Wow: Hoeven Leads Dorgan In Possible Senate Match Up 55% To 36%

Proof • November 21, 2009

Last night I posted about Byron Dorgan, facing a possible challenge from popular North Dakota Governor John Hoeven, having a health care problem. Today comes news of a poll illustrating just how big of a problem he has:

UTICA, New York – In a potential 2010 election match-up Republican Governor John Hoeven leads Democratic Senator Byron Dorgan 55% to 36% with 9% undecided. Senator Dorgan, however, leads another possible challenger, Republican Duane Sand, by a similar margin, 60% to 28% with 10% undecided.

Sand isn’t even in this race really, I think. Sources close to him get the impression that he’s just filing campaign paperwork this cycle as a way to retire some of the debt from previous campaigns.
But a possible run from Hoeven is still very much in the works, and with word I’m hearing having Hoeven announcing a run in January of 2010, Dorgan should be watching his p’s and q’s on health care right now.
Especially with these additional numbers from the poll:

Twenty-eight percent of likely North Dakotan voters support the healthcare bill proposed by President Obama compared with 62% who oppose the proposed legislation, including 48% who strongly oppose the bill. A plurality of respondents believe that both North Dakota Senators Byron Dorgan and Kent Conrad support the proposed bill.
When asked how a vote by Senator Dorgan in support of the healthcare bill would impact their potential vote for the Senator in the 2010 election, 12% of likely voters say they would be more likely to vote for Senator Dorgan as a result, while 40% would be less likely. Forty-six percent say Senator Dorgan’s vote on health care makes no difference, including 62% of likely-Dorgan voters.

Ouch.
On a related note, these numbers don’t portend good things for Rep. Earl Pomeroy either who has already voted for this health care bill and is also up for re-election in 2010.
Though I don’t like Hoeven, I’m beginning to think he should run. I’m not convinced that he’ll have as easy time against Dorgan as this poll suggests. I’m not even sure he’d win. But a Hoeven run would focus the national limelight on North Dakota and would almost certainly result in a strong challenge to the much weaker Pomeroy.
A challenge Pomeroy, I’m willing to say, probably wouldn’t survive.

Tags: Asshats, Domestic Issues, North Dakota News, Politics

http://Array jimmypop

you win the valley, you win the state.
sayanything-13

Apart from the fact that I don’t like how ND government spending has increased under Hoeven, I do have two observations about him. First, he’s an executive. Second, he’s a banker. The first leads me to believe he’d rather not be just one voice in a hundred. The second leads me to believe that, should he desire to run, he will only do so if it’s a relatively “sure thing.” Bankers (responsible ones, anyway) have a particular threshold of risk.

Cf
Djer

Let’s see, a Zogby poll reported on Newsbusters or Newsmax by a rightwing group advised by Dick Morris. I’d like to the see the poll questions, and the tabs. Since the article doesn’t quote the actual questions, I’m not sure that even Hoeven will put stock in that poll.

Dorgan losing votes in southern ND doesn’t mean much. The votes are near I-29, Fargo – Grand Forks.
Billy

I was wrong. Even with the polling document readily available, the Dorganettes do dismiss it!

http://www.zogby.com/news/wf-nd.pdf
farm4money

to rokkler13 ……. If you don’t like the way ND is, “anit-worker” maybe you should go to MN and look for a job there, oh, that is right, there are no jobs there. I rented a place to an electrician from MN who can not get work there but came here and went right to work …
billy

It’s a Zogby telephone poll, too, with a good sample, which means Dorganettes can’t just dismiss it as the product of shoddy partisanship.
jimmypop

i am sorry, but i just dont buy it.

i would have believed the hovey, but the sand margin makes me think they placed one phone call. it was to sands house. and as you can see, not even his whole family would vote for him….
http://SayAnythingBlog.com The_Whistler_ofnd

I’ll bet that Dorgan’s got polls that he’s paid for.
rokker13

I can’t believe that do nothing Hoeven would be ahead of Dorgan in anything–must be that “margin of error”. Our state would be in deep doody if Hoeven got elected to Congress–he has been the most anti-worker governor we have had–just an all over DO NOTHING for the state……..
http://sayanythingblog.com robport

Right. Because if it passes it never, ever goes away.

They’ll eventually get a majority back because politics is a cyclical game.
But if passed government health care would be here to stay.
http://sayanythingblog.com robport

I think the Dems in leadership (who are mostly safe) are perfectly willing to lose their majority over health care.
sayanything-221

Yes, that’s true.
Their majority may still be there, but their ability to get things done by themselves and their clout will be long gone.
If they take a major hit, it may also have a sobering effect with their drunkenness of political power.
http://sayanythingblog.com robport

I bet the same thing, and if we don’t see any of them in the next week it means his polls are showing pretty ugly too.
http://sayanythingblog.com robport

It’s hard to put a lot of trust into any poll on a potential matchup.

That being said, those numbers are ugly for Democrats even if they’re inflated.

And I saw that same poll that showed Pomeroy down. Especially in southern North Dakota.
sayanything-6955

An unfortunate truth, except for “dingy”Harry Reid, He is done! But you are right, health care reform, in any form is their holy grail.
http://sayanythingblog.com robport

They’re scared, for sure.

I don’t think either has been this vulnerable in a long, long time.

Hennen reported this morning that calls to Pomeroy are running 9 – 1 against his health care vote.

They’re in trouble.
sayanything-221

“That being said, those numbers are ugly for Democrats even if they’re inflated.”
True, not only for pols in your state, but some Dem Senators and Representatives nationwide.

I think the Dems are committing political suicide and they really don’t understand it.
Most voters understand that the economy must be put back on the rails through tax cuts and programs for business.
Healthcare, Cap and Trade, and all of Obama’s slush fund spending will do not but concentrate money in the government sector.
I have my doubts that any of these major programs will ever be implemented, but the Dems have already pissed in their own stew.
sayanything-6955

I believe those numbers are a bit high, but I do believe Hoeven polls way ahead of “bad rug”, I saw a poll last week showing the “Earl” down 10% to a generic with a “R” behind it, that is a poll I can believe! Earl is in trouble.
http://sayanythingblog.com robport

Given his spending, what makes you think that Hoeven is all that responsible?

Regardless, my money is on an early 2010 announcement.
sayanything-6955

And Nov 2010 is long way off, but I would bet both Dorgan and Pomeroy are looking at this with much more concern than in the past.
http://sayanythingblog.com robport

I’m not exactly a fan of Hoeven, but it is a little funny to see just how scared North Dakota liberals are right now.

I mean, things are absolutely vicious right now.

SayAnythingBlog.com

Wow: Hoeven Leads Dorgan In Possible Senate Match Up 55% To 36%

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