Your Election Day Predictions Thread

ivoted1

I’ve got a confession to make. I don’t actually like writing about campaigns all that much. I’d rather write about issues, but when it’s campaign season and you run a political blog you write about the campaigns.

Suffice it to say, though, that I’ll be glad to see election season over so we can move on to a new legislative session in North Dakota, and a new Congress in Washington DC.

But since this is the last day of election season, let’s do some prognostications on the outcomes for some of the candidates so that when the election is over we can all call each other names based on who was right and wrong.

President: Mitt Romney (R)

I think Romney is going to win taking Indiana, Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, New Hampshire and Colorado away from Obama who won them all last year. Or, in other words, I agree with Karl Rove:

Senate: Rick Berg (R)

I’d be very surprised to see Rick Berg have anything less than a 5 point lead over Heitkamp by the time the ballots are done being counted. The average of all the independent polling done in October give Berg a 4.25% lead. If you look at just the last three polls, he’s got a 5.6% lead. And when you consider that none of the polls have likely taken into account the dramatic population growth in conservative western North Dakota, where Republicans tell me early/absentee voting has been going gangbusters, it’s not hard to pin another couple of points on for Berg. My guess is that he gets at least five, and probably ends up with a 7 point victory over Heitkamp.

House: Kevin Cramer (R)

It’s been more than a month before any honest observer thought North Dakota’s House race was really a race. Early on, thanks to strong fundraising by Democrat Pam Gulleson and some dissension in Republican ranks over Cramer’s decision to skip the NDGOP’s nominating convention, many (including myself) thought this would be a real race. But once Cramer emerged from the June primary as the Republican candidate, Gulleson’s campaign quickly faded. I’d expect Cramer to win by at least 10 points, and probably something more like 15.

Governor: Jack Dalrymple (R)

Dalrymple stepped up to finish off former Governor John Hoeven’s term in office after Hoeven was elected to office. While Dalrymple was Lt. Governor Hoeven enjoyed approval ratings in the 70% range, and Dalrymple will coast to easy victory on that inertia of good will, thanks also to the fact that North Dakota’s energy boom is making it pretty easy to be governor right now. Taylor has tried to campaign on angst over the environmental/social impact of the oil boom, but things in western ND just aren’t as bad as Taylor has made them out to be, and the tactic has gotten little traction. Taylor has also pushed ethics allegations against Dalrymple, asserting that campaign contributions from members of the energy industry are somehow bribes, and while Republicans certainly need to get in front of those allegations as they’ll be part of the Democrats’ long-term strategy to take back the state from Republicans, they aren’t likely to do Taylor much good on election day.

Public Service Commissioner: Randy Christmann (R)

Many Republicans have been worried that Democrat Brad Crabtree may actually win this race. Crabtree, unlike Christmann, was on the statewide ballot in 2010 and while he lost to incumbent Kevin Cramer, name recognition counts for a lot in North Dakota. Couple that with Crabtree getting a lot of headlines for his ethics accusations against Christmann and other Republican members of the PSC, and many were worried that he might win. But the only polling in the race showed Christmann with an eight point lead, and voters will undoubtedly remember Crabtree’s support for some very anti-oil, anti-coal policies in the past such as cap and trade.

Department of Public Instruction: Kirsten Baesler (R)

Out of all the races on the statewide ballot, Republicans probably have the best chance of losing this one. The first poll conducted in the race, in early October, showed independent Tracy Potter (formerly a Democrat Senate candidate and Democrat legislator) with a 10 point lead. The last poll, from just over a week ago, showed Potter with a 2 point lead. That shows a lot of momentum toward Baesler, but Potter was on the statewide ballot previously (he ran for US Senate in 2010) and, as stated previously, name recognition counts for a lot. Also, this is nominally a non-partisan race, meaning Baesler (who was endorsed by the NDGOP anyway) might not get as much of the benefit of Republican inertia from the rest of the statewide race as she might have otherwise. But Potter got a shellacking in 2010 in the Senate race, he’s got a long history of political extremism, and despite being a Republican Baesler has the state teacher’s union endorsement. That should be enough to give her the edge over Potter.

Treasurer, Auditor and Insurance Commissioner: Kelly Schmidt (R), Adam Hamm (R) and Bob Peterson (R)

There hasn’t been a lot of coverage of these races, mostly because incumbent Treasurer Kelly Schmidt, incumbent Insurance Commissioner Adam Hamm and incumbent Auditor Bob Peterson are facing place holder candidates nominated by Democrats to avoid the embarrassment of allowing Republicans to run unopposed on the statewide ballot. Ask yourself if you can name any of the Democrats running against these incumbents?

Yeah, didn’t think so. And, just to pile on, the only polling done in the race showed Schmidt winning by 25 points, Hamm winning by 17 points and Peterson winning by 16.

ND Legislature: This will be an interesting year for legislative races, especially considering that the state just went through redistricting. Lines have been redrawn, and the ideological makeup of some of the districts have changed. Given that legislative races are almost always decided by just a few hundred votes, redistricting could have made a big change in some of the districts. That said, expect Republicans to lose a few seats overall if for no other reason than because they hold such a large majority already that it’s hard to imagine them gaining any more ground.

That’s my take. Post yours below.

Rob Port is the editor of SayAnythingBlog.com. In 2011 he was a finalist for the Watch Dog of the Year from the Sam Adams Alliance and winner of the Americans For Prosperity Award for Online Excellence. In 2013 the Washington Post named SAB one of the nation's top state-based political blogs, and named Rob one of the state's best political reporters. He writes a weekly column for several North Dakota newspapers, and also serves as a policy fellow for the North Dakota Policy Council.

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  • gary gulrud

    Romany & Ryan 348 EV
    Senate: 54 GOP
    House: No change
    And just to drive you nuts, Michele Bachman by a baker’s dozen.

