I have been around the net for so long that when I first logged in their were less than two dozen sites on the net!
This same tired argument ran in the dial up age and even through the beginning of AOL and still lives beyond it’s years today.
Simply put in dial up days the big users paid through the nose for the faster modems on the bleeding edge. Then in todays net they pay already for the highest speed tier of service offered via the ISP at a multiple of the bottom end cost.
No matter how you cut it , unless they go totally robotic in just downloading, the high usage people are almost at their saturation point for what they will go after.
The massive unwashed at the bottom end will crash the systems with their adoptions of youtube, online video sources and such that will make the heavy users lost in the roundoff error.
The heavy types do it for work or wanted downloads or even online RPG environments and they don’t really have a lot of growth left unless their usual haunts for example up their output of game resolution transfered over the net and not just contained via the software to the local machine.
All the web 2.0 and beyond stuff for the little guys, plus IPOD stuff will kill it all since the providers simply want to penalize the top which is already paying the most expensive tier, paying for access to the content they are bringing in from game providers for example and putting more bucks into the fastest hardware and the biggest hard drives.
But its the little guys at the bottom that will force the upgrades the ISP’s are again trying to put off and blame the bad old net freaks and not the net nerds.
JustADude - 04:01pm on 01/20/2008
I have been around the net for so long that when I first logged in their were less than two dozen sites on the net!
And with dialup it probably took you only a week or so to visit them all.
The Whistler - 04:01pm on 01/20/2008
The ISP types know from their research that the high end types will pay for the penalty bits. They have to much sunk cost and in many cases real world business needs and such and can’t give up on what they need.
The bottom end doesn’t have that level of commitment but even just small unit growth will result in a massive combined number of new bits to be thrown around the web. However they are much more cost sensitive and the ISP types know it and have the surveys to prove it.
You are touching around the edge of the whole net neutrality debate and ISP’s wanting to bleed the top who they know will pay to try to create their nirvana of optimization of bucks down to the last bit passing their portals.
But again for like the 4th or more generation of this game playing out like a seasonal rerun they will have to bite the bullet and simply expand their total available bandwidth or a competitor will. It’s just a matter of who will open the door and FIOS looks like they want to be a player.
The USA already pays way more per bite than the rest of the world does by large margins and has the slowest top end speeds and the worst customer service which is the international net world turned on it’s head.
Feature creep even in low end stuff will drive the need.
We have gone from plain text IM’s to IM’s with graphics, to Video IM’s to Video IM’s with background file transfer and then on and on.
NetFlix is taking the caps off their online viewing and more will follow. Expansion at the bottom will mushroom and some providers are going to have to light up all that massive amount of dark fiber they own that was put in during the dot com boom. They know it , but they are crying poor me the ISP to set up the bleed tier pricing to laugh all the way to the bank when they start to turn it on.
JustADude - 04:01pm on 01/20/2008
This is all a repeating scam by the ISP’s here. Tech over the years allows growth of the megabytes the ISP can cram through a single pipe of optic fiber.
The main backbone is now pushing single fiber links into the multi-terrabyte range and look to up that by 10 fold or more in the next couple of years and the routers are available to switch it all around in non blocking connections at full wire speed switching. Their unit cost per megabyte is dropping faster than the panties of an overworked hooker at the Olympics.
Go out to the rest of the world and the heaviest users get bulk discounts to attract their business and all sorts of perks. Here they get thrown into the penalty box.
ISP’s can now turn on just a single extra fiber and bring on more capacity in a step growth at a lower cost than what they are already using. Heck most of them can simply upgrade the speed of what they already have even cheaper.
This is a massive scam and a strawman but many here will buy into it, since they really have nothing to compare it to.
JustADude - 04:01pm on 01/20/2008
A simple fact is that competition will work to lower prices no matter what the businesses try to accomplish.
The only thing thing to worry about is the government will come in with a “fix” that will stifle competition and innovation.
We’re going to need more speed with increased usage. It won’t be long and we’ll be able to get our movies and that on demand over the infernalnet.
How about adding ten thousand movies to your DVD library?
The Whistler - 04:01pm on 01/20/2008
Economics: The current system wastes bandwidth. It costs some finite amount for a service provider to carry a marginal unit of bandwidth, but it costs nothing for a consumer to eat it up. People are using bandwidth when it is worth less to them than it costs to provide. Therefore, the current system needs to be changed; as a neat little result, no one will have incentive to upload pirated games and applications on free torrent sites.
John - 04:01pm on 01/20/2008
I don’t see this not happening.
John - 04:01pm on 01/20/2008
The free wasted bandwidth argument is bogus. It is just as bogus as the wasted electricity to power up your game console or home theater. It provides a service to you.
You pay a price for your kw’s of electricity, that manufacture across town pays a whole bunch less per kw than you do but you still pay to play.
For my business I have multiple OC3 lines I use and this summer I am going to raise them to the next step up for business reasons. The line cards in my routers already support much higher speeds and they are simply throttled down to OC3 per card to meet my current needs. This step up will be a simple software setting to make it so. Sure my cost per what was each OC3 line will jump, but the unit cost per megabyte will be cut to a fraction of what it was before.
