Yes, Obama’s Cap And Trade Plan Could Cost You As Much As $3,100/Year

A few weeks ago the GOP released some numbers on Obama’s cap and trade policy which were based on a study done by MIT. The liberals jumped on the GOP, claiming that the numbers were bogus, with even the Wall Street Journal piling but.
But as it turns out, the numbers are actually sound. John McCormack explains:

Many congressional Republicans, including members of the GOP leadership, have claimed that the plan to limit carbon emissions through cap and trade would cost the average household more than $3,100 per year. According to an MIT study, between 2015 and 2050 cap and trade would annually raise an average of $366 billion in revenues (divided by 117 million households equals $3,128 per household, the Republicans reckon).
But on March 24, after interviewing one of the MIT professors who conducted the study on which the GOP relied to produce its estimate, the St. Petersburg Times fact-check unit, Politifact, declared the GOP figure of $3,100 per household was a “Pants on Fire” falsehood. The GOP claim is “just wrong,” MIT professor John Reilly told Politifact. “It’s wrong in so many ways it’s hard to begin.” …
During a lengthy email exchange last week with THE WEEKLY STANDARD, MIT professor John Reilly admitted that his original estimate of cap and trade’s cost was inaccurate. The annual cost would be “$800 per household”, he wrote. “I made a boneheaded mistake in an excel spread sheet. I have sent a new letter to Republicans correcting my error (and to others).”
While $800 is significantly more than Reilly’s original estimate of $215 (not to mention more than Obama’s middle-class tax cut), it turns out that Reilly is still low-balling the cost of cap and trade by using some fuzzy logic. In reality, cap and trade could cost the average household more than $3,900 per year.
The $800 paid annually per household is merely the “cost to the economy [that] involves all those actions people have to take to reduce their use of fossil fuels or find ways to use them without releasing [Green House Gases],” Reilly wrote. “So that might involve spending money on insulating your home, or buying a more expensive hybrid vehicle to drive, or electric utilities substituting gas (or wind, nuclear, or solar) instead of coal in power generation, or industry investing in more efficient motors or production processes, etc. with all of these things ending up reflected in the costs of good and services in the economy.”
In other words, Reilly estimates that “the amount of tax collected” through companies would equal $3,128 per household–and “Those costs do get passed to consumers and income earners in one way or another”–but those costs have “nothing to do with the real cost” to the economy. Reilly assumes that the $3,128 will be “returned” to each household. Without that assumption, Reilly wrote, “the cost would then be the Republican estimate [$3,128] plus the cost I estimate [$800].”

So, really, the cost to we end consumers of energy could be as high as $4,000/year.
Do you have an extra $4,000 sitting around that you can afford to spend on energy? I know I don’t.
But this is what the liberals want. They want to drive up the price of energy to the point where we can’t afford it. This then justifies them offering government assistance to help us pay for the cost of energy that they inflated in the first place. Then, once they’ve got us all on the government dole, they can use their control over our energy consumption for their own purposes.
They’ve done the same thing with health care. Government interference drives up the cost of health care. That drives more people to dependence on the government for health care. And then ultimately, the health care industry is nationalized and the government controls everything.
If the Republicans do one thing this session of Congress, they need to kill cap and trade.

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  • http://Array Mickey

    The left is salivating over cap and trade. They see it as the golden goose that will finance the Green Revolution and save the planet. They actually think this will make converts of China and India.

    Estimates from utilities are that Cap and Trade will raise your electric bill between 25% to 50% in just two years after implementation.

    What’s in your wallet?

  • robert108

    robert108 – You weren’t defending free choice, because I wasn’t attacking it.

    I see you really don’t understand how cause and effect works. I was defending free choice, and it has nothing to do with what you said, or later claimed you didn’t say.

    I don’t care who determines the costs, so long as it’s done accurately (for the record I doubt the government is capable of that).

    Who determines the “accuracy”, then? Same question. If it’s anyone other than the individual involved, you don’t support free choice.

    I would say that the individual can rarely decide the costs of their actions…

    Then you don’t support freedom of choice, as I initially pointed out, no matter what convoluted rationalizations you try.
    Freedom is messy, but it’s better than some totalitarian system which separates the decision process from individuals, in terms of individual actions and choices.