  • Mike Quinn

    North Dakota has a population of basically good people. However, the people of North Dakota are not worldly and they are too trusting. The people of North Dakota fall prey to right wing distortion and lying very easily. The fact that Fox and Rush sell so well in this state is an indication of what trouble we are in. In North Dakota the NRA rules. Sadly I would predict the lying and distortion of the Republicans will work. It will be sad to see North Dakota take another big step backwards by falling for the old trickle down, but if I made a bet, I would bet the simple minded rule the day. Republicans have convinced the Hoopleheads they put the oil under the state. The Republicans with their lying about the president being a Muslim, a socialist, and a Kenyan have won the minds of the ignorant, and god knows there is no shortage of ignorant people. Nothing would be better than being wrong in this case, but as they say there is no cure for stupid. Randy Christmann is a clear case. I can prove beyond a doubt the man is crooked and a cheat. Very few Hoopleheads called to verify what I say. The Hoopleheads love their delusions, and they don’t want anyone to break their Fox News bubble.

    • The Fighting Czech

      Thank God in this country, you are still free to move to a more enlightened state. (At least so far anyway) whose citizens arent so mentally challenged…. So shoooo…. be gone, let us simpletons enjoy or primative ways of life!!!

      • $8194357

        (Thank God in this country, you are still free to move to a more enlightened state)
        And with alot of ND folks blessing as well…

    • Game

      The North Dakota Democrats have nobody to blame for the state of the party but themselves.
      Election after election, they have run terrible candidates and have failed to
      inspire the voter’s with any sense message.

      The state party has long believed that if they had a candidate with enough name recognition, everything would be better. However, the GOP has out hustled them in very down ballot candidate selection and they have reaped the benefits of it. The Dem-NLP needs to develop a plan to develop a bench of candidates and begin to create real completion for races down ballot. Pick of one race at a time, govern well, and things will turn around.

      • http://sayanythingblog.com Rob

        The North Dakota Democrats need to become less liberal. The shift left of the national party under Barack Obama has been devastating for them, and is probably the biggest contributing factor to Dorgan, Conrad and Pomeroy not being in office any more, and the fact that Heitkamp isn’t going to win.

        It’s not name recognition. Heitkamp had every bit as much (and more in some polls) name recognition as Berg and she will lose this evening.

        If the Democrats move back toward the center they’ll have a better chance in ND.

        • Phil Gay

          Rob the ND Republicans need to also be less liberal. Dalrymple, John Hoeven very very liberal as they are more Democrat than Conservative.

        • Hannitized, Proofs obsession

          That’s comical coming from a guy who voted for a candidate that abandoned his right-wing radical view points during the presidential debates. Not only do you not know who or what you voted for, but you certainly can’t stand on a soap box and pretend your radical viewpoints are acceptable among the majority of Americans.

          • Gern Blanston

            This coming from an Obama supporter is laughable.

          • Carl

            And you, an anti semetic, godless communist who thinks that obama bringing down the USA is the best thing since white bread.

        • Game

          The problem with the Dem-NPL party in ND predates Obama by a generation and will exist long after he completes his second term.

          The problem Rob is not matter who is running from the Dem-NLP side, people like you will call them “Liberal”. In MN, Collin Peterson is a pretty moderate guy, and in fact even Scott Hennen has endorsed him in the past.

          However, election after election, somebody will run against him claiming that he is an “extreme liberal” and ignore what the stand for and try to tie them to national politics.

          The fact of the matter is, and I am guessing that you will agree with me on this, John Hoeven has won multiple elections in North Dakota with positions that almost any Democrats could run under.

          John Hoeven is a US Senator right now because when he was interested in running for office 20 years ago, the GOP convinced him that they could better support his efforts.

          .

        • $8194357

          10X
          Quit being DC communist lemmings…

    • Onslaught1066

      I predict Mike Quinn will be impeached on the grounds that he is too conservative by a vote of three to two.

      • $8194357

        He runnin for union boss?

        • Onslaught1066

          Dog catcher

          • $8194357

            Resident of the White House hungry again?

          • two_amber_lamps

            What? I didn’t think an impeached municipal judge (whatever the f#%k that is) could run for office? Isn’t that some kind of felony?

    • Gern Blanston

      Funny how ND econmomy has been so strong with Republican leadership, even before the recent oil boom. But our ideas are backward, I guess. If only we were as enlightened as California or New York or our neighbor Minnesota….

    • $8194357

      Keep your trust in God;
      Your president is an idiot.

  • LastBestHope

    Romney by 6% popular, 323 electoral, GOP majority in the Senate, House GOP increases it majority. A wave election. The liberals, progressives, socialists, communists, Islamists and American Pravda media are going to take a big hit today. A huge defeat for their agendas.

    But they will be back. They will, as they they did during Reagan and Bush, undermine at every turn. Their minions at EPA will seek to stop our nations drive for energy independence. Their Pravda media will seek to discredit the mandate of 2012 election, as they did the mandate of 2010 election. The voices they have left in Congress will block and delay the changes our nation needs. Oh no my conservative friends, this war with those who want our Constitution made irrelevant will continue.

    “You must remember, my fellow-citizens, that eternal vigilance by the people is the price of liberty, and that you must pay the price if you wish to secure the blessing. It behooves you, therefore, to be watchful in your States as well as in the Federal Government.” — Andrew Jackson, Farewell Address, March 4, 1837

    The CLOCK is ticking: http://www.usdebtclock.org/ Our DEBT = the United States of America in free fall.

    • Grizzler1

      LBH, Always the most delusionally optimistic of the nutters. Do you EVER get tired of being constantly wrong?

  • SportsDoc

    Republican sweep in ND is an easy call.

    President: well it comes down to the “Sandy” effect, which has blunted Romney’s momentum. If Romney doesn’t win either Ohio or PA, he loses. If he wins one of those, he wins. I predict Romney wins Ohio and loses PA, so he narrowly wins, and it will likely be contested.

    House: Democrats gain about 5 seats, but don’t get a majority.

    Senate: Republicans gain 2 seats, but don’t get a majority.

    I just hope we know something before we go to bed tonight!

    • Tim Heise

      I agree with your analysis.

    • The Fighting Czech

      I agree also, except with Sandy. the first few days of the hurricane, I think Obama got a positive bump. But all the mayhem that reared has reared its ugly head, after Obama went back to campaigning as usual… I think may have eradicated any positive effects away. In fact I wouldnt be surprised if he doest take a hit on the popular vote in That area, Not enough to effect the electorial out come, but Im gonna guess he’s a lot less popular this week then last in those areas…

  • Tim Heise

    I fear that the post election will be similiar to Bush v. Gore in 2000 which would decrease voter confidence which may evenually have disasterous externalities.