Plus I have no knew costs to drag in another cable conduit with more fibers at big bucks per mile to do it. I have standard 20 and 50 fiber cables here with plenty of dark fibers to light up as needed. Simply a matter of putting in another line card in the routers.
JustADude - 05:01pm on 01/20/2008
competition will work to lower prices no matter what the businesses try to accomplish.
Say Anything - Pay per View! What a concept!
I have been around the net for so long that when I first logged in their were less than two dozen sites on the net!
This same tired argument ran in the dial up age and even through the beginning of AOL and still lives beyond it’s years today.
Simply put in dial up days the big users paid through the nose for the faster modems on the bleeding edge. Then in todays net they pay already for the highest speed tier of service offered via the ISP at a multiple of the bottom end cost.
No matter how you cut it , unless they go totally robotic in just downloading, the high usage people are almost at their saturation point for what they will go after.
The massive unwashed at the bottom end will crash the systems with their adoptions of youtube, online video sources and such that will make the heavy users lost in the roundoff error.
The heavy types do it for work or wanted downloads or even online RPG environments and they don’t really have a lot of growth left unless their usual haunts for example up their output of game resolution transfered over the net and not just contained via the software to the local machine.
All the web 2.0 and beyond stuff for the little guys, plus IPOD stuff will kill it all since the providers simply want to penalize the top which is already paying the most expensive tier, paying for access to the content they are bringing in from game providers for example and putting more bucks into the fastest hardware and the biggest hard drives.
But its the little guys at the bottom that will force the upgrades the ISP’s are again trying to put off and blame the bad old net freaks and not the net nerds.
And with dialup it probably took you only a week or so to visit them all.
The ISP types know from their research that the high end types will pay for the penalty bits. They have to much sunk cost and in many cases real world business needs and such and can’t give up on what they need.
The bottom end doesn’t have that level of commitment but even just small unit growth will result in a massive combined number of new bits to be thrown around the web. However they are much more cost sensitive and the ISP types know it and have the surveys to prove it.
You are touching around the edge of the whole net neutrality debate and ISP’s wanting to bleed the top who they know will pay to try to create their nirvana of optimization of bucks down to the last bit passing their portals.
But again for like the 4th or more generation of this game playing out like a seasonal rerun they will have to bite the bullet and simply expand their total available bandwidth or a competitor will. It’s just a matter of who will open the door and FIOS looks like they want to be a player.
The USA already pays way more per bite than the rest of the world does by large margins and has the slowest top end speeds and the worst customer service which is the international net world turned on it’s head.
Feature creep even in low end stuff will drive the need.
We have gone from plain text IM’s to IM’s with graphics, to Video IM’s to Video IM’s with background file transfer and then on and on.
NetFlix is taking the caps off their online viewing and more will follow. Expansion at the bottom will mushroom and some providers are going to have to light up all that massive amount of dark fiber they own that was put in during the dot com boom. They know it , but they are crying poor me the ISP to set up the bleed tier pricing to laugh all the way to the bank when they start to turn it on.
This is all a repeating scam by the ISP’s here. Tech over the years allows growth of the megabytes the ISP can cram through a single pipe of optic fiber.
The main backbone is now pushing single fiber links into the multi-terrabyte range and look to up that by 10 fold or more in the next couple of years and the routers are available to switch it all around in non blocking connections at full wire speed switching. Their unit cost per megabyte is dropping faster than the panties of an overworked hooker at the Olympics.
Go out to the rest of the world and the heaviest users get bulk discounts to attract their business and all sorts of perks. Here they get thrown into the penalty box.
ISP’s can now turn on just a single extra fiber and bring on more capacity in a step growth at a lower cost than what they are already using. Heck most of them can simply upgrade the speed of what they already have even cheaper.
This is a massive scam and a strawman but many here will buy into it, since they really have nothing to compare it to.
A simple fact is that competition will work to lower prices no matter what the businesses try to accomplish.
The only thing thing to worry about is the government will come in with a “fix” that will stifle competition and innovation.
We’re going to need more speed with increased usage. It won’t be long and we’ll be able to get our movies and that on demand over the infernalnet.
How about adding ten thousand movies to your DVD library?
Economics: The current system wastes bandwidth. It costs some finite amount for a service provider to carry a marginal unit of bandwidth, but it costs nothing for a consumer to eat it up. People are using bandwidth when it is worth less to them than it costs to provide. Therefore, the current system needs to be changed; as a neat little result, no one will have incentive to upload pirated games and applications on free torrent sites.
I don’t see this not happening.
The free wasted bandwidth argument is bogus. It is just as bogus as the wasted electricity to power up your game console or home theater. It provides a service to you.
You pay a price for your kw’s of electricity, that manufacture across town pays a whole bunch less per kw than you do but you still pay to play.
For my business I have multiple OC3 lines I use and this summer I am going to raise them to the next step up for business reasons. The line cards in my routers already support much higher speeds and they are simply throttled down to OC3 per card to meet my current needs. This step up will be a simple software setting to make it so. Sure my cost per what was each OC3 line will jump, but the unit cost per megabyte will be cut to a fraction of what it was before.
Plus I have no knew costs to drag in another cable conduit with more fibers at big bucks per mile to do it. I have standard 20 and 50 fiber cables here with plenty of dark fibers to light up as needed. Simply a matter of putting in another line card in the routers.