Kiplinger (Subscription Required):

Exports will buoy the 2008 economy.  They’re expanding faster than imports and will generate half of the 1.5% to 2% growth we expect. That’s up from one-quarter of gains in 2007, the first time since 1995 that exports made a positive contribution to annual GDP.

A kinder, gentler trade gap is on tap.  It’ll amount to about 3.8% of GDP in 2008, the smallest share of GDP in seven years and down substantially from this year’s 5.1%.

Thank global growth and the weak dollar for America’s most recent export surge. The greenback should soon hit its lowest level, on a trade-weighted basis, since the currency began to float freely in the markets in 1973.

The low buck will have a long tail. Even if the dollar were to start rebounding at this point, the lag effect of its six-year swoon would fuel exports for a few years. Why? It takes businesses a long time to adjust
to currency changes. Finding new suppliers is easier said than done.  That’s why the weaker dollar didn’t instantly boost sales abroad.

I remember when I was a youngster and the doom and gloomers where claiming that we were going to sink to the Japanese.  They used the falling dollar compared to the Yen to prove their point.  As we all know Japan was nothing that we couldn’t handle, and neither is China. 

Thinking that your currency has to be the strongest is the mark of a child.  I fell for that line of thinking that time, but now I know better.  I guess some people are going to be surprised again.

The US export industry is alive and well no matter what the gloom and doomsters have to say.