  • Neiman

    This is a hard one to predict, but I think to our everlasting regret it will be Obama by a very narrow margin, he still leads most of the swing states and Democrats usually out vote Republicans.

    • http://realitybasedbob.sayanythingblog.com/ realitybasedbob

      We agree again, Old Pal!
      What a glorious day.
      (not the regret part, ya know, the American people re-elect President Obama part)

      • Neiman

        No, we do not agree at all, we don’t even speak the same language, yours is the language of hell.

        • Tim Heise

          Nerdy Thought: What is the language of hell? Is it a romantic language? Maybe a combo of . . . [i have problems]

          • Neiman

            It means he uses the same English words, but they are twisted into things that are evil. An example would be he, like all liberals, talk of abortion as reproductive rights and health care planning, when it is actually cold blooded murder, mass infanticide. You cannot trust a word he writes, as they all (words) have different meanings to him than to decent, God fearing people.

            It sounds like he and you speak the same language, But, I will not allow him to high jack another thread with his games.

          • Hannitized, Proofs obsession

            Is that anything like the talk of “defending our Freedom” while killing innocent Iraqi’s, just to institute American Democracy in Iraq…..and destabilizing the state?

          • Neiman

            To equate acts of war, whether a justifiable war or not being only a matter of subjective, partisan opinion; against the deliberate, conscious, mass slaughter of helpless, innocent babies shows a defect in your reasoning, not mine.

            Doublespeak is an art form of all politicians, of which the Democrats and all liberals are the professionals, the Gold Medal winners.

          • $8194357

            LIES and HATE

        • http://realitybasedbob.sayanythingblog.com/ realitybasedbob

          No, yours is the language of hell.

          • Neiman

            After you confess Jesus as your only Savior and absolute Lord and use the Bible to prove your points, as I have with you many, many times; then you may have a right to say that, until then, your being outside of Christ, you can only have the language of hell.

          • http://realitybasedbob.sayanythingblog.com/ realitybasedbob

            If being outside Christ is the test, you have no language at all, Old Pal.

          • Neiman

            I confess Him as savior and Lord, you deny Him as both, now who is outside Christ? Prove your allegations with the Bible!

            Also, notice that it is baptism that puts us into Christ so that we can be saved. Galatians 3:27, “For as many of you as were baptized into Christ have put on Christ.”This is the only way a person can get into Christ. The preposition into indicates a change of relationship. You can search from the front to the back of your Bible, and you will find no other way to get into Christ except by being baptized into Christ.

            Also Romans 6:3 says the same thing, “Or do you not know, that as
            many of us as were baptized into Christ Jesus were baptized into
            his death?” So the only way we can get into Christ is to be baptized
            into Christ. Either a person has been baptized into Christ, or he is still outside of Christ. We are either in or we are out. Have you been baptized into Christ in order to be saved and have your sins
            forgiven?

          • http://realitybasedbob.sayanythingblog.com/ realitybasedbob

            Old Pal, you’ve twisted the Good News to fit your hate filled ideology.

            You make up new god rules every day to suit your seething hardheartedness.

          • Neiman

            If you have anything intelligent to say about the election – fine, otherwise shut up. You have rejected Christ and the Bible and I am not interested in anything you have to say on the subject.

          • http://realitybasedbob.sayanythingblog.com/ realitybasedbob

            Old Pal, I agree with you and hope you’re correct when you wrote: ” it will be Obama by a very narrow margin”.

            Do you think your opinion is intelligent?

          • chris

            You must use science and empirical logic to prove your point!!! If the Bible happens to agree with it, then all the better for you.

          • Neiman

            Read “The Case for God,” wherein a former atheist and journalist has interviewed top scientists from every discipline and has shown to any open minded man that science and logic prove the existence of God and rather than oppose the Bible, it supports intelligent design.

            You won’t, because you fear having to submit to God and having to accept His salvation or suffer conscious everlasting punishings. Yours is the closed mind, opposed to science and logic, you are a disciple of the religion of godless science.

            Now, let’s get back to the election and your president Obama and how he is destroying America.

          • chris

            Karen Armstrong is the author of that book, and she started out as a Roman Catholic Nun and then switched over to a more liberal view of Christianity. I didn’t read where she was ever an atheist. Based on her writing style, she sounds more new-age than anything else, as she likes to mix the ideas and terminology of various religions. She talks a lot about eastern religions and even Islam. She believes in religious tolerance and compassion. In fact she has become famous with her book, “The compassionate face of religion”, which even the Dali Lama has endorsed. I’m surprised you use her has an argument against what you think I believe in, because I happen to agree with her for the most part.

            Her book, “The Case for God”, simply argues against atheism and tries to show evidence that there is a creator of life and the universe. I would actually enjoy reading it because I enjoy researching what evidence there is regarding God and the supernatural. Another book I’ve been meaning to read is “behind the Cosmic veil”, but it’s not available via ebook yet.

          • Neiman

            That is a totally different book, it is outside in my car, it was written by a man and I will give you the necessary information later in the day so you can research.

          • chris

            You’ve stumbled upon some pretty good reading material, but I don’t think it helps your case. I’ll wait for your other book.

          • Neiman

            All the evidence is against you, you cannot ever escape in face of the unmistakable proof of God’s existence – all life, everywhere, provides us with objective, conclusive evidence of complex design and design CANNOT exist without the existence of a preexisting Designer greater than the things designed. random mutations over time, no matter how long the time cannot result in design.

            Psalsm 19:1 “The heavens declare the glory of God; the skies proclaim the work of his hands.”

          • chris

            “all life, everywhere”, is not evidence of anything. There are certain scientific mysteries that raise questions and seem to indicate that the universe does not act alone, but these mysteries are far from being actual evidence of anything.

            Mutations have been proven to lead to evolution, as we see it all the time in virus and bacteria, as well as plant life like the coral reef. But it doesn’t always lead to evolution. Mutations can be harmful, they can be neutral, or they can be beneficial to an organism.

            Your simplistic view of reality forces you to have erroneous ideas about a lot of things. I believe there is a God, but I also believe in evolution. I’m a big fan of there being a Grand Architect who created this self-sustaining universe and others like it. I hope in my lifetime there will be real and direct scientific evidence of God, or at least of a metaphysical world.

