Say Anything Blog

Last night I posted about Byron Dorgan, facing a possible challenge from popular North Dakota Governor John Hoeven, having a health care problem.  Today comes news of a poll illustrating just how big of a problem he has:

UTICA, New York - In a potential 2010 election match-up Republican Governor John Hoeven leads Democratic Senator Byron Dorgan 55% to 36% with 9% undecided. Senator Dorgan, however, leads another possible challenger, Republican Duane Sand, by a similar margin, 60% to 28% with 10% undecided.

Sand isn’t even in this race really, I think.  Sources close to him get the impression that he’s just filing campaign paperwork this cycle as a way to retire some of the debt from previous campaigns.

But a possible run from Hoeven is still very much in the works, and with word I’m hearing having Hoeven announcing a run in January of 2010, Dorgan should be watching his p’s and q’s on health care right now.

Especially with these additional numbers from the poll:

Twenty-eight percent of likely North Dakotan voters support the healthcare bill proposed by President Obama compared with 62% who oppose the proposed legislation, including 48% who strongly oppose the bill. A plurality of respondents believe that both North Dakota Senators Byron Dorgan and Kent Conrad support the proposed bill.

When asked how a vote by Senator Dorgan in support of the healthcare bill would impact their potential vote for the Senator in the 2010 election, 12% of likely voters say they would be more likely to vote for Senator Dorgan as a result, while 40% would be less likely. Forty-six percent say Senator Dorgan’s vote on health care makes no difference, including 62% of likely-Dorgan voters.

Ouch.

On a related note, these numbers don’t portend good things for Rep. Earl Pomeroy either who has already voted for this health care bill and is also up for re-election in 2010.

Though I don’t like Hoeven, I’m beginning to think he should run.  I’m not convinced that he’ll have as easy time against Dorgan as this poll suggests.  I’m not even sure he’d win.  But a Hoeven run would focus the national limelight on North Dakota and would almost certainly result in a strong challenge to the much weaker Pomeroy.

A challenge Pomeroy, I’m willing to say, probably wouldn’t survive.