing a relative non-entity.  Which is something that would leave that incumbent free to dump his millions gained from out-of-state liberal interests into local campaigns.  Which, in turn, will make races across the state tough for Republicans.

All of that will be Duane Sand’s doing if he doesn’t get things back on track.