          • Neiman

            Do you really think you saying “Your simplistic view of reality forces you to have erroneous ideas about a lot of things.” is the path to honest debate, disaparaging my intellect and powers of reason?

            We are getting way of the topic of this thread, so hopefully today I will open one in the Reader Blogs based on “The Case for God” wherein we can debate the matter without high jacking this thread and I will save your comments and reply under that thread.

          • chris

            Sounds good to me.

          • $8194357

            The lanquage of Heaven is
            Praise and Love of God..
            Your father is the father of LIES
            and you as well as all leftist “ideologs”
            speak it fluently..

    • brenarlo

      I agree with this.

      • Neiman

        That means another four years of unadulterated hell and possible dictatorship, with a slide into full blown socialism and our demise on the world stage. So, I hope I am wrong, Obama will destroy America.

        • http://realitybasedbob.sayanythingblog.com/ realitybasedbob

          So, Old Pal, you still want the the guy you’ve called an anti Christ false god worshiper to beat President Obama?

          • Neiman

            Lair , I am not your damn pal.

            Liar, I am only opposed to Obama, as he is destroying America and all our precious Judeo-Christian values, our morality and decency. I am not voting for either man, you are voting for the non-Christian Obama.

          • HG

            Did you vote for Romney?

          • Neiman

            NO! While I respect the right of the free will choice and the conscience of each believer to do as they are convinced in their spirit (own hearts); I have made it clear I cannot vote for either man. Not Obama because he is an atheist IMO and is destroying America. I cannot vote Romney, even though he would be far better for America than Obama, because he serves a false god and a false Christ, he is an idolater.

            For the believer, based on Scripture, this world is not our home, we are aliens, we only tabernacle here in the flesh for a season, but we have only one Lord and one God and we are citizens of His Kingdom. So, IMO we must serve Him only in our votes and no matter what that means for America and the world, our allegiance is to Him and His Word alone.

            When once we kicked God out of the public square and the affairs of this nation, our fate was doomed; no matter who is elected, we are on a crash course to self destruction.

          • HG

            Neiman, I’m going to give this one last try.
            There are numerous examples in the bible of believers who served unbelieving leaders. Daniel, Shadrak, Meshak, Abednigo, etc. One in particular had to go into an idol’s temple as service to his leader, and this was excused. Christianity does not exclude Christians from participating because the no Christian is on the ballot.
            Your outlook is similar to that doctrine of election which sits on its hands because it believes everyone’s eternal destiny is predetermined. There is nothing in the bible that teaches that there is no hope for America. Only God knows the future, you and I do not. We do know that we have an opportunity to act today to prevent a dismal future. That is our responsibility. That is our privilege. That is our right. And that at a great cost of American lives.
            If you cannot reconcile these facts with your conscience, then so be it. But please take a moment to reconsider.

          • Hannitized, Proofs obsession

            So you are going to vote for the non-Christian because you hate the idea of taking care of the poor, loving your brother and turning the other cheek?

          • HG

            One minute you’re “hitting it” with your co-worker or trying to avoid STD’s. Now you’re a preacher of Christianity?
            Good God, H. You take yourself way to seriously. You’re a joke, boy. Wake up.

          • Neiman

            There is no proof by his words or actions that Obama is a Christian, except his attending a hate filled, racial separatist Church misusing Jesus Name.

            It is a fallacy that Republicans do not want to care for the poor, the most generous people in giving have proven to be conservatives. What they do not believe in is remote charity, the state robbing them and giving to the poor in their name, solely to garner votes for Democrats.

          • America

            And you will again vote for the Muslim Marxist who is following the path, hopes and dreams of his mentors.

          • Hannitized, Proofs obsession

            Real Americans are voting for the only Christian in the race who cares about the middle class, instituted instituted laws that made health coverage available to all Americans and who had stabilized the economy that was destroyed by a clumsy bumbler in chief. Americans all across the country will vote for Obama while a large group of fools will vote for the candidate who does not believe in Christ, but believes in magic underwear and helping the ultra wealthy….and is a Mexican Socialist.

          • Neiman

            There are numerous examples in the bible of believers who served unbelieving leaders. Daniel, Shadrak, Meshak, Abednigo,
            etc. One in particular had to go into an idol’s temple as service to his leader, and this was excused.

            First, Daniel was a rare exception, not a rule. Those were Jews, not Christians and with rare exceptions, all entanglements with the world
            always corrupted the people of God. To meet Christ, one must go out from the city (world) and into the wilderness to find Christ, as Golgotha was outside of Jerusalem, Christ is only found there, on Calvary, not in the world. I have written about such examples, there in the story of Jehoshaphat, we find that whenever a believer enters into connection with the world, he lays himself open to be persuaded by the world, to enter upon an unchristain course, ” with disastrous results. “You adulterous people, don’t you know that friendship with the world is hatred toward God? Anyone who chooses to be a friend of the world becomes an enemy of God.” James 4:4. John 15:19 “If you belonged to the world, it would love you as its own. As it is, you do not belong to the world, but I have chosen you out of the world. That is why the world hates you.”

            Christianity does not exclude Christians from participating because the no Christian is on the ballot.

            God has said we are to be light and salt in this world, to be a goodly influence upon the world and that means some will be called to public service in elective office and we will vote as we are able, as long as
            it does not violate God’s Word. I have often said that for a person to call themselves Christian and vote Democrat is a contradiction in terms, an opposing of oneself, as that party was the one behind
            kicking God out of the Public Square, that is the driving force behind our national fetal holocaust, the debased homosexual lifestyle and gay marriage, all of which are contrary to God’s Word. Can I then in the next breath say, ‘Christian brother it is okay to vote for a man (Romney) that serves a false god, a truly golden idol and is part of a religion that is antichrist?’ How can I say set aside your Christian conscience that your financial future may be more secure, you can serve God and Mammon?

            Your outlook is similar to that doctrine of election which
            sits on its hands because it believes everyone’s eternal destiny is
            predetermined.

            You judge falsely, I do not believe in election or predestination as you stated, though I will not throw it out of the Bible and say it does not exist. It means before the foundation of the world was set, God in His perfect foreknowledge knew who would accept His Salvation, being then the elected ones by freewill choice and that those people were predestined to be conformed by the Holy Spirit into the image of Christ.