    I am free to choose to spend my money any way I want, whether you approve or not. That is the essence of free people making free choices.
    Hate to break this to you, but everybody makes cost/benefit decisions in their personal life, whether you agree with their decisions or not. It’s just none of your business.

  • http://ndgoon.blogspot.com/ goon

    I can’t afford that much in taxes.

  • sayanything-5371

    Cap and trade is another bullshit Liberal term

    The real purpose of cap and trade, and indeed, of the “climate change” religion is to force the USA to downsize our industrial base so that we don’t consume so much energy and are more like the other countries of the world. Liberals “know” that if we do this it will make them LIKE US, as in “friends”. In reality it will make us LIKE THEM, as in poor.

    Liberals never think about the law of unintended consequences, either. They never think about how we provide a vastly disproportionate amount of the food the world consumes. Downsizing our economic base will cause a lot of hunger in the world. There will be economic instability, war, famine and a host of miseries caused if cap and trade is implemented.

    The change we need is to get new leaders in government and get rid of the idiots we have.

  • http://SayAnythingBlog.com The_Whistler_ofnd

    And of course they’ll blame the oil companies for the outrageous prices.

  • http://bopl.samharris.us/ Paul

    robert108 – You weren’t defending free choice, because I wasn’t attacking it. I don’t care who determines the costs, so long as it’s done accurately (for the record I doubt the government is capable of that). I would say that the individual can rarely decide the costs of their actions (deciding being different from identifying), though they should always be in a position to do the cost/benefit analysis, as you say.

  • Bodhi

    Cap n’ trade will never be implemented because of the threat of lawsuits over the junk science it is based on.

  • docdave

    docdave – You assume without foundation that I oppose nuclear power. Is assuming what substitutes for knowing here?

    No, but playing around with words seems to be your game since you really haven’t stated any position but that you favor an energy surtax that will be used for ‘something’ and then a unknown portion refunded back to the tax payer. Come back when you can clearlyl state your position otherwise I’m through responding to you.

  • http://sayanythingblog.com/ likwidshoe

    Paul – But the money isn’t then burnt, it’s used to achieve administration aims, including tax cuts for most workers.

    So it’s a “tax cut” for “most workers” only after they have a substantial tax increase in their energy bills.

    There’s a word for that: bullshit.

  • docdave

    So Paul I’m going to pay $4000 so I can get a small part of it back. Who benefits from the difference? Some beaurocrats. Wouldn’t it make more sense for me just to keep the $4000,

  • http://SayAnythingBlog.com The_Whistler_ofnd

    You’re a moron if you think you’re going to see that money come back to you.

  • robert108

    robert108 – You’re quick to see hate in others.

    You’re certainly quick to judge on the basis of my defending free choice. Not impressive.

    …based on an understanding of all the costs of their options.

    As determined by who? If you really love free people making free choices, that requires that each individual be the final arbiter of those costs, and how they value them. Don’t do it in a one-sided manner; it’s really about making a cost/benefit decision. In this country, that’s still up to the individual.
    Do you still claim to support free people making free choices, or do you only support the choices that happen to fall within your predetermined ideology?

    Your snotty judgementalism is never an admirable quality, btw.

  • http://bopl.samharris.us/ Paul

    I don’t like cap and trade, but this is an attack that misses the mark. Yes, the entire cost is potentially around $4,000. But the money isn’t then burnt, it’s used to achieve administration aims, including tax cuts for most workers. I don’t know how big they’ll end up being, or how much will be wasted on government programs, but it inevitably reduces that $4,000 figure.

  • http://bopl.samharris.us/ Paul

    docdave – sure, so long as you promise to use less fossil fuel in return :)

  • Stewartized

    Cap and trade is another bullshit Liberal term like “Affirmitive Action” (yes action?) It should be called cap and tax.

