Friedman: "Well, it depends on how the situation in Iraq eventually is concluded. I said all along, you don't go in the Middle East from Saddam to Jefferson without going through Khomeini. I wish you could but you don't. We are seeing the truth about that part of the world. When you crack regimes at the top, you go into complete free-fall until you hit the mosque. There are no civil societies, no free press."
Couric: "Is it still possible to get to Jefferson?"
Friedman: "I am not sure. That's the grand experiment. It's an experiment that is important. If you can't create a situation where these people themselves forge their own social contract so they don't have to be ruled by an iron fist, you are looking at a future of dictatorship as far as the eye can see. That brought you 9/11, I would argue. We don't know how this will end. I would say I think we are in the end game. The next six to nine months will tell whether we can produce a decent outcome in Iraq."
I have long felt this way about democracy in Iraq.
Since invading Iraq we have toppled an oppressive regime and installed a government designed and led by representatives elected by the people. Yet that alone is not enough to turn Iraq into a western-style, liberal democracy. In order for the Iraqis to get there they must also embrace things like a free press, free expression, religious tolerance and a free market. That isn't gong to happen over night as it will require some amount of societal evolution in addition to political change. And societies tend, most of the time, to evolve very slowly.
Iraqis may spend the next generation electing theocratic religious extremists. That is unfortunate, but not necessarily something that spells doom for what we have done in Iraq. As long as the democratic process for electing, and un-electing, these leaders remains in place Iraq will, I think, evolve into a country that embraces many of the freedoms we hold dear here in the west.
Again, though, this isn't going to happen quickly. Much of Islamic society in the middle-east is still, it seems, stuck in the middle ages. They have not evolved, but I think has more to do with a lack of opportunity to evolve rather than a lack of ability. Regardless, we have now provided Iraqis with an opportunity to bring their country into the modern era. If they make a few mistakes at the start perhaps we shouldn't be too critical.
After all, how do you support a government run by the will of the people if you do not respect that will even when you feel the people are mistaken?