            There is nothing in the bible that teaches that there is no hope for America.

            One must know Christ and God’s Word and use reason in looking at His dealings with men. First, surely you do not doubt the wrath of God in Judgment on the whole world and then think America will be spared? Surely, you know that for those whom God has given His blessings, much will be required in judging them? We were the most powerful, wealthiest nation in all human history, because we honored and feared Nature’s God; and, when we kicked Him out of our affairs, surely you know that the Sixties were filled with the Vietnam war, the drug revolution, riots, the sexual revolution, assassinations, it was the beginning of our national fetal holocaust and the birth of gay rights; and curse after curse, have fallen upon us and we are increasingly atheist. Surely, without national repentance and a turning away from our evil, God would have to repent in sackcloth and ashes for what He did to Sodom and Gomorrah, if He did not judge us more harshly?

            Only God knows the future, you and I do not. We do know that we have an opportunity to act today to prevent a dismal
            future. That is our responsibility. That is our privilege. That is our right.
            And that at a great cost of American lives. If you cannot reconcile these facts with your conscience, then so be it. But please take a moment to reconsider.

            That is because you do not put God first in all things, the things of this world and its comforts are more important than your submission to God in all things. God has shown us He will judge the whole world and He has told us we Christians are strangers just passing through this evil world. Maybe it is your Christian conscience that has been seared that you could vote for a self-confessed idolater. Maybe you should, on your knees seek God’s Will and place that above your political desires.

          • HG

            Didn’t even make a dent.

          • Neiman

            1 Corinthians 5:11
            But now I am writing you that you must not associate with anyone who
            calls himself a brother but is sexually immoral or greedy, an idolater or a slanderer, a drunkard or a swindler. With such a man do not even eat.

            II Corinthians 6:17
            “Therefore come out from them and be separate, says the Lord. Touch no unclean thing, and I will receive you.”

            Jeremiah 15:17
            I never sat in the company of revelers, never made merry with them; I
            sat alone because your hand was on me and you had filled me with
            indignation.

            Revelation 18:4
            Then I heard another voice from heaven say: “Come out of her, my
            people, so that you will not share in her sins, so that you will not
            receive any of her plagues;

            It is not enough to not engage in idolatry, which God hates; but for the child of God it is better to not have fellowship with idolaters, to walk with them even by your vote or to in any matter touch anyone or anything that hints of idolatry. A Christian will not be condemned ever, but they cannot expect not to suffer for foolishness either in disobeying God.

            I leave it to your conscience, if you truly, in your spirit, believe it is not a sin to vote for a self admitted false Christ idolater, for the sake of your pocketbook; then it is not a sin, though you will not be kept from the consequences of voting for evil.

          • http://realitybasedbob.sayanythingblog.com/ realitybasedbob

            We agree again, Old Pal!
            You are not my damn pal.

            You support the anti Christ worshiper though.

    • Grizzler1

      And nieman…at least you are realistic about politics, if not spritual matters…Hat tip to you for seeing reality in this particular case.

  • Phil Gay

    AMT could sock millions of new households with hefty tax
    If Congress doesn’t act by year’s end, more than 26 million more households will have to pay big tax bills, immediately.

    WASHINGTON – The best hope for a deal to avoid the “fiscal cliff” may lie with the alternative minimum tax, an obscure provision of the tax code that is about to become alarmingly relevant to millions of middle-class taxpayers.

    Unless Congress acts by the end of the year, more than 26 million households will for the first time face the AMT, which threatens to tack $3,700, on average, onto taxpayers’ bills for the current tax year. Because those people have never paid the AMT, they have no idea they are in its crosshairs — put there by a broader stalemate over tax policy that has kept Congress from limiting the AMT’s reach.

    Forget about the much-publicized tax hikes set to take effect for 2013 — if you have a couple of children and annual income over $75,000, chances are good that your taxes are on track to go up substantially for 2012.

    Residents of high-cost urban areas would be hit hardest, by official estimates.

    Unlike most tax hikes in the fiscal cliff, including the expiration of the Bush era income tax cuts, the AMT bill would come due almost immediately. And tax experts say it would be extremely disruptive to try to fix the AMT after the 2012 tax year closes Dec. 31.

    Officials with the Internal Revenue Service and the Treasury Department declined to comment on the effect of adjusting the AMT after December. But congressional tax aides said the IRS has advised Congress that trying to fix the AMT after the filing season begins in January would lead to processing delays of more than two months for nearly half of all returns — significantly postponing the delivery of refunds.

    “That would be a disaster, an unmitigated disaster for the taxpayers of the United States. It’s just not possible to do that,” said Nina Olson, national taxpayer advocate at the IRS. Olson noted that many people count on their refunds, which average around $3,000, to cover immediate needs.

    Lobbyists and aides in both parties say it is hard to imagine Congress letting the new year arrive without legislation to restrict the AMT. Optimists say the need to fix the problem could force Republicans and Democrats to come together on a plan to address the fiscal cliff, which comprises $500 billion in tax hikes and automatic spending cuts set to take effect in January, potentially snuffing out the country’s economic recovery.

    The alternative minimum tax was created in 1969 to prevent the super-rich from using credits, deductions and other shelters to avoid taxes altogether. In simple terms, it’s a flat tax with two brackets, 26 percent and 28 percent. Breaks for dependents, medical expenses and state and local taxes are all disallowed.

    Instead, taxpayers get a single big deduction, called the AMT exemption, which usually rises with inflation. Taxpayers who owe more under AMT rules than under normal tax rules must pay the higher amount.

    Over the decades, the AMT has ceased to affect the extremely rich, because their tax bills are higher than the AMT rates. Instead, the inflation-adjusted AMT has come to target 4 million to 5 million taxpayers with annual incomes between $200,000 and $1 million.

    This year, however, a gridlocked Congress has failed to approve the inflation “patch” that prevents millions of people from falling into the AMT’s grasp. The last patch expired in December. If a new one is not enacted, the AMT will hit 31 million taxpayers this year, reaching deeply into the middle class.

    Nationwide, nearly one in five taxpayers is in line to pay the AMT. And while the levy is causing bipartisan nightmares, urban states — which tend to lean Democratic — are by far the most vulnerable.