  • erick1740

    China will tell us to stick cap and trade up our a$$. They are building a manufacturing juggernaut, while laughing at us. They don’t give a rats ass about environmental issues

  • http://bopl.samharris.us/ Paul

    airset
    huddle
    zoho

    robert108
    1. Asking why I hate free choice (when I don’t) isn’t defending it; a defense requires an attack, which I wasn’t providing.
    2. I don’t care who determines the accuracy – given a truly free market I assume that will sort itself out.
    3. As I said before, individuals don’t get to decide the costs of their actions. For example, if I choose to kill my neighbor I don’t get to decide my punishment, and neither does my neighbor. I do get to identify the cost (likely lifetime imprisonment) and decide if the benefits justify that for me.
    4. I think the freedom to think, speak and believe what I choose is the essence of free people making free choices.
    5. You’re breaking nothing to me – I only wish more people were able to make more such decisions.

    likwidshoe – I have no idea if the possible tax cut comes after or before increase in energy bills; we have neither yet.

    The Whistler – I’m 100% positive it won’t, at least not all or even most of it.

    docdave
    1. I had and have no intention of ‘playing around with words’ – I pointed out that the summary given in the original post is factually incorrect. Talking about the total cost of cap and trade without mentioning any of the benefit is misleading, and undermines what could be a very good argument for the sake of having a big number to trade.
    2. The first thing I said was that I *don’t* favor cap and trade, so I’m not sure why you think I favor an energy surtax. As it happens, though, I do favor something you could, if you chose, characterize that way. I’d like to see taxes increased on extractive and polluting activities, balanced exactly with decreases in income and other direct taxes. Taxing an activity discourages people from engaging in that activity, and so long as we have taxes I’d rather we discouraged the generation of pollution than the generation of income. In addition, individuals can choose to reduce their tax liability by switching to more efficient production, which I prefer to reducing economic activity.

  • JW Morrison

    Lower taxes are promised on one side and raised on the other. Already, 23% of the population has a sax increase due to the tobacco tax raise. States are increasing taxes. Now, in spite of what Obama said, cap & trade is going to be a major tax increase, especially for the poor and lower middle class.

  • docdave

    docdave – sure, so long as you promise to use less fossil fuel in return

    Looks like you’ve bit on human caused global warming from CO2. If you’re truly interested in reducing the use of fossil fuels you should be supporting nuclear energy. Adding a surtax on fossil fuels doesn’t almost nothing but increase the burden on people that have to use it.

  • http://bopl.samharris.us/ Paul

    robert108 – You’re quick to see hate in others. That’s rarely an admirable quality. To address what might pass as the substance of your point, however, I’m in favor of free people making free decisions, based on an understanding of all the costs of their options.

    docdave – You assume without foundation that I oppose nuclear power. Is assuming what substitutes for knowing here?

  • robert108

    docdave – sure, so long as you promise to use less fossil fuel in return

    Why do you hate free people making free choices?

  • http://aresay.blogspot.com/ Aresay

    The mainstream media wouldn’t do it. So we are trying to get your important messages to the American people. 12 This post is a suggested read at, http://aresay.blogspot.com/

  • http://suitepotato.blogspot.com/ sayanything-4808

    Cap and trade is just another way for the first world to continue polluting courtesy of the left. They have the idea that they can just toss money, money by the way that isn’t theirs but that of their citizenry, to third world nations and buy up free passes to emit what they themselves claim is deadly Earth threatening pollution, as if the third world they bought the passes off of are going to magically stay third world.

    No, they like all other humans sooner or later want to be first world and will continue advancing towards it. Using oil, gas and coal, they will move through their own industrial revolutions and economic advancement, emitting the gasses we supposedly bought the right to emit, and the amount being emitted will only skyrocket because we’re doing it thinking that we’re reducing it when we’re not.

    It’s the modern secular equivalent of the Catholic Church’s indulgences that led to the reformation except it stands to fuck up our economy AND environment through cynical delusional thinking. They’ll clap each other on the back as to their wonderful work cleaning up the environment while doing exactly the opposite.

    We need to stop this crap. We need to save oil for synthetics, not because CO2 is somehow magically more dangerous now than any time in FOUR BILLION PLUS YEARS. We need powerful high density energy sources to feed our ongoing technological advancement and infrastructure improvements globally. You can’t do that with solar, wind, ocean power. You CAN with nuclear, the one they refuse to adopt. Well they short of France, South Africa, Russia…

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