    That poses a challenge for Democrats planning to use the fiscal cliff as leverage to force Republicans to raise taxes on the wealthy to help reduce the federal budget deficit. President Obama has threatened to veto legislation that extends the Bush tax cuts for the wealthiest 3 percent of households, a top GOP priority.

  • Game

    In order to for Romney to win, and the Karl Rove scenario to work out, he would have to pull upsets in 5 states (OH, WI, VA, CO and NH) Rove is fond of saying that he thinks that in every poll of the hundreds that have been done this election cycle, republicans have always been under counted.

    However, polls also tend to under count young people and lower income people, who tend to be more likely to vote for Obama. So I think it is a wash and the totality of the polls will be much closer to reality than Rove is hoping for.

    Obama 303
    Mitt 235

    I predict the Senate will be 52-46-2 with Harry Ried back for one more term.

    I also predict that Michelle Bachmann will keep her job tonight, however, I predict that her subsidy from the taxpayers may end.

    • gary gulrud

      ” would have to pull upsets in 5 states (OH, WI, VA, CO and NH)”
      Tough luck, you’re hole card is a duce.

  • NDSiouxFan

    I subscribe to the Dick Morris theory that the Republican vote has been underpolled. I am fearful however that the GOP may not win back the Senate. I hope I am wrong.

    Romney with 280+ EV
    Berg wins it +7
    All other state offices go GOP, including the babe Baesler.

    • davo

      How’d that work out for you?

  • Phil Gay

    If JFK was alive today with his beliefs intact which political party is closer to his core values? answer neither he would be considered a extreme right wing radical. If you have the courage youtube his speeches and judge for yourself. If a pig calls himself a dog he is still a pig.

  • Flamejob5

    Unlike ’08, I have a feeling the “silent majority” will make an appearance. Mitt will win handily.

    • Neiman

      From your keyboard to God’s ear. Four more years of Obama will destroy America. He will never work with the GOP and with the continued Congressional stagnation, he will rule by executive order.

      • HG

        Did you decide to vote for Romney?

        • Neiman

          NO!

          You can also be sure I did not vote for Mahdi Obama.

          See other reply under this thread for my reasons.

          • HG

            Some would argue not voting for Romney is a vote for Obama.
            See my reply to your reasons.

          • Hannitized, Proofs obsession

            Maybe he has principles, albeit bigoted and hateful ones.

          • HG

            You know nothing of principle, H. Quit fooling yourself.

          • two_amber_lamps

            Oh he knows all about principle…. self-serving principle that is….

          • Hannitized, Proofs obsession

            You have turned your back on many of our most basic and cherished Christian beliefs and can not name a single principle that I betray. I am 100 times more principally disciplined than you are.

          • Gary

            You being a lying tax cheat, your criticism is worth what was paid for it.

          • Hannitized, Proofs obsession

            Real Americans like me will prevail all across the country.

  • JoelHeitkampisanAss

    Mitt wins. Not 100% sure of the path, but I think he takes Florida, NC, VA, Colorado, New Hamp, and Iowa. I think he takes Ohio and has a real chance in Wisconsin. Just don’t know about PA. Traditional liberal strongholds like Oregon to Obama by 5, CA and WA by 8 or 9. Total drop in enthusiasm for the dictator.
    Berg goes by 5-7.
    Nebraska, Montana, and Wisconsin to GOP. Unclear on Scott Brown or Todd Akin.
    Joel, Heidi, and Kent Conrad (who gave us a sneak peak yesterday) will blame Karl Rove and “outside money” as the reason why.
    The liberals are grooming Mac Schneider or his cousin Jaspar to run against Cramer in 2014.
    Cramer wins by 12.
    Sorums wins the Gov…errrr…not. Dalrymple wins big. Sorum clears two percent.
    Conservatives unite and tune out Joke Heitkamp and tell their friends. Call out the so called Republicans who frequent his show.
    Byberg, unfortunately, drops his race by 5. Minnesota goes Obama by about the same margin.
    DuWayne Hendrickson gets six votes out of Minot. Primaries Cramer in 2014.
    Duane Sand runs for PSC next go around.
    Say Anything Blog keeps rockin’ it.

    • http://sayanythingblog.com Rob

      Say Anything Blog keeps rockin’ it.

      The most accurate prediction you could have possibly made. ;-)

  • HG

    Romney 277
    Obama 253
    Democrats shenanigans in Philly may ignite Republican voters. But I’m not counting on a win in Penn.

  • spud

    Obama wins 303 electoral. Berg by 6. Dem’s keep senate most likely no seats change and pick up a half dozen seats in congress but repubs have it the redistricting makes it impossible for dems. Big upset Bachmann just think everyone in her district tired of her act. Biggest losers those billionaires and how they wasted there money on national level. Big question for republicans is how do we get larger share of female vote and hispanic vote or latino vote. If they don’t do better with latter they have huge problem down the road.

  • Liberty or Death

    any true Republican needs to watch this short video. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j8801lDriKo&feature=related

  • grammie

    think it is going to be so close we won’t really know untill the military ballots are counted

    I hope that Heidi goes running back to brother Joel so if we do listen to radio we can hear why Joel thinks any one who voted for Berg is wrong and stupid.I will just giggle at him and then shut him off. Dalrymple will be winner big time.Only hope that the measures are against 5 and 4 & 3 1st 2 yes Kristen for schools all the rest will be republicans

  • Phil Gay

    Does it matter who wins as for both parties it is the appearance of CHANGE but in reality it’s BUSINESS AS USUAL! Look at the past 4 years for the proof.

    • $8194357

      yup
      Chigago corruption on a national scale.
      Paid for by taxpayer funding to boot…

  • mickey_moussaoui

    I’ll stick with my prediction from the last 6 months. This election will be very similar to the Wisconsin recall election. The silent majority will determine the outcome. Good people are fed up with statist liberalism. Many citizens don’t want to get vocal on politics but that doesn’t mean they are not paying attention. We have two types of voters this time around; Blood Suckers and Bleeders. We are tired of Ob☭ma’s documented pathological lying. My gut instincts tell me this will be a historic landslide and a world-class repudiation of Ob☭ma’s radical and risky socialist agenda. It’s Reagan-Carter all over again.

    Romney/Ryan

    Ob☭ma loses – America wins

    Justice for Chris Stevens and the three American heros

    • HG

      I admire your optimism.

    • Hannitized, Proofs obsession

      Is America tired of Romney’s pathological lying? Or since you are a socialist from Canada, are you just trying to fit in with the radicals from the right by talking Tea Party stupidity?

      • mickey_moussaoui

        Romney hasn’t lied. Obama hasn’t gone one day without lying. If you can’t recognize the obvious you are stupid.

        • $8194357

          All he sees are other folks knee caps..
          What can ya expect?

        • Hannitized, Proofs obsession

          Wow…..seriously? You don’t think Romney has lied…..hell son, you can’t even determine a single principled position Romney holds. You don’t even know who or what you voted for.

          You floundering idiot.

      • mickey_moussaoui

        BTW dumbass, I have been an American for longer than you have. I have senority over you, foolish child. Also, Canada is not socialist. Not that you would know.

        • Hannitized, Proofs obsession

          So in your right-wing dinger mind, America is a now Socialist and Canada is not? Who takes you seriously, and why? You clearly display your allegiance is to Canda and your resentment and hatred for America.

      • two_amber_lamps

        Says the bolshevik from Hawaii in the yellow stained boardies…. you’ve no room to name-call Comrade.

        • Hannitized, Proofs obsession

          After the election, please let me know where I can mail you a clue.

          • two_amber_lamps

            1234 Karl Marx Lane
            Eat S#$t, ND 69696

            Chrissakes dude, do something about yourself… I can smell the pi$$ all the way over here.

  • NDConservative2011

    I agree with Rob – A Republican Sweep in North Dakota, and with Mitt Romney winning by more then the current polls now show.

  • HG

    Philly Democrats don’t care about election laws. This is the desperation of democrat thugs.

    http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/11/06/judge-issuing-order-to-reinstate-booted-philadelphia-election-officials/

  • Knightman

    Electoral College: Romney 275; Obama 263
    U.S. Senate +1 Republican gain
    U.S. House +2 Republican gain
    Berg 54%
    Cramer 60%
    Dalrymple 67%
    Christmann 56%
    Baesler 51%
    State House +1 Republican gain
    State Senate +1 Republican gain

  • Hannitized, Proofs obsession

    I predict that after the election, SAB conservatives will still be hateful, moronic hypocrites that let their paranoia overwhelm their better judgement. And no matter who wins, they will continue to double down on their radical moves to the right and become even more out of touch as they oppose anything the Democrats do, even if the Democrats are doing something the previously determined was a good idea.

    In addition to that, Ohio will probably be too close to call for a couple days, the election will likely be too close to call early on and there is a likelihood that both sides will cry foul.

    Voter suppression in Florida will cost a lot of Democrat votes as early voting was shut down in a plan to suppress the Democrat tally’s.

    Romney has momentum, but he hasn’t been able to flip Ohio, despite all the lies. It’s unlikely that he could take VA, but will probably take PA. Colorado will go to Obama.

    • http://sayanythingblog.com Rob

      Somebody is feeling cranky on election day.

      Here’s my prediction for Hannitized: He’ll still behave himself like a child, insulting everyone who disagrees with him, and then acting outraged when they give it right back to him.

      • two_amber_lamps

        10x

    • Tim

      No one likes you, everyone just laughs at you.

      • Hannitized, Proofs obsession

        You need to grow up. You are a fool and an immature boy.

      • The one you hate

        You are wrong.
        I like him and never laugh at him.

    • mickey_moussaoui

      “hateful, moronic hypocrites that let their paranoia overwhelm their better judgement”…Project much Handiwipe?
      The funny part of that entire diatribe was how hatefull and paranoid it was.
      You are such a tool.

      • Onslaught1066

        And hypocritical, don’t forget hypocritical.

        • two_amber_lamps

          And histrionic…

          • Onslaught1066

            Is that the same thing as a bleeding hysterectomy?

            That would of course make hanniturd a Her-mophiliac.

      • Hannitized, Proofs obsession

        Please!

  • dfm

    Romney wins the popular vote, I’m not sure who wins the Electoral College. I will not be surprised by either outcome. My brain and gut tell me two different outcomes, and I can’t trust my brain.

    The senate remains controlled by the D, with 52 seats. Both the Ds and Rs will have new leaders. House is 203 Ds.

    The anti gay-marriage folks will lose their first campaign out of 31 tries. Not sure where, it is on the ballot in 4 states, probably loses in WA, maybe MD and ME, with MN the least likely.

    • http://sayanythingblog.com Rob

      Conspicuously absent is your prediction about the ND Senate race…

      • dfm

        I said I would do it at the end of voting. You can read or not read my absence of information as a leading indicator. If you want to know now, send me a private email.

        • http://sayanythingblog.com Rob

          Done.

  • $8194357

    http://atlasshrugs2000.typepad.com/atlas_shrugs/2012/11/vote.html

    It’s do or die, folks. I do not believe America is so crippled, our young so
    brainwashed, as to re-elect this monster and enemy of freedom.

    It is clearly a no-brainer, and therein lies the problem — so many
    no-brainers are voting, misled by a completely corrupt enemedia. But this is
    America. And I believe.

    Pray. Hard.

  • Neiman

    Democrats crapping on Constitution as usual

    Funny business in Philly: GOP officials booted, Black Panthers return — and Obama at polling site

    Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/11/06/judge-issuing-order-to-reinstate-booted-philadelphia-election-officials/#ixzz2BT5DqhZk

    Obama Poster Hanging in Florida Polling Station
    http://mrctv.org/blog/obama-poster-hanging-florida-polling-statio

    Former DNC Chair Howard Dean: The Only Way We Lose Is Through Fraud

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FuTQqm1C99g

    Philly GOP: Poll inspectors being ousted for Dems

    http://washingtonexaminer.com/philly-gop-poll-inspectors-being-ousted-for-dems/article/2512714#.UJlWE2fmD9m

  • Mike Peterson

    Mike Peterson wins State House spot in District 42!! That guy is awesome! Oh wait.

    • http://sayanythingblog.com Rob

      Ha.

  • Guest

    Mike Peterson wins State House spot in District 42!! That guy is awesome! Oh wait.

  • $8194357

    AN ACORN BY ANYOTHER NAME IS STILL AN ACORN
    Just how do leftist get a “fair and level” playing field?

    By shreading the Republican voter registrations they collected in Penn.

    and turning in only the ones who registered as Democrat, perhaps?

    http://atlasshrugs2000.typepad.com/atlas_shrugs/2012/11/romney-rally-in-pennslyvania-enormous-monumental-gigantic-massive.html

    Quote:

    Brietbart via atlas shrugs:

    Meanwhile, the left fascists are trying to win the only way they know how,
    cheating and voter fraud. Will the DOJ launch an investigation into this voter
    suppression? This is the same city where the Black Panther party was
    threatening voters with billy clubs at polling places on Election day 2008:

    “Philly Activist Group Shreds GOP Voter Registrations” Breitbart

    The Community Voters Project is a “non-partisan” lefty organization
    whose mission is to register
    people to vote, with a particular emphasis on minorities. In the 2008 election,
    they had offices in 10 states and
    registered around 300,000 minority voters. So far, so good. This year, however,
    it seems they aren’t registering everyone who wants to vote. Outside a CVP office in Philadelphia, for example,
    they shredded and threw away numerous registration forms. A number of these were
    for people trying to register as a Republican.

    A citizen-journalist came across a large bag of trash outside the CVP office
    in Philadelphia. Glancing at it, the citizen saw what looked like shredded
    registration forms. The pictures in this post are from CVP’s trash. The photo
    above clearly shows that the voter who submitted the shredded registration form was registering as a
    Republican.

    You’re right if you think this sounds a lot like ACORN and its litany of
    problems with voter fraud. CVP used to work along side ACORN, and several of its
    employees have worked for both organizations. CVP has also had significant
    problems with fraud. Several of its employees were indicted in 2008 for voter registration fraud.

    Groups like CVP applaud themselves for ensuring that any eligible citizen is
    able to register and vote. If their efforts, because of where they focus their attention, result in registering more voters who are likely to vote Democrat, there’s nothing wrong with that. If a person is eligible, they should register and be encouraged to vote. But, if they come across someone who wants to register as a Republican, can they not shred the registration form? See, with groups like CVP, it isn’t really about extending the voting franchise. Its about electing Democrats.

    The picture below will give you a sense of the scale of CVP’s fraud. Now that
    Pennsylvania has come into its own as a Battleground state, more attention needs
    to be paid to CVP and its efforts in Philadelphia. And it looks like CVP will
    come out of another election facing indictments and possible criminal proceedings.

  • Davo

    “Prediction” and “wishcasting” are two separate things–y’all know that, right?

  • Get Real

    Hate to break to the 99% of Republicans that view this site, but pathological liar Mittens is gonna lose to Obama.

    • Onslaught1066

      Hey Davo, try this you’ll love it on your roast or mix it in with your coffee or spread it on your toast.

      [IMG]http://i39.tinypic.com/2m7gppt.jpg[/IMG]

    • mickey_moussaoui

      hey, Sybil Hanni, which one of your multiple personalities is this now? Is this the little girl abused by her fat ass mother in the moo moo?

      • Hannitized, Proofs obsession

        You are a whackadoo and this is why real Americans across the country reject your radial conspiracies and thoughts. You are a Canadian Socialist destroying true conservatism from within.

        More real Americans think like me than think like you.

    • NAC

      i’M PREDICTING THAT OBAMA WILL TAKE AN EARLY LEAD…UNTIL ALL THE REPUBLICANS GET OFF WORK

  • ShortAndBald

    An oldie but a goodie – – I predict Obama will lead early, but then the Republicans will get off work and vote…

  • leuchtman

    Wow, Rob. The level of interesting theories here is off the chart.

    President: Obama +1 Pop. 294EV, wins OH, VA, NV, NH, IA, WI, PA.

    US Senate: Berg +3, no matter how I look at it, I can’t see HH winning the 62% of the independent vote she’ll need. If you’re right about the voting in the oil patch it could be as high as +5

    House: Cramer +15

    Gov: Dalrymple +25

    Constitutional offices: GOP across the board.

    Legislature: Dems will pick up a couple of seats in the east. State House D+3, Senate D+2, in part because there is really nowhere to go but up.

    US Senate makeup: D+1 (wins in MA, IN and ME offset by ND and NE)
    US House: D+5 (GOP holds control)

  • Rick Olson

    President: Mitt Romney — Not sure of the path he’ll take to get there, but he will get over the 270 electoral vote threshhold.
    U.S. Senator (ND): Rick Berg. Sticking with my 5-to-9 point margin of victory for Berg.
    U.S. House of Representatives (ND At Large): Kevin Cramer
    Governor/Lt. Governor: Jack Dalrymple/Drew Wrigley.

    I agree. Pray hard. Our country cannot afford another four years of Barack Obama in the White House. His promise of “Hope and Change” has failed miserably. He has not made the case that he should keep his job.

    In the words of Donald Trump: “Mr. President, You’re Fired!”

  • spud

    Pundits trying to keep us interested but take it to bank Obama has been re-elected. Repubs you better figure out how to get greater share of Latino vote because they are not voting for your candidates. Watch out for Kirsten Gilllibrand in 2016.

  • Snarkie

    Predictions Rob, not preferences.

    • Onslaught1066

      I predict that you will succumb to glue poisoning.

      It’s just a coincidence that my prediction is my preference.

      • Snarkie

        I think it might be more than a coincidence, On ‘Mahdi’ Slaught.

        • Onslaught1066

          You may be right at that, Buttfuckle, you may just be right.

  • Snarkie

    “I think Romney is going to win taking Indiana [Murdoch didn’t], Florida [wrong], North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio [wrong], New Hampshire [wrong] and Colorado [wrong] away from Obama who won them all last year [wrong].”

  • Matthew Hawkins

    This is turning into a landslide.

  • Matthew Hawkins

    Democrats retain the Senate!!!!!

  • $8194357

    Hey Rob…
    Taylor said a blogger spins lies with his naives echoing…
    Sound familar? Licken spittle ect..ect..ect..
    would have been proud of the “consecesion speech”

  • Matthew Hawkins

    Fox News just called Ohio.
    President Barack Obama!!!!

  • john

    Typical ND. Not sure if therew is a bigger head in all of politics then Karl Rove although ND has some that run a close second.

  • The Revealer

    Obama will win.

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